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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

tonysc said:
Oh rub it in why don't you. Just kidding, glad you cashed in on that one, after all the Atlanta area is so often left out in the cold.
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The was I see it here is that if you live in the northern part of the county, you have far better chances of seeing accumulating snow than the southern end. I think it is partially elevation and location, but it seems we are the dividing line for non mountain snow quite a few times unless its a statewide storm or a south state storm. In the just over a decade time I have lived here, only 2 or 3, at most 4 of the winters has there not been any accumulating snow. Every other year I have seen some form of snow. Of those years, many give nothing to Atlanta, but produce here.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The was I see it here is that if you live in the northern part of the county, you have far better chances of seeing accumulating snow than the southern end. I think it is partially elevation and location, but it seems we are the dividing line for non mountain snow quite a few times unless its a statewide storm or a south state storm. In the just over a decade time I have lived here, only 2 or 3, at most 4 of the winters has there not been any accumulating snow. Every other year I have seen some form of snow. Of those years, many give nothing to Atlanta, but produce here.
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That's why I've tried to say that you can't exactly consider Atlanta North Georgia because the actual North Georgia climate is a different animal. Atlanta is in just a slightly better position than most of central GA itself when it comes to snow.
 
accu35 said:
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png
CMC
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Haven't had a chance to see temp profiles, but that's what was of concern to me, not being cold enough. Precipitation looks great though coming from the West. Eric is awesome with all of the analysis and examples he's provided, I'm thankful for his insight. Sure hope it comes to fruition as he said it possibly could.
 
Webber, I know that you focus mainly on historical North Carolina systems. However, I would love to see maps depicting the evolution of the 2/26/1914 storm that was considered by many in my area to be the "big dog" system before 1973. I seem to think that I've read that winter was an El Nino, but I can't concisely confirm that fact. I'm assuming that North Carolina ultimately got some snow from this same system, but again I've only researched the impacts that it had on Georgia.
 
I wonder if the 12Z GEFS
CentralGAColdFront said:
Webber, I know that you focus mainly on historical North Carolina systems. However, I would love to see maps depicting the evolution of the 2/26/1914 storm that was considered by many in my area to be the "big dog" system before 1973. I seem to think that I've read that winter was an El Nino, but I can't concisely confirm that fact. I'm assuming that North Carolina ultimately got some snow from this same system, but again I've only researched the impacts that it had on Georgia.
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That was a weak El Nino. Hopefully Webber will post but the track of the low was the typical track for us to get something wintry down into the Gulf that then crossed central FL.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
That's why I've tried to say that you can't exactly consider Atlanta North Georgia because the actual North Georgia climate is a different animal. Atlanta is in just a slightly better position than most of central GA itself when it comes to snow.
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I would argue that an area like Atlanta/Henry County has a far distinct climate that what one would experience if they resided in Macon. To most people that live in South Georgia, Atlanta is absolutely considered to be North Georgia. However, I do concede that it's different than what one would experience if they lived in NE or NW Georgia. I would consider the "Macon climate" to be from Monroe County south to around Fitzgerald and anything west of Vidalia. Whenever you get around Claxton, Statesboro, Pembroke, etc., the coastal influence is distinct enough to differentiate these areas from place of a similar latitude such as Americus.
 
Yep, could be at least closer call on 12Z Euro vs 0Z Euro. More moisture pooling W GOM vs 0Z Euro. Trough fruther west. Look out. MAYBE
 
Looking at more maps tells me to not call this threat off just yet regardless of how this run ends. But will run end with a SE storm? We'll see.
 
This run better than 0Z Euro and sig better than 12Z GFS. Game still on for at least near coastal areas. Precip actually came back to GA coast and within 30 miles of carolinas This is way too close a call to call off just yet imo.
 
GaWx said:
This run better than 0Z Euro and sig better than 12Z GFS. Game still on for at least near coastal areas. Precip actually came back to GA coast and within 30 miles of carolinas This is way too close a call to call off just yet imo.
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I agree
 
I'll leave the thread open till 00z/tomorrow afternoon I guess... but I'm out. Not gonna work.
 
Shawn said:
I'll leave the thread open till 00z/tomorrow afternoon I guess... but I'm out. Not gonna work.
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you know you aren't out. When you got a passion for the weather, you always come back even with the slightest positive changes lol
 
This 12Z Euro run actually gave some very light snow to far SE GA from west of Valdosta to SAV between 6Z and 12Z on 1/3 (Tue night)! This is certainly not a done deal just yet when a very respected model actually has snow on it!
 
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