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Misc Cold Season Complaining

It’s so comforting to see the models dumping the cold out west now. Really feels like a normal Christmas again.
 
I've seen this SOOOO many times. This is 90% likely to happen. It will take forever to bleed east and when it does, it will just be normal temps. We will sit in the 60's day and night until it finally moves through. Alabama gets copious amounts of rain but we get barely any.

It's almost always this way now.
SD said:
Its perfect View attachment 156467
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Brick has a lesson for us. Remember, we must first lose the cold so we can get it back come verification time.
 
When GEFS differs from EPS in a positive way, it always feels like people break their backs to defend it.

When EPS differs from GEFS in a positive way, it always feels like people find a way to trash it and for some reason, trust the GEFS.
 
weatherfide said:
I've seen this SOOOO many times. This is 90% likely to happen. It will take forever to bleed east and when it does, it will just be normal temps. We will sit in the 60's day and night until it finally moves through. Alabama gets copious amounts of rain but we get barely any.

It's almost always this way now.
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This is certainly a possibility (and I'm still a bit skeptical), but I don't see that's it's anywhere time to jump ship. Even the GEFS looks pretty good and not very far off than the much colder EPS. All the ensembles still look pretty good. First of January for being so far out looks great to me.

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BullCityWx said:
When GEFS differs from EPS in a positive way, it always feels like people break their backs to defend it.

When EPS differs from GEFS in a positive way, it always feels like people find a way to trash it and for some reason, trust the GEFS.
Click to expand...
I think it's mostly about which model starts showing warmth and expecting that one to eventually turn out true, whether it's the GFS, EPS, CFS, you name it. Anyway, Weatherfide doing work this morning 😅
 
Rain Cold said:
I think it's mostly about which model starts showing warmth and expecting that one to eventually turn out true, whether it's the GFS, EPS, CFS, you name it. Anyway, Weatherfide doing work this morning 😅
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Exactly this. The warmer solutions usually turn out to be closer to reality. It makes, sense, though. The southeast will tend to move toward climatology and it's difficult to sustain any real significant deviation.
 
I want to see the ensembles move in pretty close sequence with each other for upper level feature placement. I'm seeing the GEFS move toward a warmer SE which would be closer to "normal". That one gets higher weight than the others. If the GEFS was mimicking the EPS or GEPS in the upper level placement, I would not weight it as heavily. Same for the EPS if it was showing the warmer solution.
 
weatherfide said:
Exactly this. The warmer solutions usually turn out to be closer to reality. It makes, sense, though. The southeast will tend to move toward climatology and it's difficult to sustain any real significant deviation.
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I suppose. I guess folks like me that grew up in the 70’s and 80’s fail to realize that particular period might have been colder and snowier than average, but we look at it as if it was our base state and the way things should be. We considered it normal when in fact maybe it wasn’t. It was just an above average snowfall time period.
 
weatherfide said:
Exactly this. The warmer solutions usually turn out to be closer to reality. It makes, sense, though. The southeast will tend to move toward climatology and it's difficult to sustain any real significant deviation.
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Getting warmer generally in the SE and less cold and snow sucks for us. However this month has helped me to appreciate there's still hope. This December has been cool/cold IMBY and I thought that was out the window considering the last several years. Yes it can still snow and be cold in the winter, though perhaps more of a rare occurrence.

I never expect cold in December....it got cold in December.
I never expect snow from a clipper....I got snow from a clipper....in December.

This month has shown me we're not too far gone.
 
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