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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
We do have some high pressure feed here with near perfect placement. Cant imagine this would be resolved quickly if this were the general setup View attachment 159445
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That’s a weak high, but it’s sitting over an area that should have pretty good snow pack, so you could expect to have a deeper CAD with that set up. Of course this will probably look different in 6 hours. It’s almost like these are throwing darts to see which one sticks
 
It eventually changes to ran. Most likely if that scenario happens you’re looking at a front end thump of snow then a switch to ZR for the entire event. GFS is probably the worst global of all of them when handling low level cold air. If that’s what you’re rooting for. The problem is even when things look better early on something screws it up around day 4-5. The S/W was better but our confluence was moving out faster this run even with it being better early on.
 
Chazwin said:
That’s a weak high, but it’s sitting over an area that should have pretty good snow pack, so you could expect to have a deeper CAD with that set up. Of course this will probably look different in 6 hours. It’s almost like these are throwing darts to see which one sticks
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A common theme in all of them is not cold enough which is all that really matters
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
We do have some high pressure feed here with near perfect placement. Cant imagine this would be resolved quickly if this were the general setup View attachment 159445
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Yeah that verbatim would’ve been a similar play out of Jan 2022 just to a more confined area. CAD areas likely get a nice front end thump that switches over and holds on for the duration
 
CMC hammers TX with snow...that looks like the place to be...then along the OH Valley into the NE.

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JP152 said:
Lol, IAD could get 8 or so with this first storm and another 10 or so from the second.
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Pretty much everyone in the southeast, mid atlantic and northeast has been well below normal for snow past few years. Hopefully some of these area get hit.
 
KyloG said:
Pretty much everyone in the southeast, mid atlantic and northeast has been well below normal for snow past few years. Hopefully some of these area get hit.
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You got it. The snow drought in the East has lasted too damn long. Lets get everyone in on the party.
 
1300m said:
That initial folding western ridge is what moves east. From an H5 perspective, it's beginning to be hard to see a way out of this without some totally unforeseen northern stream energy and/or a perfect timing situation. We find new ways to lose every winter.
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Really it just boils down to which model you trust to handle the H5 pattern the best at this lead time. Personally, even if this thing was a monster snow storm this run I don’t think the GFS has a clue what’s going on. The changes from 6z across the board were massive again.
 
There just seems to be too small of a needle for some of us to thread here. I like the idea of big storm potential, but when you have to get all of the pieces together to phase just enough at the right time and location with enough cold air, it’s a lot to ask.
 
CMC

Mid to Southern Miss is frozen in solid sheet of ICE and then in East Al and West GA you got a hit of freezing rain and then a nice dump of snow its not too bad looking honestly for board.... other then Mississippi hope you got ice picks!!!
 
Trend past few runs for the Canadian...most globals agree om something for next Fri-Sun...we need some luck.

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Canadian has issues. We’ve got the precip but we’re losing the most important thing in response to thatView attachment 159463
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What exactly has to happen to get back to a major winter storm with plenty of cold? Or is the cold just out of the question now for most? I wanna go back to seeing the entire state of sc in blue like days ago. That made me feel good.
 
packfan98 said:
There just seems to be too small of a needle for some of us to thread here. I like the idea of big storm potential, but when you have to get all of the pieces together to phase just enough at the right time and location with enough cold air, it’s a lot to ask.
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If I’m in Texas, west Louisiana, and west Arkansas I feel some what confident. CAD areas of NC/SC would be next but even then right now it’s only probably 20% confidence. Everywhere else is a wait and see at this point.
 
One nugget I have for my immediate area is every run, no matter what mode, it produces frozen. Only ones that dont occasionally are dry runs.

Dry runs have become more scarce. I, like 1300m want the big dog. But in order to do that,We gotta get a wound up full phaser. That will send mixing no doubt, cause its a day latter, confluence will get scrambled out, becoming obvious if thats the play that gets called.
The biggest potential we have here is a good front thump, change over to sleet, ice. Traditional storm like we use to get all the time as they rocket up the coast. That GFS run we just had would never flip to cold rain Cad areas. Frzng rain, yes no doubt.
 
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