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Pattern Failboat February

Iceagewhereartthou said:
I think 2018-2020 was about the low/inactive phase of that 11 year cycle and we have been in the more active phase this year; hence the sunspots. It could be that even the active phases of these cycles are decreasing if we're entering in a greater overall minimum period?
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Interestingly, there was only a .22% reduction in total solar irradiance during the last GSM but a significant decrease in the interplanetary magnetic field which resulted in a 19% increase in cosmic radiation creating high clouds on earth. These combined effects dropped the average temperature of the globe by 1 degree Celsius. It was more pronounced in the high latitudes, though. We are still in a time of increasing solar output and we've warmed 1.4 degrees since 1710. So, we should expect to be around .4 degrees warmer than the average temps found in 1710 during the peak of the GSM. This may be in the 2050's So quite a few of us won't be around to measure it. After this GSM we go back to warming until the next one in the 24th century. It doesn't take much change from the sun to really alter our climate on Earth. Obviously, each individual weather event is not directly related, but the conditions that allow for the favorable base states where they can exist will be heavily influenced by the sun's cycles. The GSM started in 2020. Cycle 28 will return us to normal solar output and warmer times.

Jamestown was founded in 1607, about 40 years prior to the start of the Maunder Minimum, and the birth of our nation really took off during during the 1700's, so I don't expect we will have much trouble adapting to this one, especially since we are starting from a higher average global temperature.

Could make for great winter weather events in the future, though!
 
rburrel2 said:
None of the 12z AI models like this threat at all. Starting to think the GFS is out to lunch with the strong cold press and subsequent CAD.
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Euro AI had an amped up warm storm for this last one didn’t it until a few days out? I’m not sure long range is the AI wheelhouse. I’d go with ensembles.
 
I'm convinced that the AI models are just fancy ensembles. They will never have the resolution to answer finer details. I think they are "learning" off historical data and you can never play the future by the past. You need to model the fluid dynamics of the system for best results. They should be used like ensembles.
 
The weather across the country will ride heavily on when and how strong that cut off low ejects from areas out west and moves towards the east.. until models figure that out (which they inherently have an extreme difficult time doing even in the medium range) we are going to be a bit in the dark about how the pattern evolves heading into the first have of February. Many and all options still on the table.
 
I'm not prepared to coronate the AI models just yet. I'm glad we have them as another tool, and it's certainly fun watching what they show. I assume they will only get better with time.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
The weather across the country will ride heavily on when and how strong that cut off low ejects from areas out west and moves towards the east.. until models figure that out (which they inherently have an extreme difficult time doing even in the medium range) we are going to be a bit in the dark about how the pattern evolves heading into the first have of February. Many and all options still on the table.
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Yes, as illustrated by number of various solutions on the GEFS which average out to look "zonal" across the U.S., which we know is not going to be the case.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
The weather across the country will ride heavily on when and how strong that cut off low ejects from areas out west and moves towards the east.. until models figure that out (which they inherently have an extreme difficult time doing even in the medium range) we are going to be a bit in the dark about how the pattern evolves heading into the first have of February. Many and all options still on the table.
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I remember awhile ago someone had mentioned 9/10 similar years for jan resulted in Feb being cold too. It's sounding based on modeling like we keep holding off on warmth and with the MJO tracking towards the circle and left again I may bet we go cold.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
They’ve been talking about the gulf coast blizzard this morning on talk radio. An expert was talking about how we’re starting to see the effects of a grand solar minimum which started in 2020. Thoughts?
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This is really interesting to me. I don’t know when it was to have started taking effect but I do remember reading about it way back in 2015. Since 2015 Nashville has had some incredible winters compared to the first 14 years of the century. Even this year I’m at 4.5 inches of snow. Since 2015 I’ve had a 12 inch 8 inch 7.5 inch and 6 inch snow with a bunch of 3-4 inch events mixed in. From 2004-2014 this area had 1 storm hit 6 inches.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I remember awhile ago someone had mentioned 9/10 similar years for jan resulted in Feb being cold too. It's sounding based on modeling like we keep holding off on warmth and with the MJO tracking towards the circle and left again I may bet we go cold.
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I honestly wouldn't mind about 10 days of zonal flow, got some yard stuff to take care of.
 
There is a big flaw to this pattern though, and for our chance, big problem being that there’s no NATL blocking, and there’s a GOAK vortex/AK trough in place. Gonna make the northern stream very quick and progressive. Literally gonna have to take perfect timing IMG_4612.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
There is a big flaw to this pattern though, and for our chance, big problem being that there’s no NATL blocking, and there’s a GOAK vortex/AK trough in place. Gonna make the northern stream very quick and progressive. Literally gonna have to take perfect timing View attachment 167009
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Exactly. HP is strong but scoots out immediately. No confluence. Counting on the wave to eject is long odds. My guess is either front end thump to rain or all rain.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I remember awhile ago someone had mentioned 9/10 similar years for jan resulted in Feb being cold too. It's sounding based on modeling like we keep holding off on warmth and with the MJO tracking towards the circle and left again I may bet we go cold.
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I remember 2009/2010 winter. The -NAO I believe, was very persistent and kept appearing. It was somewhat west based if I recall. It was quite remarkable. This year does seem similar. Maybe a surprise cold period in February after we warm up to a little above normal for a few weeks?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
this is just a deep cold pool across NA. Normally you have to sacrifice a region to get cold anomalies to the other and I don’t see that here in January. Small AN pools back west. Maine looks weird. Pretty atypical I thinkView attachment 166981
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Idk how old you are but older members can remember wall to wall cold snaps save South Florida, South Texas, or Southern Cal.
Some of the ones I'm about to mention included those areas too,
Maybe not all at the same time but close.
This happened in the 70's & maybe early 80's if memory serves.
Can't remember if it's RC or Griteater,
Maybe both that has corresponded with me about these coast to coast cold snaps.
I think 76-77 & 77-78 definitely had these type of cold snaps.
Possible 78-83 had them also at smaller timeframes with a little less expansive Geo Areas but still close from coast to coast.
Good conversation for us weather nerds!

Curious was this on 98.9 this morning or another radio show?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
We ain’t done View attachment 167002
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Patterns tend to repeat.
Look at what has gone on in our country since 2018.
Till this year it sort of changed.
The West & Central conus has been cold,
East warm.
I don't think winter is over bc we are clearly in a different pattern.
Will it warm?
Of course.
Will it stay?
I highly doubt it!
We are going into a true cold pattern IMO.
Just a feeling but based upon the history of patterns repeating!
Time will tell.
 
Most models are keeping the ENSO conditions neutral/to negative (averaging mostly neutral). The pattern won't be a full blown La Nina, but rather a neutral ENSO pattern. The forefront within the pattern will be the 3 active branches of the jets going forward into February. Many of features taking place across the Pacific and you can easily make out the jet branches at 250mb. I've been noticing an STR (subtropical ridge) on the models, but hopefully the STR won't become dominated if it actually comes into place. If so, it would be difficult for convergence with the polar jet further to the south. I don't want to get ahead of myself here though, because there is going to be a lot of features taking place with this pattern.
(ESNO model by: IRI)
Screenshot_20250123-210218_Gallery.jpgScreenshot_20250123-210229_Gallery.jpgeps_z500a_namer_44.jpggfs_uv250_npac_39.jpg

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