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Pattern Failboat February

That's 4 runs in a row with a CAD storm. Plus it's got some EPS support. Also the EPS/CMC/GEFS 5h means all look conducive to something like this with how they set up around day 7/8.

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Needs more blue... tired of pink and orange. If NO and FL can get the blue so can we.... dang it.
 
GEFS is trending rather quickly to a look favorable at H5 for a CAD/miller B winter storm View attachment 166909
This is why I really haven’t been worried so far in Blacksburg. We are guaranteed a solid snow CAD setup every other winter. We didn’t get one last year so this should track.
 
Was the Feb 14 a CAD/Miller B storm Fro?
Not Fro, but I believe it was a hybrid A/B. It definitely has a very strong CAD that went as far south as southern GA and as far west as into central AL at one point. The initial low moved along the Gulf Coast to about Panama City before coming inland and then reforming on the other side of the CAD off the GA coast.
 
I feel pretty good about this one as far as a wintry storm threat for someone in the CAD regions (especially close to the escarpment). Not necessarily as a big snow threat but it could be quite the ice storm. Hoping for more snow, of course, though. 🙏

Of course, it may also fall apart and cut to Chicago.
 
Needs more blue... tired of pink and orange. If NO and FL can get the blue so can we.... dang it.

Just don’t be a complete cutter, keep it south of us and I think it would be. Cold in Canada means we have some super cad potential. Probably strong enough and cold enough for 85 snow if all goes as usual for past storms the last 10 years.

What do you bet through the cut off wanders west and gets stuck in the base of the western ridge. That’s been the theme this year of us getting trolled.
 
This is not a warm look for the eastern US. I'm not sure we're going to have a sustained warm-up this year. We'll see.

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How many times in the last decade has the coldest air in the hemisphere been on our side, especially for this long? Almost feels like it’s just a matter of time before we get a hit.
 
It’s felt like the last few winter storms have been the same story, but big TPV parked over SE Canada. Felt like towards veri it digs more into the EC and the wave in the SW gets held back further. But we’ll see View attachment 166920
Fully expect that to happen again. Those waves get stuck. Not surprising without a strong STJ.
 
It’s felt like the last few winter storms have been the same story, but big TPV parked over SE Canada. Felt like towards veri it digs more into the EC and the wave in the SW gets held back further. But we’ll see View attachment 166920

It probably gets stuck like the last 2. But imagine if it didn’t, with the CAD the gfs had. Man, it would be historic.
 
It probably gets stuck like the last 2. But imagine if it didn’t, with the CAD the gfs had. Man, it would be historic.
Yea some of our bigger Cold air damming winter storms have happened during retrogression, problem is do we kick the wave out the SW and do we time the EC trough moving out to allow a cold high to slide and settle. Not much blocking either so timing could be a issue
 
It’s felt like the last few winter storms have been the same story, but big TPV parked over SE Canada. Felt like towards veri it digs more into the EC and the wave in the SW gets held back further. But we’ll see View attachment 166920
That’s cool. Push it back west another 250 miles to send a ridge up the west coast and we can get snow in Florida again
 
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