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Pattern Failboat February

jackendrickwx said:
Bro there’s like eight surface highs analyzed here what the hell.

It’s got low mid teens for basically all of us at that time
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Pressure is so high, the model can't find the center.

And btw, there is a 0% of a 1050 high over western PA at any point coming up.
 
Rain Cold said:
Pressure is so high, the model can't find the center.

And btw, there is a 0% of a 1050 high over western PA at any point coming up.
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You’d be lucky to get like a 1038-1042 in that placement tbh. I’m sure the mad scientist will show a 1078 directly overhead shortly
 
Jan88 said:
The outlook for Jan 2025 was above average in the south too. An we had a historic snow for the Gulf coast.i don't put much faith in long range outlooks
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We seem to score more on patterns that are forecaat to above average for the Southeast...On the contrary the highly favorable winter patterns where everything lines up for an ideal pattern, it's almost impossible to get a boardwide winter storm 🤣
 
Baggs said:
HOLD!!View attachment 167039
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Freeze frame looks pretty good but 2 possible issues here.
1 That high is a bit too far out ahead of the low and without a trailing high to help keep it south it could very well cut, especially with the GL low up there.

2 Need to see if there is a 50/50 or blocking high somewhere to keep the primary high in place or it likely gets pushed out
 
I agree that there’s a lot of flaws to this setup, and it looks more in-situ atm given the fast flow. But the GEFS took a pretty large step in a colder direction for that timeframe. Slightly faster wave and more high pressure/slower SE Canada vortex. We need to line some stars up if we want a legit in-situ or a straight up classic setup and time the wave right with the departing vortex. Difficult to do here in this H5 pattern imo and would just favor an onset type of event for now. Also need to watch out west and not try to dump anything as the cutoff moves east otherwise the cutoff will want to join waveguide and cut IMG_4622.gifIMG_4623.pngIMG_4621.png
 
Also the GEPS took a decent step at H5, although the wave is slower this run. But imo over the next few days ideally we want that trough to dig pretty far SW, as that filters in more colder air east of the apps. With how fast and progressive the pattern looks, imo we need all the cold we can possibly get. It’s ensemble range atm.IMG_4624.png
 
The 00z MOGREPS is showing a full blown ice storm, mainly b/c it's farther East than any of the other models with the cut off. We really need it to be on to something with that progression to have a chance at a major event.

For example: The MOGREPS mean has a broad cut off over southern Kansas at hr180, The 06z GFS has it southern New Mexico at that same time. The 06z GFS doesn't get it to Southern Kansas area until a full 36hrs later.
 
Insitu CADs do very well in traditional CAD areas of Va/NC/SC as the low level cold never erodes fast enough. Of course you’d much rather have a nice anchored high in place to ensure you keep the feed going but if we can get a nice 1038-1040 high to really drive in the feed out ahead, even if it starts to slide out there will still be enough to keep it going. Now where you’re going to run into trouble is it will make the midlevels much more prone to southern winds and WAA and you can really start getting into trouble with ZR as the feed isn’t strong enough to keep up all through the column. Still I’d much rather get a nice timed wave setup here but we all know how our luck is with fast progressive N/S with no Atlantic blocking.
 
If I were a worrier, I'd worry about the southern wave actually traversing the country with pace. If it delays at all, and let's be honest, why wouldn't it, you got front end ice quickly to rain or all rain.

Obviously, the cutting option is still on the table too, like Fro mentioned.

Nice to see agreement with a strong damming high show up, though. Just wish we had some way to keep the confluence in place. It's going to be hauling
 
KyloG said:
I know some thought the CMC was great for the event this week the AI led the way. Not going to doubt it again, it's been rock solid all year. And right now it's telling us to sharpen the mower blades.

View attachment 167067
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Snap back pattern in play with higher heights camping out around alaska. We have to be patient but the payoff could be nice
 
AI model looks good for some 80s , far out but some hope. Didn’t DC hit 80 last Feb while down here was 70s?

1737734246548.png
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This is a gem from the previous run

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Either way I think at some point we will get a string of at minimum 70s. January averages a couple days in the 70s , feb even more so climo says eventually . These are only a few frames as well there are more warm days in this
 
Odds says when you're at Hr 200 with no blocking that things won't trend favorable, but what gives this legs to me is ensemble support which is all you can ask for right now. The EPS so far really likes the ICE signal. To me this is all going to be timing with the S/W sliding east. I think we can count on a nice realistic 1035-1040 HP. Odds says this is more of a insitu event as timing just isn't our friends. But we just had a insitu event with no legit parent High and were sitting in the mid 20's at the surface for traditional CAD regions. A lot of cold air on our side of the globe at least gives me pause that we could see something here. Just wish it was closer to day 4 vs day 8.
 
Credit to @SD who told me this but it if the TPV falls back towards Alaska , we torch 2018 style, if it hangs out in eastern Canada we stay variable . This month is a toss up that went from certified mega torch to probably more variable but leaning warmer than normal.

My forecast is +1 to +4 of average with a margin of error of +/- 2
 
LickWx said:
Credit to @SD who told me this but it if the TPV falls back towards Alaska , we torch 2018 style, if it hangs out in eastern Canada we stay variable . This month is a toss up that went from certified mega torch to probably more variable but leaning warmer than normal.

My forecast is +1 to +4 of average with a margin of error of +/- 2
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Long range model are definitely trending warmer , it could change of course
 
Seems to me as if there is a lot of variability with exact location of timing and wedge placement. Just gonna sit back in watch while we moderate back to the norms.
 
178b2e7876b76353777bfd7ad4d8853f.jpg

12 Canadian should be colder just depends on how quick the cutoff slides east


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