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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

ya the chaser is slower this run a bit, lets see if it can catch up....lead wave is slower as well
 
The s/w over the Hudson Bay digging more is one reason why our trailer looks slower & weaker, the more it digs, the more the heights to its west rise, which slows down and weakens the trailer a tad. That trend needs to come to a halt
 
This run, likely a no go. Too slow with the secondary wave.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The s/w over the Hudson Bay digging more is one reason why our trailer looks slower & weaker, the more it digs, the more the heights to its west rise, which slows down and weakens the trailer a tad. That trend needs to come to a halt
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The trailer is starting to catch up at hr 60. its not that far off from the 18z run. it has DEF been slower this run, but it appears to be catching up
 
chaser has caught up and pretty much like 18z run at hr 72 and our main wave is starting to drop in further west and slower and more tilt, in a good way
 
Cmc
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I still think this look has potential let's see how it plays out...
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I know that's a positive tilt trough, but what do you call that type of orientation? Shouldn't the wave be more in a upright "U" shape for a storm system to form?
 
The overall longwave looks more positively tilted this run, we need that northern stream trailer to dig deeper into the side of the ridge over the west coast... The SLP developing closer to FL has more to do w/ the GFS's convective feedback issues rather than synoptic-scale flow changes
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol the spurious vort lobe east of FL is gone on this GFS run and isn't a surprise given the convective feedback issues I alluded to earlier
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To me, it appears that the heights are starting to rise in the West Atlantic as well vs previous runs...maybe not though
 
93Storm said:
I know that's a positive tilt trough, but what do you call that type of orientation? Shouldn't the wave be more in a upright "U" shape for a storm system to form?
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A storm can form if the wave is positively, neutrally, or negatively tilted, the negatively tilted trough is inherently unstable and draws energy from the jet stream at its expense and favors a low developing more quickly
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Well, hopefully the CMC isn't a no go due to similar reasons with the NAM.
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Yep. A vorticity spoke churned around the Hudson Bay vortex and caused a slight deviation in the trailer dive...but missed it but altered it enough to cause a problem

On a lighter note, if the UKMET still can hold onto its 12z solution...breathe a sigh of relief. If UKMET gets worse...well...
 
I don’t like how the 00z runs have looked. Here’s to hoping the Doc looks better.


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Stormsfury said:
Yep. A vorticity spoke churned around the Hudson Bay vortex and caused a slight deviation in the trailer dive...but missed it but altered it enough to cause a problem

On a lighter note, if the UKMET still can hold onto its 12z solution...breathe a sigh of relief. If UKMET gets worse...well...
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Alright, good. Maybe the NAM is just being the NAM outside of it's range.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Convective feedback issues really start hurting the GFS beyond 72 hours, creates a fictitious vortex NE of our main low center off the SE coast. Smh this model is a piece of crap when there's a lot of diabatic heating involved
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How can it ever be trusted for tropical development if that is the case? ;/
 
Webberweather53 said:
A storm can form if the wave is positively, neutrally, or negatively tilted, the negatively tilted trough is inherently unstable and draws energy from the jet stream at its expense and favors a low developing more quickly
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How come a low dosen't develop sooner? Is it because of that monstrous 1050-1040mb high pressure? Because the trough is positively tilted before the wave is over the southwestern Atlantic.
 
UKMET East. Darn. On to the next.

UKMET is phase happy. Very bad signs it does not phase quickly for 00z.
 
Shawn said:
How can it ever be trusted for tropical development if that is the case? ;/
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It's sorta okay with TCs that develop off of pre-existing frontal boundaries or from cold-core upper level lows because the convection associated w/ them is often more modest and they're inherently lacking a deeper warm core, but aside from that it's assumed to be utter garbage even inside day 3-4 whenever there's a chance for development in the monsoon trough or CA monsoon gyre.
 
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