Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

[packfan98]

Best GEFS run yet. Mean low pressure is ever so slightly more progressive, but substantially colder run at 850.

 

[KyloG]

Finally…we can work with this.

 

[Webberweather53]

Looks like a much different story for us across the mid/Deep South. This will be an extremely high impact event across northern MS and AL if it plays out like the model/met consensus is thinking.

Yeah the Carolinas western neighbors (TN for example) definitely are dealing with a more higher level event

 

[NBAcentel]

 

[jimmy]

Take a look at the ridge continuing to strengthen across the midwest U.S., as shown in the GEFS. It's centered over the Rockies and stretches northward into western Canada. This amplification of the ridge helps suppress Gulf air intrusion by forcing the cold air to funnel southward into the central and eastern U.S., as indicated by the deep blue anomalies in the Southeast. This setup reinforces the colder pattern we've been seeing trend stronger with each run.

 

[Arcc]

Models were coming in at 5 degrees warmer than what they should have been today

Watch the southern trend tonight into tomorrow


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I know this sounds good, but history has taught me time and time again that it really has no effect on the storm. This type of reasoning leads to broken hearts.

 

[Webberweather53]

18z GEFS once again slowing down the upper trough over me, which it has been doing for a couple days.

This flattens the wave out more and allows more cold air to get out in front of it. Hence, the slightly colder/suppressed shift on this run

 

[SNOWMANN]

I wouldn’t be surprised if the GFS continues to increase amounts for those around Asheville to Boone. 6” could turn into 10-12” should the Gulf of America not rob in any moisture. Good overrunning and iso lift can do it for western NC.

I agree I think totals will only increase for south facing slopes up into the foothills.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

18z GEFS once again slowing down the upper trough over me, which it has been doing for a couple days.

This flattens the wave out more and allows more cold air to get out in front of it. Hence, the slightly colder/suppressed shift on this run

View attachment 160988

That’s what the central NC peeps need


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[NBAcentel]

With the GFS solution to, all that ZR likely isn’t true and is a issue it has, probably a lot more IP on the mid-northern fringe of that ZR footprint

 

[wow]

Is there precedence for higher snow totals over N AL/MS/GA than over W NC with this kind of storm track? The ICON seemed to have a more uniform stripe that seems more realistic.

 

[Stormlover]

SREF mean up to around 5 inches at Huntsville, with 4 members around 10

 

[iGRXY]

If you guys can make it 36-48 more hours until we get into short range models specialty, I think a lot of people are going to be happy. Models under estimating the cold already and that FGEN banding holding on longer than expected are going to make several of us happy.

 

[NCWeatherhound]

In the Sandhills, we're used to living on storm table scraps. The GEFS continues to push more scraps our way through the day.

 

[Psalm 148:8]

mama cita..... only one member with the rain/mix line up in to Tennessee this time, good sign. The 12z run had 8 of 20 way up there.

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Incredible how many of those panels show basically the same precip type result! FFC here at mby showing snow at onset, mix, then rain.. pretty much what the consensus is here.

 

[wow]

If you guys can make it 36-48 more hours until we get into short range models specialty, I think a lot of people are going to be happy. Models under estimating the cold already and that FGEN banding holding on longer than expected are going to make several of us happy.

Very possible.. I remember once we got within 60 hrs or so with the Feb 04 storm the CAD got stronger and stronger to push the r/s line well south of 85

 

[Webberweather53]

View attachment 160989View attachment 160990With the GFS solution to, all that ZR likely isn’t true and is a issue it has, probably a lot more IP on the mid-northern fringe of that ZR footprint

Yeah the GFS not only has problems with handling shallow cold air mass extent, but also usually underestimates the depth of said air mass.

The GFS is actually doing exactly that over me as we speak as this backdoor cold front moves across southern NM.

If we can overcome the deep sub-cloud dry layer here in NM, isentropic upglide and warm advection will favor some light snow showers overnight into early tomorrow before a bigger shot of mid-level warm advection moves in tomorrow afternoon.

 

[ITUSETOSNOW]

I just have a gut feeling that Atlanta and the Metro, are going to get clobbered this time...

 

[rburrel2]

If you guys can make it 36-48 more hours until we get into short range models specialty, I think a lot of people are going to be happy. Models under estimating the cold already and that FGEN banding holding on longer than expected are going to make several of us happy.

Yea, usually in these scenario's we won't lose the snow profile until the rates drop off from the initial burst. And what falls after that is almost always less than modeled and light.

I'd be shocked if we don't get at least 3-5 inches, worst case scenario, before a potential changeover.

 

[SnowNiner]

Yeah, that will play
View attachment 160985

What was the low track like on the mean? Hopefully it keeps it off shore in the atl rather than taking it up 95.

 

[griteater]

GEFS Members Snow

 

[Webberweather53]

Yeah the GFS not only has problems with handling shallow cold air mass extent, but also usually underestimates the depth of said air mass.

The GFS is actually doing exactly that over me as we speak as this backdoor cold front moves across southern NM.

If we can overcome the deep sub-cloud dry layer here in NM, isentropic upglide and warm advection will favor some light snow showers overnight into early tomorrow before a bigger shot of mid-level warm advection moves in tomorrow afternoon.

View attachment 160992

View attachment 160993

I swear these trends are like clockwork

 

[jackendrickwx]

GEFS Members Snow

I wish the GEFS wouldn’t go so crazy on individual members that just aren’t going to happen all the time. Makes me wary of it

 

[KyloG]

Lot of good model agreement

 

[jrips27]

Weenie run for North Georgia on the GEFS. This is the probability of 12 inches

 

[Webberweather53]

18z GEFS once again slowing down the upper trough over me, which it has been doing for a couple days.

This flattens the wave out more and allows more cold air to get out in front of it. Hence, the slightly colder/suppressed shift on this run

View attachment 160988

48 hour average linear 500mb trend (which has seen increased suppression and infused more cold air into this setup).

 

[NCSNOW]

Best GEFS run yet. Mean low pressure is ever so slightly more progressive, but substantially colder run at 850.

Off that in house model someone just put up. I slowed it dimown and You an me stay clear all Thursday night and clouds roll in an thicken from 430am to just before sunrise Friday. We stay cloudy all day till precip arrives.

 

[UNCSC]

I got a gut feeling that someone in North GA is going to have over 15” when all is said and done. They are in the sweet spot before this thing pivots.

 

[beanskip]

Very possible.. I remember once we got within 60 hrs or so with the Feb 04 storm the CAD got stronger and stronger to push the r/s line well south of 85

Was that the infamous Larry Cosgrove storm?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

18z GFS throws this down before a quick flip to ZR in the upstate.

 

[Oconeexman]

Off that in house model someone just put up. I slowed it diwn abdYou an me stay clear all Thursday night and clouds roll in an thicken from 430am to just before sunrise Friday. We stay cloudy all day till precip arrives.

I posted that scenario earlier or yesterday. It's near perfect for mby...clouds roll in 6-9am after max cooling. Limiting the warm up. Best case scenario when there's no real Cad hammering in. Will help the initial thump and hopefully delay the change over.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Snow_chaser]

I know it was a totally different storm and setup, but the storm we got in Dec 2017 where parts of NW Georgia got a foot, it was the same type of heavy wet snow this will be. Don’t have to have just freezing rain to lose power, that wet snow will weigh down those pine limbs in a heartbeat . Will probably be widespread power outages

 

[NoSnowATL]

I have a hard time believing there will be 4-6" south of Atlanta but I guess anything is possible !

Please for the love of GOD can we keep this thread on topic. I will be banning people next! @packfan98 said so.

 

[rburrel2]

I've clicked around for a bunch of soundings in central NC/upstate SC and everything stays all snow until we lose saturation above 600mb or so around midnight/1am.... As such, we aren't getting snow from that stuff no matter what. It's not even close to reaching the snow growth zone.

Example sounding at 1am below. That's probably not snow anymore, imo.

The front end thump will be sweet though!

 

[ITUSETOSNOW]

I have a hard time believing there will be 4-6" south of Atlanta but I guess anything is possible !

It has certainly happened before, you know when it snows in the Sahara Desert, we go, OK, The same can happen here, You know what I mean,,, This is a different winter, the last 9 years have been s%%%

 

[rburrel2]

I bet that's why the euro is showing freezing rain for central/western NC at the end too.... they lost snow growth saturation. not b/c of a warmnose,(i'm guessing, don't have the soundings).

 

[packfan98]

18z Canadian looks slightly more progressive than 12z. Check it out here if you want. Link

 

[ColdCoreLow]

mama cita..... only one member with the rain/mix line up in to Tennessee this time, good sign. The 12z run had 8 of 20 way up there.

View attachment 160982

Woah... BIG dogs!!

 

[njbarrineau]

I bet that's why the euro is showing freezing rain for central/western NC at the end too.... they lost snow growth saturation. not b/c of a warmnose,(i'm guessing, don't have the soundings).

Could you explain this a bit? Novice here. Could a lack of snow growth saturation have to do with convection down in the gulf?


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