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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

RC, to answer your post awhile back about waiting for storm#1. imho, it is because we are not looking at a more or less open large set feature landscape. Lots of moving parts of which the smaller LP feature is moving through as well in the next couple days. Therefore the 5-7 forecast models are jumping around. Anyway, that's my very unscientific assessment on waiting for the field to clear out when it is currently relatively cluttered beforehand from a confidence standpoint
 
One thing about the Jan 5-6th storm is we knew it would largely miss NC a week (~150hrs) before.
 
CaryWx said:
RC, to answer your post awhile back about waiting for storm#1. imho, it is because we are not looking at a more or less open large set feature landscape. Lots of moving parts of which the smaller LP feature is moving through as well in the next couple days. Therefore the 5-7 forecast models are jumping around. Anyway, that's my very unscientific assessment on waiting for the field to clear out when it is currently relatively cluttered beforehand from a confidence standpoint
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We are in a new pattern storms don’t deviate a whole lot. Similar to hurricane season you will notice hurricane landfalls are within close proximity to one another. Unless another pattern change occurs.
 
jrips27 said:
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Because I was bored: 33.33% have snow or combo of snow and ice over Upstate SC. Of the 10: 1 Mod snow to rain, 1 Mod snow to ice, 1 snow to ice, 2 heavy snow with no mixing, 3 light snow events, 1 ICE storm, and 1 moderate snow with no mixing. Of the 20: 3 Rain only and 17 dry. So 13 precipitation and 17 dry. Of the events with precip, 77% yield frozen precip in Upstate.
 
Stormlover said:
But a few miles deviation makes a world of difference.
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It do but in retrospect cold rain will get cold rain and those who got the lions share will continue to do snow as snow lays for additional.
 
Would love to get @1300m or any other Met input on ens vs ops at this range. I just got done hiking so haven’t looked hard at anything but sounds like the ens look a bit more promising? With higher variance run to run and between the ops, more credence to ens?
 
Overnight GSP discussion
As of 245 AM Saturday: Cold high pressure will slide SE across
the Plains and Midwest and spill into the Southeast Tuesday thru
Thursday. A reinforcing dry cold front will push thru the area
Wednesday night. An associated surge of NWLY 850 mb flow will impact
the Southern Appalachians, which combined with below normal temps
may result in apparent temps falling below zero in the high terrain
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Overall, conditions should
be dry with perhaps a period of cloudiness and a few flurries along
the TN border in the wake of the reinforcing front. Temps will be
generally 5-10 degrees below normal, but 10-20 deg below normal
above 3500 ft. The coldest night looks to be Wednesday night,
with possibly a few single digit lows in the highest elevations,
while highs Thursday will struggle to get to 40 along the I-85
corridor and stay below freezing in much of the mountains.

Things could get interesting starting Friday, as both the 00z
GFS and ECMWF show a southern stream system possibly phasing
enough with an upper trough digging into the Midwest to spread
some moisture atop the forecast area. The air mass in place will
be cold enough that wintry precip types could be a concern. With
that said, most of the ensembles in the LREF keep our area dry
at least thru Friday night. So for now, just some slight chc Pops
creep into the forecast Friday night per the latest NBM.
 
Peachtree City (ATL) discussion
The big story in the wake of the cold front will be the invasion of
more persistent colder temperatures through the coming week.
Temperatures will fall through the day Monday, and Arctic high
pressure will settle over the region through the week. While
temperatures will warm above freezing each day, highs will remain
mainly in the upper 30s to 40s areawide through the remainder of the
week with lows as cold as the teens in north Georgia on the coldest
mornings with widespread 20s otherwise.

We then continue to monitor the potential for a followup system by
late week (Friday to Saturday time frame) and any potential wintry
precipitation impacts given the cold airmass in place. As has been
oft repeated, uncertainty remains high at this juncture, though the
overall synoptic pattern by late week remains broadly supportive of
a possible winter precipitation threat. Further clarity regarding
late week forecast details will be ironed out in the days ahead.
 
jackendrickwx said:
Would love to get @1300m or any other Met input on ens vs ops at this range. I just got done hiking so haven’t looked hard at anything but sounds like the ens look a bit more promising? With higher variance run to run and between the ops, more credence to ens?
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My take is the 12z GEFS is significantly different than the 06z EPS, but the ops generally are closer to matching the EPS thus far. We've already seen where the 12z ECMWF/GFS are going so we'll see how the EPS looks here shortly. While I'd like to see some streamers from the Baja low interact with the northern stream, a full phase is no longer going to produce a wintry solution for us IMO.
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-vort500_z500-6488800.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-vort500_z500-6488800.png
 
Dallas avg about 2” snow a year…less than Atlanta. But it looks primed to see a record snowfall.

IMG_2452.png
 
The EURO was a miller B with a transfer. While we don’t have a big HP sitting over top, there are higher pressures in the northeast with a nice 50/50 and fresh snow pack. History says we get an inland runner with that look but the Low likely doesn’t make it to the spin of the apps before transferring. Really just means CAD areas likely get an ice storm
 
iGRXY said:
The EURO was a miller B with a transfer. While we don’t have a big HP sitting over top, there are higher pressures in the northeast with a nice 50/50 and fresh snow pack. History says we get an inland runner with that look but the Low likely doesn’t make it to the spin of the apps before transferring. Really just means CAD areas likely get an ice storm
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It's definitely an ice storm with that look. That fact that it's even showing ice at this range is a flag that it's legit. The more fully phased and amped this storm is, while screwing our mid level profile, will aid in establishing a high pressure over the Northeast... and that air mass is plenty cold/dry.

Front end thump of snow is still on the table too even with the Euro-like solution. I'd be happy with a front end snow to ice situation.
 
If I had to bet based on current trends and what likely happens, areas along and west of the Mississippi have a good shot at some snow. The CAD regions of Nc and SC get a front end thump before changing to ice while pretty much everybody else rains. This has lost the look of a snow potential outside of far western areas at this point. Still time to trend one way or another but history says for those of us east, this will be at best an ice event for the CAD regions or a cold rain along with everybody else
 
1300m said:
Honestly, the 12z GEFS is on an island. 99% probability it folds. Op GFS/ECMWF/EPS/UKMET all in pretty solid agreement.

Yeah we're on a train and it's all downhill from here. 12z GEFS is on an island compared to op GFS/Euro/EPS. 99% probability it folds IMO.
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Same song, same dance as always. Get cold air, wave then gets buried in SW until cold is gone and here it comes.
 
KyloG said:
Here we go..

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clear how you can see stronger troughing in the southwest trigger stronger ridging downstream in the Caribbean. Better tilt induces a strong precip depiction. At the very least this is a pretty clear cut manifestation of what they teach in textbooks.

the thing is, what this run shows will not be what transpires. This is shifting and will continue to shift
 
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