Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

[MRKEVIN7575]

Kevin,
The MJO is in phase 8 per RMM, the most widely followed/analyzed MJO charts and which also has 50 years of historical stats to analyze. In addition, the daily model MJO progs that are widely followed and posted at wx forums are of these RMM charts.

Phase 8 per RMM started on Dec 3rd. RDU had -8 F anomalies 12/3-7. In addition, the latest runs of the EPS have -8 for Dec 8th-17th. If that verifies, that would mean -8 anomalies for RDU for the 15 days Dec 3-17. That would tie it with 2002 for the 3rd coldest Dec 3-17th of the last 50 years with only 2010 (-13) and 1989 (-9) colder than 2025!

So, based on the last couple of EPS runs, RDU and much of the E part of the US will end up with one of the coldest periods on record for Dec 3-17, which is consistent in Dec with phase 8 more than any other phase:
View attachment 178563

 

[GaWx]

View attachment 178572

Kevin, the MJO isn’t in 4/5/6. It entered 8 on 12/3:

 

[MRKEVIN7575]

Kevin, the MJO isn’t in 4/5/6. It entered 8 on 12/3:
View attachment 178574

Larry, I'm just going by what LC said. Just making a statement

 

[GaWx]

Larry, I'm just going by what LC said. Just making a statement

Thanks, Kevin. I’m in total disagreement with the other Larry on this and I provided clear evidence to support my position.

 

[griteater]

Gfs does the thing in the pac we need to not fall into the December doldrums

Looks like it's even better with it this run. We'd get a lot colder if the only model we had was the GFS

 

[Rain Cold]

Looks like it's even better with it this run. We'd get a lot colder if the only model we had was the GFS

View attachment 178580

STJ bout to wake up a little bit. Those reds out there along the WC and north of AK just want to be there this year. We should just enjoy it. Doesn't happen very much these days.