CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Mitch, do you have the 12z 2m 2-12 day, that’s the 00z run
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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️
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Mitch, do you have the 12z 2m 2-12 day, that’s the 00z run
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FWIW- Alan Huffman, said this morning that we moderate the second half of December
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Yep just like we were suppose to be right now
Makeitsnow
Member
Watching the Ohio state game and seeing the first flakes of a huge system ahead for them makes me so jealous. Curious to see how the euro ai does with temps tue. Not sure how well it handles cad
NBAcentel
Member
Normally would agree with what he says but I have to disagree, especially as tropical forcing becomes more favorable towards later month, there’s also a risk that the donut/vortex over AK retrogrades back towards the GOAK and pumps a -EPO/+PNA, esp if the pacific jet extends, it’ll want to go back towards the weakness with the cutoff block on top pushing it back west
Ahhh my bad thanks for the catch. Hold up.
What was his rationale?
Bigedd09
Member
The GFS/GEFS has been rock steady on a warm up in mid December. We shall see
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Should correct as we get closer like Fro said.
11/29/25 Cool pattern through the first half of December. Moderation 2nd half? Final December forecast.
The models have been oscillating some in this period the last few days, so confidence is below normal. It will be interesting to see where the pattern goes once past mid month as we see a bit of a -NAO which could keep the East cool but some warmer signals in the NE Pacific forecast pattern.
The latest EC46 shows a warmup by week 3, with the cold air mostly over the NW US and western Canada by weeks 4/5/6 which takes us into the first 1/3 of January.
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Euro has been showing the same ol western trough trending into a eastern trough this fall though.
NBAcentel
Member
This pattern showing up is quite remarkably similar to February 2014, with the troughing backed up into Alaska under a cutoff block, same case here
MichaelJ
Member
In December 1989, we had several ice events in the Western Piedmont and very cold temps, HOWEVER, after Christmas we never had a sniff of real cold and snow after the 1st of January for pretty much the entire winter. Hopefully this will not be a repeat
Not the biggest fan of the ridge trough couplet from north of Japan into AK. In the short term not a ton of impact but it'll hurt later
Bigedd09
Member
Eh we can’t have everything on our side all the time. Gotta take the small wins.
Bigedd09
Member
But it takes everything to be perfect for the southeast to score a good snow storms
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iGRXY
Member
Not really
Southern Track
Member
Exactly. Just look at @GaWx stats on our big winter storms and you’d be surprised how some of our parameters don’t line up for winter weather in the South, but it still comes together.
As long as the trough gets worked out of AK we will be fine but with 05/06 and 11/12 appearing even loosely as analogs this is a concern this year
NBAcentel
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I have to agree, I would probably favor a cold late December here given what the base state looks like. Even if the MJO totally fades, I think that plays right into our hands given the stratospheric warming event and Nina climo which is usually kind to us in late Dec and early Jan
18z GFS at day 6:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I mentioned this a while back in here at least a few times, but global AAMa is *not* favorable for western troughing here. All this added background momentum the MJO has injected into the tropics will make it much easier to extend the jet streams in the long-run
NBAcentel
Member
Major CAD winter storm on the GFS. Exact trend you would want if you want one, confluence trending stronger each run in SE can 
And you got a glacier to the North
rburrel2
Member
Man, this day 6 threat is starting to look legit. The 12z euro ai and cmc weren’t far off from this either.
NBAcentel
Member
3 run trend of the euro model, right before the system moves in 
NCSNOW
Member
Gotta drive to richmond for kids wedding, fri into sat night. It will happen , be 1st winter storm to ever cause me whaling an nashing of teeth.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Bring the smoke!
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
12z EPS 24-hr ZR probs for day 6
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I agree with others in here in that Day 6 seems like a potentially credible threat for a CAD ice storm in NC and/or VA.
Pattern is trending favorably on most guidance and there will be a fresh snow pack to the north from the previous storm
Pattern is trending favorably on most guidance and there will be a fresh snow pack to the north from the previous storm
C-Money
Member
Looks awesome, but would feel better if the Euro showed it first and then the GFS instead.of the GFS having it first.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The euro has been living in its own world this fall with western troughs and cut offs out here. It was the last holdout for the trough that’s kicking off the snow event rn over the Midwest
Digging and slowing everything way too much.
I know it has a bias to do this, but it’s seemed so much worse this year with most every western trough evaporating when it gets well into the medium range
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NBAcentel
Member
Exactly what you want to see. Smoosh that TPV lobe further south and drag its cold nuts over the SE to allow more cold penetration and then a oozing of cold air east of the apps prior to the day 7 system 