• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Failboat February

SD said:
I'll drive this point into this ground this look is so dangerous, easy to warm easy to cold View attachment 167088
Click to expand...

Yeah that looks a lot like Feb 1989, which is the epitome of bi-polar sensible weather in a pattern like this.

Look at this chunk of data from Henderson NC for example. We went from highs in the 80s to a major-historic snowstorm within 2 days.


IMG_4531.jpeg
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah that looks a lot like Feb 1989, which is the epitome of bi-polar sensible weather in a pattern like this.

Look at this chunk of data from Henderson NC for example. We went from highs in the 80s to a major-historic snowstorm within 2 days.


View attachment 167114
Click to expand...
I saw that 89 had a lot of the record highs for rdu early in Feb and wondered if we might go that way
 
tennessee storm said:
Pna looks going negative
Click to expand...
seems like if you flip the EPO negative which seems to be to be the consensus going forward, the PNA will follow suit. I have my doubts we’ll get higher heights through AK and lower heights through the western US for an extended period. Given history and the pattern we’ve been in the last two months. We’ll see though. It’s why we’re all here.

A few options I see to make it a fab Feb. Retrograde that Low back towards the Aleutians. Maybe. Also if we can inch that western trough further east we should get a response in our NAO territory and probably get some blocking back in the pattern. Just glancing at what the EPS has been selling for the last couple days it looks like we have a shot at the EPO, AO, and NAO all becoming favorable pretty soon IMG_1310.jpeg
 
Last edited:
Webberweather53 said:
Yep. Although I favored a warm February a month or two ago, I mentioned that this is the one ace this winter had up its sleeve. It seems like a lot of models are hinting at some stratosphere-troposphere coupling as we get closer to mid February, which would be a good thing if you want the good times to continue
Click to expand...

Wait, I thought that the reason why we were doing so well and cold this winter was the strat and trop were decoupled... with the trop PV meandering down to SE Canada, on our side of the globe, even though the strat was strong and at the pole. How will coupling it keep us cold? I would think all the cold would retreat if that happens?
 
rburrel2 said:
The 00z eps is pretty dreamy looking at the end of its run. I feel pretty good about the middle of February being loaded with chances to score.
Click to expand...
If this Feb is anything like 1989 it'll be crazy. The upstate had an icestorm on Feb 18 that year and barely missed a major snowstorm on Feb 23-24. I think 1989 was a LaNina winter too.
 
JHS said:
If this Feb is anything like 1989 it'll be crazy. The upstate had an icestorm on Feb 18 that year and barely missed a major snowstorm on Feb 23-24. I think 1989 was a LaNina winter too.
Click to expand...
Not trying to be argumentative, but we have been Enso neutral so far this winter. This is One reason I think we have had a colder than predicted winter. ENSO neutrals, which is where we have been until now, are usually cold in my area of the SE. Noaa has issued a LaNina advisory and considers us to now be in LaNina, but the index as of the Jan 21 appears to be -.6 which is technically LaNina barely. There is a chart you can look at to see the 3 month values https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
 
SnowNiner said:
Wait, I thought that the reason why we were doing so well and cold this winter was the strat and trop were decoupled... with the trop PV meandering down to SE Canada, on our side of the globe, even though the strat was strong and at the pole. How will coupling it keep us cold? I would think all the cold would retreat if that happens?
Click to expand...
The strat/trop coupling happening in Canada is favorable for cold nearby with a persistent Hudson Bay vortex (this exact evolution happened in 2014) vs a strat/trop coupling near Asia
 
If we cutoff and chop off a block into Alaska we are probably going to cook. If we keep the ridge from going poleward and more GOA/Aleutian centric then we suck. Goal here is going poleward and chopping the ridge into a block so you can speed up the pattern under it
 
NCSNOW said:
Ill have to go back an look. But March 2014 I beleive we had like 3-4 seperate frozen events, maybe they kicked off late Feb and rolled into March.

Feb 11
March 3
March 6
March 17
Click to expand...

Yeah, March 2014 was one of the more wintry Marches for the NC Piedmont in recent memory. Not the most snow (March 2009 would beat it with just one event), but with three separate events it was pretty memorable and the ice storm was pretty memorable in GSO (I lost power for several days...although it topped out in the 60s the day after...this was an in-situ CAD storm that resulted in easily warning criteria ice and a lot of sleet in the Triad).

Minor event, but fun: https://www.webberweather.com/uploads/1/1/9/9/119943685/march_3-4_2014_nc_snowmap.gif

Major ice storm for the Triad: https://www.webberweather.com/uploads/1/1/9/9/119943685/march_6-7_2014_nc_snowmap.gif

Minor storm, but was cool in that it occurred during the day in mid-March, dealing with the sun angle: https://www.webberweather.com/uploads/1/1/9/9/119943685/march_17-18_2014_rah_snowmap.gif

I was in Florida in 2018, but that March was also pretty memorable looking at the stats. I actually was visiting up in the Triad at my parents' for the March 24 storm, which was cool.
 
WEATHERBOYROY said:
Not trying to be argumentative, but we have been Enso neutral so far this winter. This is One reason I think we have had a colder than predicted winter. ENSO neutrals, which is where we have been until now, are usually cold in my area of the SE. Noaa has issued a LaNina advisory and considers us to now be in LaNina, but the index as of the Jan 21 appears to be -.6 which is technically LaNina barely. There is a chart you can look at to see the 3 month values https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
Click to expand...
I made a post about this the other day. The fact is that with ENSO going into a La Niña so late, late December to early January and being so weak at that, we are really seeing a neutral winter. Webb has mentioned 2013-2014 a lot lately and if you look we are following a very similar progression to that winter
 
WEATHERBOYROY said:
Not trying to be argumentative, but we have been Enso neutral so far this winter. This is One reason I think we have had a colder than predicted winter. ENSO neutrals, which is where we have been until now, are usually cold in my area of the SE. Noaa has issued a LaNina advisory and considers us to now be in LaNina, but the index as of the Jan 21 appears to be -.6 which is technically LaNina barely. There is a chart you can look at to see the 3 month values https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
Click to expand...

We are in a La Niña by any measure and this winter has behaved like a weak one normally does. You have to be weary of these arbitrary enso definitions like ONI which use 30 year base periods that warm bias the current values. The background climate is warming so fast that La Niña in real time looks weaker than it actually is once it’s deep in our rear view mirror
 
The difference between us torching and being bitterly cold here is razor thin. Honestly we’re probably going to get at least some of both in the coming weeks.

Volatility has been the name of the game this winter and that is probably going to get turned up to 11 in February
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top