Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

[weather bubba]

The NHS has the seven day development chances for the tropical disturbance off of the southeast coast at 60 percent now. Development will be slow to occur however this system will be at least a rainmaker for coastal areas during one of the busiest weekends of the year at the beach as it slowly moves up the coastline.

 

[Brent]

Most of them are extremely weak but still

 

[Stormsfury]

Most of them are extremely weak but still View attachment 173331

Ngl, haven't had much rain locally here in the last 2 weeks. Storms have practically bounced off a dome. Wouldn't mind having a couple inches of rain this weekend.

 

[snowc]

Tropical Storm Vince Gill update (with apologies to @GaWx )

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 30.3N 114.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.07.2025 0 30.3N 114.7W 1006 27
0000UTC 04.07.2025 12 CEASED TRACKING

 

[vtrap90]

Chantal update (with apologies to @GaWx )

Those coordinates
AT POSITION : 30.3N 114.7W

are in the Gulf of California.

 

[snowc]

Those coordinates
AT POSITION : 30.3N 114.7W

are in the Gulf of California.

OOps, sorry.

 

[Rain Cold]

Going to be some decent rain along the coast this weekend. Will probably work inland early next week.

 

[Shaggy]

Going to be some decent rain along the coast this weekend. Will probably work inland early next week.

Even trying to get some winds along the coast Saturday might be worth a drive down to play

 

[Brent]

Hurricane hunters are supposedly going out this afternoon

 

[Stormsfury]

didn't have this on my bucket list until now.. invest 92L already looks better than the previous 2 "named" storms already.

(Sure as hell didn't have a potential tropical cyclone impact on my birthday this upcoming weekend)

 

[Shaggy]

didn't have this on my bucket list until now.. invest 92L already looks better than the previous 2 "named" storms already.

(Sure as hell didn't have a potential tropical cyclone impact on my birthday this upcoming weekend)

View attachment 173341

3k nam.was a bit aggressive this morning

 

[Brent]

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an area
of low pressure located about 100 miles off the northeast Florida
coast. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally
conducive for further development, and a short-lived tropical or
subtropical depression could form late today or on Saturday while
the system drifts northward. This low is expected to move inland
over the southeastern U.S. Saturday night or early Sunday.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across
portions of west-central and southwestern Florida through early
Saturday, and across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning
later on Saturday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system later today.

 

[GaWx]

Dedicated thread for this may be warranted shortly.

Recon will take off at noon EDT and get into it during the early afternoon:

SUSPECT AREA (OFF SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 04/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1600Z
D. 30.5N 79.5W
E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST
H. WRA ACTIVATION

 

[snowc]

 

[snowc]

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 04.07.2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 30.6N 79.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.07.2025 0 30.6N 79.2W 1014 23
0000UTC 05.07.2025 12 CEASED TRACKING

 

[snowc]

Goose is now definitely cooked.