Brent
Member
Hey I'm just making a point I mean the news makes a big deal about it... It probably doesn't even mean anything
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Presidential Election 2024
- Thread starter Shawn
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Hey I'm just making a point I mean the news makes a big deal about it... It probably doesn't even mean anything
Chattownsnow
Member
I’ll also add that this year they had 4 republican voters and 2 undeclared
Does this qualify as a melt?
Chattownsnow
Member
Chattownsnow
Member
Not sure what that means
Pretty much a whole bunch of emotional nonsense. Kamala definitely can win the election, but the trend is clear, much less democrat early votes vs same or more GOP early votes.
They will show much stronger than Democrats in a few hours.
Chattownsnow
Member
I mean that’s not the consensus and interpretation I’m seeing from professional polling analysts, who do this for their jobs. It’s true that over-all republicans are showing up more than they did in the past, however are not showing up in numbers early that was hoped for given the investment in getting them to show up. We will know soon enough but I’m feeling very comfortable in a Kamala win but suprises do happen
Chattownsnow
Member
I doubt it but we will see. Women are showing up a lot stronger than in the past and the mid terms showed this as well and those results were pretty bad for Trump backed candidates. Good luck
Chattownsnow
Member
Well I guess I could also say you are basing this on emotional nonsense by saying the trend is clear because I’m not seeing that at all in the data I’m seeing
Chattownsnow
Member
Yes democrats aren’t showing up early as much and republicans are showing up more early, but other data points to trouble for Trump that makes up for this one point. Especially when you look at how much money and time was spent in getting republicans to vote early, they aren’t as much as was expected given this investment
Same thing happened last election cycle. Trump
was a heavy favorite on Election Day and his odds increased two-fold into the evening. When we woke up the next morning the fix was in and the odds had done a 180. There is something out there that even the best Vegas algorithms can’t sniff out.
was a heavy favorite on Election Day and his odds increased two-fold into the evening. When we woke up the next morning the fix was in and the odds had done a 180. There is something out there that even the best Vegas algorithms can’t sniff out.
Georgia said we should have an idea by 8pm. Said they will be much faster this time around.
I remember back to the water pipe burst excuse when Trump was leading and then magically over night whoopsie.
If Trump manages to flip NH and sweeps the Sun Belt, he wins (even if Harris wins PA/WI/MI)...
Maybe not a melt, but definitely high on hopium.
Their expectation hinges on a much higher election day turnout for Democrata than usual...
I mean that’s not the consensus and interpretation I’m seeing from professional polling analysts, who do this for their jobs. It’s true that over-all republicans are showing up more than they did in the past, however are not showing up in numbers early that was hoped for given the investment in getting them to show up. We will know soon enough but I’m feeling very comfortable in a Kamala win but suprises do happen
All the MSN articles are are saying the same thing. I’m glad you have the feels, but these sources would definitely not be saying this if the data wasn’t obvious. Could not mean much in the end, but nothing I see is bad for the GOP at this point.
3 takeaways from pre-election voting | CNN Politics
Here are three big takeaways from what we know about those who decided to vote ahead of Election Day.
amp.cnn.com
Former Obama campaign manager: Early voting numbers ‘a little scary’ for Harris
Jim Messina, former President Obama’s 2012 campaign manager, said Sunday that early voting numbers are a “little scary” for Vice President Harris’s campaign. Messina noted in an interview on MSNBC’…
thehill.com
Republicans take historic lead in early voting
Members of Trump’s party outvote Democrats in crucial battlegrounds of Nevada and North Carolina heading into election day
www.telegraph.co.uk
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Once again this doesn’t mean much. Trump absolutely did try to get more GOP to vote early and the results are so/so. However that was because they were expecting democrats to blow the early vote up again and needed everything to be close to even on Election Day. The democrat didn’t blow up the early vote and based on the numbers things are even or in the GOP’s favor in several key states. Republicans are normally Election Day turn out monsters, Democrats on the other hand are usually not and that has cost them in the past.
Democrats may absolutely swarm the polls today and get the win for Harris, but right now early voting is much more even at least by stats which is crazy.
No disrespect to D. Van Dyke, but does the average person under the age of 45 even know who he is?
I mean, he got a bit popular with Bernie supporters, but that was it...
LickWx
Member
My final swing state prediction
NC: +2 R
GA: +2 R
AZ: +1 R
PA: +/- .5 R/D… imma lean it goes trump but i think this the range I give it… either barely D or barely R
MI: +/- .5 … same as above but maybe slightly Trump
Wi: Same as above
Very close , I don’t see a landslide of any kind or at least signs of it , none of the polling shows it … it’s all super close. If there is one it won’t really hinted at in the polling so would be another failure of it.
NC: +2 R
GA: +2 R
AZ: +1 R
PA: +/- .5 R/D… imma lean it goes trump but i think this the range I give it… either barely D or barely R
MI: +/- .5 … same as above but maybe slightly Trump
Wi: Same as above
Very close , I don’t see a landslide of any kind or at least signs of it , none of the polling shows it … it’s all super close. If there is one it won’t really hinted at in the polling so would be another failure of it.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Gonna be a bit more direct than I was yesterday…
While an electoral college blowout might occur, I think it’s more likely the winner has 270-287 electoral college votes, and it’s not what’s needed to cool the political bickering, it’ll make it worse (in fact, Harris 270-268 would be a perfect way to put a bow on 2020 because it’d apparently mean the way the census was conducted then costed R’s a presidency).
Only thing in which I think drums up what was seen out of 2016 again is a popular vote loss by democrats here. Otherwise, like I said, the establishment bench is in MUCH better shape than it was nearly a decade ago. You’d probably see Josh Shapiro run in 2028 (or 2032) and he’d have a very good chance.
Edit as I meant to say this and forgot: I actually don’t think Michigan is on the board here. Detroit had terrible turnout in 2016 and so far it hasn’t been here, and folks saying it has been are lying to you.
While an electoral college blowout might occur, I think it’s more likely the winner has 270-287 electoral college votes, and it’s not what’s needed to cool the political bickering, it’ll make it worse (in fact, Harris 270-268 would be a perfect way to put a bow on 2020 because it’d apparently mean the way the census was conducted then costed R’s a presidency).
Only thing in which I think drums up what was seen out of 2016 again is a popular vote loss by democrats here. Otherwise, like I said, the establishment bench is in MUCH better shape than it was nearly a decade ago. You’d probably see Josh Shapiro run in 2028 (or 2032) and he’d have a very good chance.
Edit as I meant to say this and forgot: I actually don’t think Michigan is on the board here. Detroit had terrible turnout in 2016 and so far it hasn’t been here, and folks saying it has been are lying to you.
WXinCanton
Member
This Day In History - Election Day
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I wondering they threw Kamala in to get rid of her too at this point if the early data does favor Trump. At least if Trump wins it'll be the last 4 he can serve so those mad about his constant presence will be at ease in 2028. Just please as a nation let's never go this clownish for candidates again.
I have also thought that as well. Burn Kamala on a probable lame duck presidency with Trump and the probable economic problems.
Last 4? I've heard he's a dictator that will rule forever
Curious for anyone that has voted today, any issues at your location? Nearly 40 minute delay at our site due to issues logging into the system and then the counting machine didn't work at first. I'm not claiming "rigged" ok, but in 2024 when this stuff happens, it just doesn't instill confidence in the process
Depends. Is your area predominantly R, D, I?
Mahomeless
Member
A delusional melt at that!!
Mahomeless
Member
You’ve yet to make a point….you just regurgitate what you’ve read or heard….pointless
Oh, y'all haven't seen anything yet...
Chattownsnow
Member
That’s literally how you get information. Did you get yours from Devine inspiration while you sleep or something? Please explain another way to get information
. The difference is I get information from both sides and actually consider them.
Mahomeless
Member
Are you talking about the human rights of the babies y’all abort, committing mass genocide on the innocent…I’ll waitYes because the tens of millions of undocumented immigrants who came here largely for the same reasons the millions of immigrants in the immigration wave of the 1880s-1920s came here, ergo, to have a better life are enemies of our country. Since you don't want to answer my question, I'll answer it myself. Here's an article recalling the last time a mass deportation was attempted in the U.S
The Largest Mass Deportation in American History | HISTORY
As many as 1.3 million people may have been swept up in the Eisenhower‑era campaign.www.history.com
Excuse me for caring about human rights and not wanting our country to be accused of genocide by the international community
Happy landslide day!
Chattownsnow
Member
Q: What specific legislation will you commit to to make child care affordable?
Trump: Well, I would do that and we're sitting down, you know, I was, somebody, we had Marco Rubio and my daughter, Ivanka... But I think when you talk about the kind of numbers that I'm talking about that because the child care is, child care couldn't, you know, there's something you have to have it in this country, you have to have it... I want to stay with child care... So we'll take care of it. Thank you
I’ve posted this now 3 times. I’ll give ANYONE a chance to explain this. Please. And then quote me ANYTHING Kamala says and I’ll explain that. You cannot explain this gibberish. It’s almost impossible to even read let alone understand. THIS IS YOUR GUY!?!
LickWx
Member
Mass genocide on the innocent? So what this country is doing in Palestine? I need some consistency from you because I refuse to believe you have any humanity in you or care for human life.
Mahomeless
Member
Of course you have to get information from sources…but I will repeat myself….YOU have yet to make a point of your own. Repeating what you’ve been told or heard is not making a point, it’s being a sheep. Baaaahhhhh B - Trump 24’!That’s literally how you get information. Did you get yours from Devine inspiration while you sleep or something? Please explain another way to get information
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