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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

12z Ukmet and JMA miss the cut off and are weak/cold events. 12z ICON/CMC have a better 50/50 and are cold but suppressed.

The 12z GFS/Euro are on the far envelope of phasing/amperage. There's reason to believe we will trend to something in the middle... at least some reasonable hope. I'd hold off on the cliff jumping for now.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
That’s a good trend for NC too. If it’s accumulating in Dallas, it will snow in NC.
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If you go back an watch the panels in motion off GEFS someone posted, you see the exact same footprint on like 8 of them. And they dish out way more white precip. Hopefully someone can post eps panels in motion. Thats growing consensus imo from 12z. A sw to ne stripe of snow, that will leave mby sweating it out till go time.
 
Not sure if anyone else brought this up- and if its even feasible at all, but I just most recently noticed this feature closing off on the GFS. Euro showed something more pronounced as well. I hadn't noticed this on previous runs. Again, wandering out loud here, but could there be a solution unfolding that puts a cold core low out there & brings something more substantial thank backside flakes? Would it need to tilt a little bit more negatively and dig for that to happen?1736017469762.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The apparently fickle TX power grid would certainly be tested if this happened.

I’ll take my 2” mean and walk away from the black jack table

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Yeah, even though this storm will likely just be a cold rain for my area, at least there will be a nice snowpack just to my north that ensuing troughs will push less moderated cold air over and into southern Louisiana. Got to count your blessings during these times of great disappointment!
 
Every 12 hours the modeling has looked a bit different so I'm definitely not punting even with this suite. We need to 100% clear this first system and get the energy closer in place before consistency sets in. We can see southward shifts again or even trend more towards a different look that results better again. This was still a bad hit but we're not near the end yet.
 
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12z eps for Birmingham with more snow members than not. I refuse to throw in the towel with ensemble support like this. I know trends are not our friends but there is more than enough time for it to swing back in our favor. Unfortunately haven’t been able to track anything this worth in awhile.
 
Parker said:
View attachment 159526
12z eps for Birmingham with more snow members than not. I refuse to throw in the towel with ensemble support like this. I know trends are not our friends but there is more than enough time for it to swing back in our favor. Unfortunately haven’t been able to track anything this worth in awhile.
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I know you get tired of me asking but would you please post muscle shoals?
 
Parker said:
View attachment 159526
12z eps for Birmingham with more snow members than not. I refuse to throw in the towel with ensemble support like this. I know trends are not our friends but there is more than enough time for it to swing back in our favor. Unfortunately haven’t been able to track anything this worth in awhile.
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I disagree. There is not enough time as the upper level bowling ball out west is well within the 120 hour mark. This one is cooked. That feature is killing all snow chances in Birmingham to Atlanta to Raleigh. I can't believe all of the posters were pulling for this feature to be present and strong for their "blockbuster" snow storm. In this pattern, you want over-running, weak systems. Best chance to see snow. Now everyone gets a cold rain, maybe, could be a mild rain with highs in the upper 50's by the time it's done cooking.
 
weatherfide said:
I disagree. There is not enough time as the upper level bowling ball out west is well within the 120 hour mark. This one is cooked. That feature is killing all snow chances in Birmingham to Atlanta to Raleigh. I can't believe all of the posters were pulling for this feature to be present and strong for their "blockbuster" snow storm. In this pattern, you want over-running, weak systems. Best chance to see snow. Now everyone gets a cold rain, maybe, could be a mild rain with highs in the upper 50's by the time it's done cooking.
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Well, if it ends up in the 70's with severe weather then 10 days later it will snow


In DC.
 
weatherfide said:
I disagree. There is not enough time as the upper level bowling ball out west is well within the 120 hour mark. This one is cooked. That feature is killing all snow chances in Birmingham to Atlanta to Raleigh. I can't believe all of the posters were pulling for this feature to be present and strong for their "blockbuster" snow storm. In this pattern, you want over-running, weak systems. Best chance to see snow. Now everyone gets a cold rain, maybe, could be a mild rain with highs in the upper 50's by the time it's done cooking.
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Awful confident there. I can understand the feelings based on the past few years, but in no way do we have anything near agreement on this storm.
 
weatherfide said:
I disagree. There is not enough time as the upper level bowling ball out west is well within the 120 hour mark. This one is cooked. That feature is killing all snow chances in Birmingham to Atlanta to Raleigh. I can't believe all of the posters were pulling for this feature to be present and strong for their "blockbuster" snow storm. In this pattern, you want over-running, weak systems. Best chance to see snow. Now everyone gets a cold rain, maybe, could be a mild rain with highs in the upper 50's by the time it's done cooking.
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We have not seen the final solution. It is still too early to say what the outcome will be. 12Z runs on Monday will be the cut-off timeframe I am looking for to get some sense of where the storm will be tracking. The "bowling ball" as you referred to, can't make up its' mind on whether it will phase or not. So, no..... this one is not "cooked" yet.
 
After this storm comes through for the upper south, Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley, the models will have that data ingested with snow cover and all that from those areas. Hopefully that will make a difference with the storm of interest. It has before. Still a lot to work out
 
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