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Presidential Election 2024

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It would be the ultimate irony if the Iowa rep caucus voters gave us Trump who loses in a landslide. I still think Trump has a chance but we could have had DeSantis who has delivered on every conservative issue and is fighting like hell to stop Amendments 3 and 4 in FLA as we speak. If Trump does lose what happens next? Who does the party turn to? A Trump grifter like Vivek or a conservative like DeSantis?
 
lexxnchloe said:
It would be the ultimate irony if the Iowa rep caucus voters gave us Trump who loses in a landslide. I still think Trump has a chance but we could have had DeSantis who has delivered on every conservative issue and is fighting like hell to stop Amendments 3 and 4 in FLA as we speak. If Trump does lose what happens next? Who does the party turn to? A Trump grifter like Vivek or a conservative like DeSantis?
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Maybe Nikki Haley. It may not matter who they turn to though if Harris wins and the Democrats get both houses of Congress. If that happens it may be a long time, if ever, for the Republicans to get back in the White House. It would depend on if they can get rid of the filibuster if they do get the White House and all of Congress. If they do that, they will pack the court and then all bets are off. At that point they bring in 2 new Democratic states, make abortion legal everywhere right up to birth, and who knows what else.
 
Dem leaning Morning Consult

  • Overall, we rate the Morning Consult as Left-Center biased based on polling that moderately favors Democratic candidates and reasonably low-biased news reporting. We also rate them as Mostly Factual based on 74% accuracy in predictive polling.



AtlasIntel leans a bit right so its really close right now. That Iowa poll seems looney.
 
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NorthDFWwx said:
And another one...

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These one-issue voters. Obviously white supremacy matters to them, and the left offers them more hope than Republicans. Sad. Maybe the Republicans will get on board someday soon. Republicans can’t afford to lose votes just because they don’t support race supremacy. Got to appeal to these people on some other issue.
 
Avalanche said:
These one-issue voters. Obviously white supremacy matters to them, and the left offers them more hope than Republicans. Sad. Maybe the Republicans will get on board someday soon. Republicans can’t afford to lose votes just because they don’t support race supremacy. Got to appeal to these people on some other issue.
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Another big win for the democrats
 
If all this is close to right then Trump loses, this means the women vote has gone against him in a big way and he will end up losing WI/PA/NC etc...Seltzer has never been off by more than 5 pts so assuming this is the case now then that means Iowa is +2 Trump...I personally think the women vote has gone against him in a big way and its under polled just like it was in 2020.



 
lexxnchloe said:
It would be the ultimate irony if the Iowa rep caucus voters gave us Trump who loses in a landslide. I still think Trump has a chance but we could have had DeSantis who has delivered on every conservative issue and is fighting like hell to stop Amendments 3 and 4 in FLA as we speak. If Trump does lose what happens next? Who does the party turn to? A Trump grifter like Vivek or a conservative like DeSantis?
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I would support both of them.
 
Downeastnc said:
If all this is close to right then Trump loses, this means the women vote has gone against him in a big way and he will end up losing WI/PA/NC etc...Seltzer has never been off by more than 5 pts so assuming this is the case now then that means Iowa is +2 Trump...I personally think the women vote has gone against him in a big way and its under polled just like it was in 2020.



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Now talk about how NYT / Siena also has Trump winning MI...
 
Downeastnc said:
Well I mean he is up half a percent on here there.....but hey yall can have MI we will take NC/NV/GA

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"Y'all"

I'm not voting for Trump.

But considering this poll is practically an outlier for NV/NC/GA *AND* liberal-leaning, I'm sure the Trump camp is ok with those results...
 
Bham 99 said:
Are you voting for? Just curious
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I'm not. I'm sitting this one out.

Harris *deserves* to lose IMO (and I do hate her). Honest to goodness, her Neoliberal supporters & the Never Trumpers annoy the ---- out of me and I would love to see them meltdown. That said, I also hate Trump for reasons that have been discussed by others ad-nauseam. Casting a vote for either in my mind would be an endorsement of them personally and their policies, which I can't do in good conscience.

That said, the way I see it, Trump is a known quantity after living through his first term, I live in Texas which was never a swing state and I make a comfortable enough income that I'll be fine wherever the chips fall.

I voted for Bernie in the 2016/2020 primaries and Biden in the 2020 general.
 
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From the NYT today

NYT: "Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans. That's a larger disparity than our earlier polls this year, and it's not much better than our final polls in 2020 — even with the pandemic over. It raises the possibility that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again."
 
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I've been watching the betting markets more since the polls are all over the place and this weekend they have started to swing towards Kamala after predicting Trump would win for the past two weeks or so. Here's another one that gives Trump a 51 percent chance of winning. If you look at the swing state data though that would be impossible with Harris favored to win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
 
NorthDFWwx said:
I'm not. I'm sitting this one out.

Harris *deserves* to lose IMO (and I do hate her). Honest to goodness, her Neoliberal supporters & the Never Trumpers annoy the ---- out of me and I would love to see them meltdown. That said, I also hate Trump for reasons that have been discussed by other ad-naseum. Casting a vote for either in my mind would be an endorsement of them personally and their policies, which I can'tdo in good conscious

That said, the way I see it, Trump is a known quantity after living through his first term, I live in Texas which was never a swing state and I make a comfortbale enough income that I'll be fine wherever the chips fall.

I voted for Bernie in the 2016/2020 primaries and Biden in the 2020 general.
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I wish everyone would vote on the direction of the country and not based on the personality traits of the candidate. What is ultimately going to matter 4 years from now and beyond is not mean Tweets or cackling. It's going to be whether or not we're closer or farther away from where you want the country and our society to be.

Almost every single candidate to grace the national stage has serious character flaws. Some show them openly and don't give a crap. Others do most of it behind the scenes. In those cases, you usually hear and see the occasional slip-ups or hot mic moments, etc. But almost all of these people are corrupt, narcissistic, and don't have experience living the life of the common person.

In the end, everyone is free to vote or not vote and to vote or not vote based on the things that matter to them. But in the objective reality that we live in, the material significance is centered around our direction as a nation and not someone's personality.

And please don't take this post as a lecture at you or anyone else here. It's just my opinion and how I see our collective responsibility as citizens and our voice in the future framework of our nation. I don't always like the options, but I like letting others decide my future for me even less.
 
Again if this stuff is even close to accurate Trump loses, he will not make it up by getting Amish or muslim or black votes...remember that Biden won 2020 with those numbers among white women and men....

 
Rain Cold said:
I wish everyone would vote on the direction of the country and not based on the personality traits of the candidate. What is ultimately going to matter 4 years from now and beyond is not mean Tweets or cackling. It's going to be whether or not we're closer or farther away from where you want the country and our society to be.

Almost every single candidate to grace the national stage has serious character flaws. Some show them openly and don't give a crap. Others do most of it behind the scenes. In those cases, you usually hear and see the occasional slip-ups or hot mic moments, etc. But almost all of these people are corrupt, narcissistic, and don't have experience living the life of the common person.

In the end, everyone is free to vote or not vote and to vote or not vote based on the things that matter to them. But in the objective reality that we live in, the material significance is centered around our direction as a nation and not someone's personality.

And please don't take this post as a lecture at you or anyone else here. It's just my opinion and how I see our collective responsibility as citizens and our voice in the future framework of our nation. I don't always like the options, but I like letting others decide my future for me even less.
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You guys still think people dont support Trump because of mean tweets lol...
 
Downeastnc said:
You guys still think people dont support Trump because of mean tweets lol...
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It was clearly a term I used to encapsulate a collection of personality attributes, as was "cackling". It's not surprising that you still think "bloodbath" refers to Trump supporters attacking democrats.
 
Rain Cold said:
It was clearly a term I used to encapsulate a collection of personality attributes, as was "cackling". It's not surprising that you still think "bloodbath" refers to Trump supporters attacking democrats.
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Its not about his personality at all, or his mean tweets, its about his statements and things he has done and says he is going to do.
 
Downeastnc said:
Its not about his personality at all, or his mean tweets, its about his statements and things he has done and says he is going to do.
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I think you have this a little mixed up. I think what you mean to say is that from your perspective, it's about what the media claims his statements to be and about what the media says that he has done and what the media says he's going to do.

And how I know this is because yall's posting history is a parade of anti-Trump, anti-Right talking points, spun up by the Trump-hating media which are either outright lies or which only tell half of the story. Most of it isn't based in anything even close to resembling reality.
 
Rain Cold said:
I wish everyone would vote on the direction of the country and not based on the personality traits of the candidate. What is ultimately going to matter 4 years from now and beyond is not mean Tweets or cackling. It's going to be whether or not we're closer or farther away from where you want the country and our society to be.

Almost every single candidate to grace the national stage has serious character flaws. Some show them openly and don't give a crap. Others do most of it behind the scenes. In those cases, you usually hear and see the occasional slip-ups or hot mic moments, etc. But almost all of these people are corrupt, narcissistic, and don't have experience living the life of the common person.

In the end, everyone is free to vote or not vote and to vote or not vote based on the things that matter to them. But in the objective reality that we live in, the material significance is centered around our direction as a nation and not someone's personality.

And please don't take this post as a lecture at you or anyone else here. It's just my opinion and how I see our collective responsibility as citizens and our voice in the future framework of our nation. I don't always like the options, but I like letting others decide my future for me even less.
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I certainly respect that opinion as well, although I don't necessarily agree.

But I will say this. l think what the past several elections cycles show is that everyone agrees the status quo as it stands is seriously flawed and major change in some fashion is needed. The problem is we're so starkly divided on what the solutions are while the problems and discontentment just continue to fester.

If the new norm is going to be toss-up Presidential elections and a 50-50 split Congress where nothing meaningful is accomplished, it's not going to end well for anyone in America if increasingly more people feel politically homeless due to legislative gridlock preventing the issues that are important to them from being addressed.
 
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