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12/8/2025 Event - Repeat of Last Week?

iGRXY said:
cold air isn’t the issue this time. Dynamic cooling will do its job. Problem is you need enough moisture to saturate the column which could eat up about 0.25” of QPF to do it which is about the max you’re seeing south of the Va/NC line outside of the high country and extreme NW foothills. Like you said, I looked at the soundings and I could easily get in on the action if it wasn’t for the lack of moisture.
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It does seem odd that with the location of the H5 features in the modeling that there isn’t more of a QPF response for your area and mine. Maybe Webb or one of the other mets on here can speak to more to that
 
Chazwin said:
It does seem odd that with the location of the H5 features in the modeling that there isn’t more of a QPF response for your area and mine. Maybe Webb or one of the other mets on here can speak to more to that
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bogus moisture source
 
This is encouraging for areas in the western piedmont. I think this is our best chance of snow showers
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TheWeatherDriver said:
Ross don't you think once this system gets off the land a bit it may tap into more moisture? I know it's an upper level low, but the last shot of snow tomorrow night might be legit.
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maybe, i dont think it benefits anybody outside of the inner banks/tidewater though. cyclogenesis doesn't happen fast enough or close enough to the coast
 
Anyone have access to an in house graf model, or seen a meteorologist post one lately? I’m desperate to see some better returns over NC, and it can sometimes pick up details missed in other models. (Grasping at Straws)
 
12-18 hours before last week's event, i admittedly wasn't tracking NC much since I was up in DC/VA area so i was naturally looking more at the footprint for that leading up to commencement. but i feel like things werent THIS uncertain so soon before it started, right? by 12 hours before start time, NC basically knew things had changed negatively?
 
SimeonNC said:
Someone mentioned earlier that there was more moisture in MS than it depicted on the HRRR, how does it look now?
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This is the latest scans from Jackson, Columbus AFB, and Birmingham radars. I'm not sure what the HRRR had for these areas rn in relation to what's out there currently
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Nam takes forever to erode the dry layer between 850 and about 925. With best lift and convergence across the nc/va border into va the virga storm on the NAMs makes sense. The fv3 may be closer to reality where the dry layer gets eroded faster so we start seeing precip hitting the ground here around noon or so.
 
I know tracking winter storms are tough around here, we win some and we lose some. This one falls right in line with being aggravating for most of us. Frankly, if I see a few flakes tomorrow I’ll consider it a win and if a little does accumulate, it’s a bonus especially in early December. Good luck everyone and maybe we get some favorable surprises tomorrow.


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SD said:
Nam takes forever to erode the dry layer between 850 and about 925. With best lift and convergence across the nc/va border into va the virga storm on the NAMs makes sense. The fv3 may be closer to reality where the dry layer gets eroded faster so we start seeing precip hitting the ground here around noon or so.
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It's always something. Warm layer, dry layer, no forcing, something.... if there's a way to fail, we shall find it 🫡
 
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