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Pattern Failboat February

If it warms up first of February you will see. Already seeing chickweed and some henbit now. Chickweed and henbit are winter weeds.
We usually get a bunch of pigweed but it mostly died out from drought/extreme cold this year.
 
I do really like that big PV lobe still sitting just north of the Hudson and the trough new Hawaii.
We need a 2014 Feb pattern where the AK ridge build poleward and we got this super pacific block dumping cold into the conus. I'm tired of a PNA ridge trying to go up only to be pulled back west.

But I do think we got first week or two Feb to deal with a cold west warm east.

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We need a 2014 Feb pattern where the AK ridge build poleward and we got this super pacific block dumping cold into the conus. I'm tired of a PNA ridge trying to go up only to be pulled back west.

But I do think we got first week or two Feb to deal with a cold west warm east.

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That probably happens as we roll forward. It's been a pretty chilly winter by modern standards, at least. It can't be wall to wall cold. Besides, I'm sure many need a break after chasing this event for so long.
 
This is not the look I am wanting. Got a nice damming high to the NE but with a cutter would be a nasty ice storm; no thanks. Need a banana high to keep the LP south.

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Yeah these looks don’t keep me up at night. 99/100 this setup will find a way to rain here
 
This is not the look I am wanting. Got a nice damming high to the NE but with a cutter would be a nasty ice storm; no thanks. Need a banana high to keep the LP south.

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Haven’t had an ice storm here in my area in many years. Anything wintry for me.
 
Many members with solid below normal for the conus. I don't think the SE has tracked it's last winter event this season.

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100% agree. I know that conventional wisdom says that Feb is toast, but I don't think so. As long as we keep the coldest anoms on our side of the globe in north eastern Canada, we're in the game.

We'll have a either opportunity to track. As soon as I saw @rburrel2 's height map above, I knew ice was in the cards. That's probably what we'll have to deal with for part of Feb...ice and wedges. We should first moderate a little, though.
 
RDU’s last Feb accumulating snow was 5 years ago…that’s got to be a record of sorts. And before that it was 2015. So in past 10 years we’ve had 1 Feb snow.

For arguement sakes, accumulating meaning more than 0.5” of snow.



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Both the EPS/GEFS have slowly shifted the Aleutian ridge more towards Alaska in Early February. This **may** curve the more classic nina look but its a step in the right direction. The GEFS specifically is trending towards a more extended Pac Jet too.
 

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