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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

1300m said:
Didn't see anyone post this, but the 12z Navgem came back northwest a little and gets light precipitation into southeastern NC.

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_23.png
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Hope that's the start of a continuing trend westward.
 
Brett said:
If it can give SE VA some snow I'll be happy lol
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Haha! Yeah, I know what you mean Brett. Not sure this is the one, but possibly the period Eric was referring to around Jan. 7th or so. That looks like it may hold a better possibility overall for the region.
 
GaWx said:
18Z GFS: another close miss to the se coast but the key word to me is close rather than miss. We're still not seeing as clearcut trend away from the close miss.
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Did look better in terms of the southern s/w and northern energy was faster...fwiw right now.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
18Z GFS: another close miss to the se coast but the key word to me is close rather than miss. We're still not seeing as clearcut trend away from the close miss.
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It really seems that most models keep slowing the wave down. That run wasn’t as positive tilt as 12z. Keep that trend going and it will be close
 
The key to me is to assess whether or not there is a reasonable possibility for model consensus to miss by 150-200 miles to the SE at 5 days out. I'd think it would be. That's why we watch and track these things and is what a lot of these threads are all about. How often is it set in stone 5 days out?
 
The last couple of sentences from the NWS GSP discussion summary pretty much sums up out situation.
"What we are left with might be called by some as a waste of a perfectly
good cold air mass with no potential for winter weather. Others
are probably happy about that. All of us will have to continue
dealing with temps running at least 10-15 degrees below normal."
 
The only reason I’m optomistic is this is still over a 100 hours out. Wobbles can and will happen. Look at the last threat for example, on Sunday models still showed a hit. Now it’s way offshore
 
If this is banter or does not add to the discussion, please move to a more appropriate thread (Jarring January may be the place for this and I apologize if it should go there). With that said, I think it has a bit of relevance here in regards to today's discussion. So risking the warning point, here goes :):

I did a quick and dirty recap of the winters in my location since I moved here in June 2010. Today, we have talked extensively about a "window of prime opportunity" closing with regards to winter weather mischief, given how cold it is now and how much cold is pouring into the Southeast the next week or so.

For MBY, I have experienced 13 significant (greater than a trace of snow or measurable ZR/IP) winter weather precipitation events since Dec. 1, 2010. A few nuggets across 7 1/3 winters (defining winter as December-January-February):

December events: 2
January events: 5
February events: 6

Amount of snow/ZR/IP in December: 12 inches (8 inches this December!)
Amount of snow/ZR/IP in January: 16.1 inches
Amount of snow/ZR/IP in February: 12.4 inches

Several of the historical events cited earlier today highlighting systems that started with shortwaves entering Southern California/Baja were storms that impacted me since December 2010, thereby allowing for tapping into the Southern Jet and the moisture in the Gulf of Mexico. Yes, it would be incredible to get a storm given how cold it is going to be the next week or so.

But I tend to side on the fence where we need that balancing act to tap into the fuel source we need to fire up winter precip in this part of the world. Is it a close call? Always! Do we have to thread the needle? Always! That's winter in the Southeast. No breaking news there.

Let's see if the pattern relaxes enough to allow for the traditional storm paths to do what they do. Personally, I'm rooting for winter precip on the SE Georgia coast and for some of our more coastal posters (I'm biased; I lived on St. Simons Island for six years and never came close to a flake or a pinger).

Winter just started. Regardless of any blowtorches that may be coming, we still have two months to go. And Mother Nature likely is going to provide us something to salivate in the 50 or so days that follow Jan. 10.

--30--
 
I just looked over the 18z GFS and man, oh man, was it so close for a big dog. The storm is still there, perhaps will see a north and west trend like what seems to be the case sometimes.
 
bud006 said:
If this is banter or does not add to the discussion, please move to a more appropriate thread (Jarring January may be the place for this and I apologize if it should go there). With that said, I think it has a bit of relevance here in regards to today's discussion. So risking the warning point, here goes :):

I did a quick and dirty recap of the winters in my location since I moved here in June 2010. Today, we have talked extensively about a "window of prime opportunity" closing with regards to winter weather mischief, given how cold it is now and how much cold is pouring into the Southeast the next week or so.

For MBY, I have experienced 13 significant (greater than a trace of snow or measurable ZR/IP) winter weather precipitation events since Dec. 1, 2010. A few nuggets across 7 1/3 winters (defining winter as December-January-February):

December events: 2
January events: 5
February events: 6

Amount of snow/ZR/IP in December: 12 inches (8 inches this December!)
Amount of snow/ZR/IP in January: 16.1 inches
Amount of snow/ZR/IP in February: 12.4 inches

Several of the historical events cited earlier today highlighting systems that started with shortwaves entering Southern California/Baja were storms that impacted me since December 2010, thereby allowing for tapping into the Southern Jet and the moisture in the Gulf of Mexico. Yes, it would be incredible to get a storm given how cold it is going to be the next week or so.

But I tend to side on the fence where we need that balancing act to tap into the fuel source we need to fire up winter precip in this part of the world. Is it a close call? Always! Do we have to thread the needle? Always! That's winter in the Southeast. No breaking news there.

Let's see if the pattern relaxes enough to allow for the traditional storm paths to do what they do. Personally, I'm rooting for winter precip on the SE Georgia coast and for some of our more coastal posters (I'm biased; I lived on St. Simons Island for six years and never came close to a flake or a pinger).

Winter just started. Regardless of any blowtorches that may be coming, we still have two months to go. And Mother Nature likely is going to provide us something to salivate in the 50 or so days that follow Jan. 10.

--30--
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Not a Mod, but IMHO - warning points be damned ... a post like this needs to be framed ... ;)
 
bud006 said:
If this is banter or does not add to the discussion, please move to a more appropriate thread (Jarring January may be the place for this and I apologize if it should go there). With that said, I think it has a bit of relevance here in regards to today's discussion. So risking the warning point, here goes :):

I did a quick and dirty recap of the winters in my location since I moved here in June 2010. Today, we have talked extensively about a "window of prime opportunity" closing with regards to winter weather mischief, given how cold it is now and how much cold is pouring into the Southeast the next week or so.

For MBY, I have experienced 13 significant (greater than a trace of snow or measurable ZR/IP) winter weather precipitation events since Dec. 1, 2010. A few nuggets across 7 1/3 winters (defining winter as December-January-February):

December events: 2
January events: 5
February events: 6

Amount of snow/ZR/IP in December: 12 inches (8 inches this December!)
Amount of snow/ZR/IP in January: 16.1 inches
Amount of snow/ZR/IP in February: 12.4 inches

Several of the historical events cited earlier today highlighting systems that started with shortwaves entering Southern California/Baja were storms that impacted me since December 2010, thereby allowing for tapping into the Southern Jet and the moisture in the Gulf of Mexico. Yes, it would be incredible to get a storm given how cold it is going to be the next week or so.

But I tend to side on the fence where we need that balancing act to tap into the fuel source we need to fire up winter precip in this part of the world. Is it a close call? Always! Do we have to thread the needle? Always! That's winter in the Southeast. No breaking news there.

Let's see if the pattern relaxes enough to allow for the traditional storm paths to do what they do. Personally, I'm rooting for winter precip on the SE Georgia coast and for some of our more coastal posters (I'm biased; I lived on St. Simons Island for six years and never came close to a flake or a pinger).

Winter just started. Regardless of any blowtorches that may be coming, we still have two months to go. And Mother Nature likely is going to provide us something to salivate in the 50 or so days that follow Jan. 10.

--30--
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Nah, you are fine posting it here. Good data of weather around here! Good thing you arrived just before the best winter I have lived here so far. If we get another big storm this year somehow it will make this one better than that one.
 
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