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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

At this point I'm just rooting for having as cold of a rain as possible here IMBY. Let's have a classic 'winter' storm we excel at in this part of the world. Those good, cozy cold rains, with temps just a few degrees above freezing I remember from my younger years growing up in the 90s and early 2000s are the best. Hopefully the cold airmass will be stubborn and slow to leave, and the low will track far enough south to keep that yucky warm sector far out into the Gulf. I need what the ICON and CMC are dishing up, not what the Euro shows!
 
Honestly at 500mb, the euro ai is a good middle ground blend of all the 12z model outputs. Could definitely be where we’re heading

Also, it has easily been the most consistent model over the last 3-4 days when compared to the other globals. They’ve all jumped around like crazy
 
rburrel2 said:
Honestly at 500mb, the euro ai is a good middle ground blend of all the 12z model outputs. Could definitely be where we’re heading

Also, it has easily been the most consistent model over the last 3-4 days when compared to the other globals. They’ve all jumped around like crazy
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How did the AI fair in regards to tomorrow’s storm?….albeit the storm hasn’t happened…but from an overall consistency perspective in relation to other models final consensus.
 
KyloG said:
Trend is towards a bigger phase…we on the edge of a super amp GFS run

View attachment 159566
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My two cents. More phasing isn't so bad as long as it's the cut off portion speeding up to catch the northern trough and not the other way around. The euro is slowing down the northern part which is a killer for us.

It's probably why that AI wasn't warmer than the 06z run, (in fact it was colder).
 
iGRXY said:
View attachment 159569 Liking this better so fa
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Oh yea... TPV extension is further west back in to the great lakes... love to see it. Doubt this run winds up amped/warm.

Actually especially good to see this feature stronger on the icon, b/c it was already the most aggressive with it... glad it didn't back down.
 
ecmwf-aifs-all-namer-t850-1735992000-1736467200-1736467200-20.gif

Disgusted Steve Carell GIF
 
1300m said:
Not sure how you can look at all the trends of today (especially the ensembles) and not see where this is likely going.
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We definitely need to thread a needle. But, if anything I hope this blows up and plasters a lot of locations NW of us. Maybe helps down the road.
 
ICON at hr120 has the TPV extension further West, and the northern trough and cutoff phasing further East. Win/win

This run was gonna be a beaut. Cold and further East with the precip field compared to 12z since the trough had shifted East a good bit.

Only concern is it may have been suppressed. (for which I am not concerned about), lol.
 
Ethan80963 said:
The last two frames looked the same ish. Hopefully they we can stop the trends of the cold retreating and come back some. Or maybe I’m being delusional 😂😂😂 guess we’ll find out
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It's not going to be enough to stop the trend if we keep pumping up the height field out ahead of it. We needed more cold injection, not less. We all got opinions, I'm just offering mine haha. Would love to be wrong.
 
KyloG said:
We definitely need to thread a needle. But, if anything I hope this blows up and plasters a lot of locations NW of us. Maybe helps down the road.
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Yeah I know this is a super unpopular opinion, but I'd rather see areas to our north get a monster than us to get a piddly little event out of this pattern. This pattern deserves to produce a big dog.
 
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