Storm5
Member
Tonight’s/tomorrow early am freezing threat could very well be the best threat over the next ten days
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Pattern Jarring January
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
Grief
Storm5
Member
We haven’t wasted it yet
Stormlover
Member
We have a storm threat this weekend and it's about to be humpday and it will still be a while? Huh?
Lol
Note that this includes the two waves preceding it and that it also includes ZR.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
It is a non threat because the only model showing anything is the goofus.
Storm5
Member
A storm threat nothing supports the gfs not even the ensembles . All the NWS offices are tossing the gfs .
Snowflowxxl
Member
What threat?
pcbjr
Member
Does anyone know why the 2 meter temp.'s for the GEFS tend to be colder than the respective GFS despite the same 850s/H5, etc.? It is almost as if the GEFS has an extra level of cold bias that was possibly removed from the GFS. It appears this starts at hour 6 rather than at initialization and again it is at 2 meters, not at 850.
Lol
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Pfft...
Wait, listen, hear that sound? That is either the air coming out of our threat or JB farting out another '93 superstorm.
MichaelJ
Member
I am almost certain the GFS/CMC temps will not come close to verifying come New Years, yes it will be cold but 10-15 degrees warmer then Goofy shows in most SE areas
GeorgiaGirl
Member
With even the significant 2014 cold snap it reached 31 in Augusta (mid 20s where I was at then, but that's not the point). In some alternate world where the doofus actually verified Jan 2 would be 1985 like stuff. I know it's wrong, and it's bad it's that wrong
Euro still paints teens for my area around then.. I think it's a tad too warm.. So, bottom line, this New Year's Cold snap is probably the real deal.. Widespread teen lows for certain.
BPATL
Member
Why in hell don't u tell where you are? Sorry, just kind of irritating??????
BPATL
Member
From what i have seen, single digits are more likely,,>>>???
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Try teens. Single digits are the Goofy's nausea. Reasonable temps are freezing highs for a day or two and lows in the low 20s to teens fora few days.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
But this cold snap is real, despite the cold bias. Tbh at least in North Georgia the temps predicted early on by the GFS weren't that far off for Christmas either, but it was way off south of there.
The EPS/Euro has a stretch of mid 30s, and while it's not ridiculous it's more than run of the mill cold for the South.
The EPS/Euro has a stretch of mid 30s, and while it's not ridiculous it's more than run of the mill cold for the South.
Despite being a scrooge, I do agree with what SD said in the earlier pages here on a storm when the pattern breaks down. Unless it just slowly breaks down there will be a lot of residual cold air and more importantly very low dew points around. Probably gonna be a decent ice threat before it goes
Storm5
Member
Erie PA today
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RollTide18
Member
After seeing the GEFS mean decrease, I've decided to punt this.
Fwiw here is 12Z FV3 compared to OP 12Z GFS from earlier today. The slp crossing over Florida looks similar to the new 18Z GFS in regards to that which has the snow line further South similar to 18Z run.
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Brent
Member
from one terrible model to another
Yea I agree...FV3 trended dry with that syetem this last run so definitely take fwiw
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BPATL
Member
Fwiw here is 12Z FV3 compared to OP 12Z GFS from earlier today. The slp crossing over Florida looks similar to the new 18Z GFS in regards to that which has the snow line further South similar to 18Z run.
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I'll take that low about 100 miles south of that 12Z FV3 position and preferably 200 miles to also give Phil a shot.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's not very good but it's a very modest shift in the right direction (like in this case on it's showing a slightly more suppressed storm than the GFS, which is probably the right idea...)
BPATL
Member
Erie PA today
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What a difference from last year, but honestly that looks like hell.. As much as all of us "Southern" weenies are, we could not take that for more than 10 days, that is the beauty of living in the SE.. Even when the great snow of 3 week's ago in certain area of GA, AL it got somewhat depressing after 8 days on the ground,(shady areas)..Think how long 50- to 70 inches of snow takes to go away,not even January yet, yes some La Nina so far..,,ERIE,,lol..
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This isn't a new model in the sense that everything is different vs the GFS, they only changed the dynamic core which is equivalent to removing your computer's CPU and replacing it w/ a newer & faster one. You still have the same computer just runs slightly better. That's not to say this model won't be better because it probably is but this is still bad unfortunately, just less so
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Minnesota looks warm... Not. I've been to Roseau in mid-January and experienced low temperatures around -40F, it's a whole other level of cold I probably don't wanna experience again
lowest I've personally experienced in my lifetime is -5, here in Chattanooga... official low was 2. Think it was 1996. But my house is out in the burbs. It was amazing. I missed the Noog's -10 in 1985, was living in Texas at the time.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Fail Version 3. That's what I'm calling the FV3 from now on.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Once you reach well below -20-25F you start having trouble breathing because the air is so cold. It's not a fun time
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol DT just got wrecked on twitter posting long range GFS cold porn after he called JB an idiot for doing it. Granted I think he was trying to make a point how the GFS was far out in left field but I still think it's funny....
heh, I really like that term, 'cold porn'.
NWMSGuy
Member
So has there ever been a time in winters past that the GFS advertised a winter storm with no other model support only to wind up verifying?