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Pattern Failboat February

Myfrotho704_ said:
This one is looking extremely mid right now ngl. Just a lot going against it
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I've been working with ensemble data and merging forecasts together recently.

I've seen a signal from about the 30th through the 2nd around these parts.

But it's just that, a small signal, especially down here.

I need to work with the data more to be able to output ZR, as the signal would be stronger with that.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This one is looking extremely mid right now ngl. Just a lot going against it
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Yeh.. Seems like we are fishing this one hard. I do feel like we are going to get another shot at a board wide Winter storm. Like a few in here have said, it just seems like it wants to be cold this Winter.
 
iGRXY said:
Odds says when you're at Hr 200 with no blocking that things won't trend favorable, but what gives this legs to me is ensemble support which is all you can ask for right now. The EPS so far really likes the ICE signal. To me this is all going to be timing with the S/W sliding east. I think we can count on a nice realistic 1035-1040 HP. Odds says this is more of a insitu event as timing just isn't our friends. But we just had a insitu event with no legit parent High and were sitting in the mid 20's at the surface for traditional CAD regions. A lot of cold air on our side of the globe at least gives me pause that we could see something here. Just wish it was closer to day 4 vs day 8.
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Not happening. To much trending towards warmer
 
Stevo24 said:
We don’t discuss the Canadian anymore after last weeks disaster
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It had a big storm when a lot of the other modeling didn’t. It may not have been right on where the storm would set up, but I’m not sure if it was worse than the modeling that was killing the storm completely.
 
Here’s what we should do honestly. The models suck. All of them. Let’s all agree to not look at a single model from here on out and we can just guess what’s gonna happen. And if you wake up and see snow or ice you can hop on here and tell everyone.
 
Stevo24 said:
Here’s what we should do honestly. The models suck. All of them. Let’s all agree to not look at a single model from here on out and we can just guess what’s gonna happen. And if you wake up and see snow or ice you can hop on here and tell everyone.
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Then everyone would just be constantly looking to mPING for hope ;). Agree with most that this 2/1 timeframe just doesn't have a look of success, need some blocking for this to work mainly because we suck when it comes to timing things up around here.
 
LickWx said:
AI model looks good for some 80s , far out but some hope. Didn’t DC hit 80 last Feb while down here was 70s?

View attachment 167072
View attachment 167073

This is a gem from the previous run

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Either way I think at some point we will get a string of at minimum 70s. January averages a couple days in the 70s , feb even more so climo says eventually . These are only a few frames as well there are more warm days in this
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I can't even remember the last time we had 70s I imagine probably early December I don't know
 
LickWx said:
AI model looks good for some 80s , far out but some hope. Didn’t DC hit 80 last Feb while down here was 70s?

View attachment 167072
View attachment 167073

This is a gem from the previous run

View attachment 167074


Either way I think at some point we will get a string of at minimum 70s. January averages a couple days in the 70s , feb even more so climo says eventually . These are only a few frames as well there are more warm days in this
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Gross, that looks terrible. It will be early Feb and borderline Miserable temp wise lol. Anything over 72 is too hot for me. I need to live in a Climate where the last 4 days is norm until May then give me 3 months of 60-75 and back to last week for 9 months
 
iGRXY said:
This is over a week away. Nobody knows where this is going so please stop speaking in absolutes already. Neither you nor I nor anybody knows if 3 days from now will be 30 and clouds or 70 and sun much less a week plus.
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Tuesday should show you we dont even know 30hrs out...Like @MitchWest said lick your finger and stick it in the wind and youre basically a short range hi-res model at this point
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
EPS looks like a favorable progression into the second week of February. Looks like it’s headed back toward the pattern are stepping out of now. Time will tell.View attachment 167085
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We’ve seen this all season and as we know the last few years patterns just seem to want to repeat themselves. This winter that pattern has Alaska and western ridging and the TPV over eastern Canada with the east coast trough. The MJO is looking to stay inside the circle as it goes through the warm phases. The fact is we not in a typical La Niña pattern. The late start to it has IMO caused to get a pattern that we typically see with a neutral ENSO
 
SD said:
I'll drive this point into this ground this look is so dangerous, easy to warm easy to cold View attachment 167088
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Yeah. Like iGRKX said, I like that the lowest heights are over here. So often, we see that mess way over the pole. Even if we go warm for a while, with the cold nearby, it's easier to reshuffle into a better pattern than to reshuffle the entire hemispheric circulation and wait wait wait.
 
Pops said:
Or maybe just maybe he's a meteorologist who sees something that he thinks could happen...I've followed them..they pretty good..maybe he's wrong but he's a forecaster and he has to FORECAST...respectfully
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agree, but also the cold forecast doesn't really cover our area to be fair
 
LickWx said:
AI model looks good for some 80s , far out but some hope. Didn’t DC hit 80 last Feb while down here was 70s?

View attachment 167072
View attachment 167073

This is a gem from the previous run

View attachment 167074


Either way I think at some point we will get a string of at minimum 70s. January averages a couple days in the 70s , feb even more so climo says eventually . These are only a few frames as well there are more warm days in this
Click to expand...
One day last feb we hit 83 and we went to the beach and saw some epic beach fog. Was like a wall a few miles inland
 
I haven't hit 70 since Nov 25th and it was exactly 70. Looking at the teleconnections (yes I know they can change) we are in for a rough spell if you like winter weather. The GFS, EURO, CMC pretty much are in agreement that the AO will be positive for a while, the EPO positive, The NAO positive, the PNA negative and the WPO neutral. Not exactly a recipe for winter weather in the SE
 
SD said:
Gfs and euro both have contraction if the strat pv poleward, strat Canadian warming, elongation of the strat pv back into north america. I've seen this movie before
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Yep. Although I favored a warm February a month or two ago, I mentioned that this is the one ace this winter had up its sleeve. It seems like a lot of models are hinting at some stratosphere-troposphere coupling as we get closer to mid February, which would be a good thing if you want the good times to continue
 
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