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Pattern Failboat February

Good high pressure setup for a winter storm but that’s a little too much ridge. Although it’s hard to imagine a scenario where this ridge gets any stronger up through the lakes and SE Canada. Might get interesting when/if we start to walk that back

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
They’ve been talking about the gulf coast blizzard this morning on talk radio. An expert was talking about how we’re starting to see the effects of a grand solar minimum which started in 2020. Thoughts?
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We have had northern lights in the south and we are in a minimum? I am no expert in this field but that seems odd to me.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
They’ve been talking about the gulf coast blizzard this morning on talk radio. An expert was talking about how we’re starting to see the effects of a grand solar minimum which started in 2020. Thoughts?
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Grand marauder minimum was first brought up back in 2017 or 18, and it is supposed to last until 2053. It was also said that the last one was during the little ice age of the 1700s. Of course there are more outlets that disregard anything like that could happen in the current state, but it is an interesting argument. The food shortages and famine from something remotely close to the little ice age would wreck this planet if it were to happen today.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Good high pressure setup for a winter storm but that’s a little too much ridge. Although it’s hard to imagine a scenario where this ridge gets any stronger up through the lakes and SE Canada. Might get interesting when/if we start to walk that back

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Yeah we need some squeeze action with this pattern. Need to tuck the SE can vortex further SW ideally atp where it’s digging around Boston and points east, the S/W around Dallas with nothing messy up top digging in, just a clean eastward propagating trailer and we get smacked
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
They’ve been talking about the gulf coast blizzard this morning on talk radio. An expert was talking about how we’re starting to see the effects of a grand solar minimum which started in 2020. Thoughts?
Click to expand...
It is true, but almost nobody is talking about it. It's going to be rough for the next 35 to 50 years. It's the sun. The energy emitted is decreasing. We've likely reached the max of the current solar max and it is starting to wane. The sunspots are decreasing as a sign of this. Expect more seismic activity as we go. Tonga was an example. It helped mitigate some of the affects of the solar grand minimum but that moisture is slowly precipitating out of the upper atmosphere. A few VEI 5 eruptions from terrestrial volcanoes and the global temps will plummet. This era will rival the 1650 to 1750 era. I mean, places in Florida just smashed snowfall records set in the little ice age era of the mid 1850's. England has been covered in snow and severe cold (just like in Charles Dicken's time). This is just the beginning. The next thing to watch for will be "late" cold snaps in April and May and early cold cutting off the maturation of grain crops August/September. This will start to disrupt the high lattitude growing seasons.

We need to use technology and carbon based fuels to adjust quickly.
 

Learning - Global Warming facts and fiction

Great writeup by Dr. Roy Spencer of Huntsville about how official temps are artificially inflated by where the censors are and how this needs to be addressed http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/01/trumps-noaa-administrator-must-address-the-temperature-record-controversy/
southernwx.com
 
weatherfide said:
It is true, but almost nobody is talking about it. It's going to be rough for the next 35 to 50 years. It's the sun. The energy emitted is decreasing. We've likely reached the max of the current solar max and it is starting to wane. The sunspots are decreasing as a sign of this. Expect more seismic activity as we go. Tonga was an example. It helped mitigate some of the affects of the solar grand minimum but that moisture is slowly precipitating out of the upper atmosphere. A few VEI 5 eruptions from terrestrial volcanoes and the global temps will plummet. This era will rival the 1650 to 1750 era. I mean, places in Florida just smashed snowfall records set in the little ice age era of the mid 1850's. England has been covered in snow and severe cold (just like in Charles Dicken's time). This is just the beginning. The next thing to watch for will be "late" cold snaps in April and May and early cold cutting off the maturation of grain crops August/September. This will start to disrupt the high lattitude growing seasons.

We need to use technology and carbon based fuels to adjust quickly.
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this is just a deep cold pool across NA. Normally you have to sacrifice a region to get cold anomalies to the other and I don’t see that here in January. Small AN pools back west. Maine looks weird. Pretty atypical I thinkIMG_1290.jpeg
 
Definitely need a better HP placement for much of the SE to score. Slide that a few hundred miles west and let the S/W kick out smooth and we will be golden.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Good high pressure setup for a winter storm but that’s a little too much ridge. Although it’s hard to imagine a scenario where this ridge gets any stronger up through the lakes and SE Canada. Might get interesting when/if we start to walk that back

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Relax that ridge just a tad and you basically have the basic CAD/Miller B look.
 
rburrel2 said:
GFS keeps giving the look of a once in a decade type wedge building in. I feel pretty good about that happening... I think major storm or not will mainly depend on the timing of when the cut off ejects East.
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It continues to show a strong signal...12Z about to be a heckuva CAD storm
 
CMC looks like it's trending towards the GFS with the mega-CAD... just need the Southwest cut off to make it far enough East to do something for us.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
this is just a deep cold pool across NA. Normally you have to sacrifice a region to get cold anomalies to the other and I don’t see that here in January. Small AN pools back west. Maine looks weird. Pretty atypical I thinkView attachment 166981
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Yeah, and the globe itself is quite warm right now overall. The CONUS is a small part of the world in the grand scheme of things. I’m also not a huge fan of ascribing specific weather events to climate…sure, the climate changing might make certain events more likely, but it’s not as if extreme weather events didn’t always happen, so it’s impossible to draw a legitimate direct inference.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
That’s a lot of ridgeView attachment 166987
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Gonna need the cut off low to open up as it moves east and dampen out/dump its contents over the Southeast. Sorta like January 2011.

Don't want it to hang back and interact with the next trough, that'll eventually cut way to our West. Our chance here is out ahead of that mess.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Mountains / and Frosty NW Piedmont Licking their chops with a beautiful wedge signature showing up
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We are not licking our chops for an ice storm, want no part of that. This looks like it will be a transfer or hybrid Miller A/B system and I hope it is warm enough to rain., Plus this is in lala land and we saw how the last one went early to late in the models
 
Canadian is too slow and delayed with the cut off for a winter storm. That's gonna be the thing to watch here. We need it to keep chugging East.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
this is just a deep cold pool across NA. Normally you have to sacrifice a region to get cold anomalies to the other and I don’t see that here in January. Small AN pools back west. Maine looks weird. Pretty atypical I thinkView attachment 166981
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If you look up VEI 7 events you will notice that the most recent ones are 1815 and 1610. Another VEI 7 is certainly possible (think Tambora and Santorini). VEI 6 is almost a certainty (Pinatubo, Krakatoa).
 
rburrel2 said:
Canadian is too slow and delayed with the cut off for a winter storm. That's gonna be the thing to watch here. We need it to keep chugging East.
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Uh that’s not true. That’s a pretty big ice storm in the immediate CAD areas. 27 degrees here with 0.6 qpf and still going at the end of the run.

Globals locking in on a CAD event at this range is a big signal for me.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Uh that’s not true. That’s a pretty big ice storm in the immediate CAD areas. 27 degrees here with 0.6 qpf and still going at the end of the run.

Globals locking in on a CAD event at this range is a bit signal for me.
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Yea, that just shows you how wide the goal posts are potentially with this storm. Even with that much of a delay with the shortwave/cut off and it tracking over Iowa. It still produces lots of Ice for the CAD area's.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Good high pressure setup for a winter storm but that’s a little too much ridge. Although it’s hard to imagine a scenario where this ridge gets any stronger up through the lakes and SE Canada. Might get interesting when/if we start to walk that back

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I agree. Move that HP over New York instead of the Atlantic and we would be in business. We've got plenty of model runs to go to see if this event has potential.
 
MichaelJ said:
We are not licking our chops for an ice storm, want no part of that. This looks like it will be a transfer or hybrid Miller A/B system and I hope it is warm enough to rain., Plus this is in lala land and we saw how the last one went early to late in the models
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Speak for yourself....I just want a winter storm one way or another. Everyone always freaks out about these models ICE progs and it never goes over like a 1/4" so relax. Yes ....the answer to your question is ive lived through a bad ICE Storm in 2002. Didnt have power for 5 days, sure dont prefer that. However I like extreme weather....so give me something to track, experience
 
NCSNOW said:
The suns Poles just both completely flipped. Does it ever 11 years cycle. Yes we are coming down biggly on solar hyper cycle, will trend down for several years before spiking back up.
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I think 2018-2020 was about the low/inactive phase of that 11 year cycle and we have been in the more active phase this year; hence the sunspots. It could be that even the active phases of these cycles are decreasing if we're entering in a greater overall minimum period?
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Speak for yourself....I just want a winter storm one way or another. Everyone always freaks out about these models ICE progs and it never goes over like a 1/4" so relax. Yes ....the answer to your question is ive lived through a bad ICE Storm in 2002. Didnt have power for 5 days, sure dont prefer that. However I like extreme weather....so give me something to track, experience
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If it is wintry I will take it. I have been without power for almost two weeks due to an ice storm. Just comes with the event. Not like we get them all the time.
 
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