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Pattern Jarring January

GeorgiaGirl said:
I haven't seen that but I have seen off of a storm, light snow just develop and sit over me. No accum but it was some good snow TV.
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I have encountered Lake Moultrie effect snow here locally once back in around 2000. It put a quick dusting to an inch in a small area in Goose Creek in about a 30 minute window. Very localized.
 
I highly doubt that the ridiculous cold being advertised on the GFS actually verifies, but the potential is certainly there for us to at least have another arctic outbreak similar to the one in January 2014. The law of averages says that we are over for such an event and it's somewhat common historically in La Nina winters to have these pipe bursting cold outbreaks.
 
Charlie, wasn't you gonna start the thread after oz tonight? I guess your waiting to see what the Doc says.
 
Yep. -12 here and snow in the middle of GOM. :D

IMG_0266.jpg
 
Euro is much warmer here next weekend than the GFS

Almost 30 degrees warmer for the high next Monday. Not even colder than this week.
 
wish tropical tidbits showed Euro precip... it's colder though, with a low off the coast:
ecmwf_T850_us_6.png
 
Definitely very interesting on the Euro. Some wintery stuff falling, a mix maybe across central AL at 168hrs. Temps very borderline.
 
Something to watch, but not really much verbatim on the Euro. Like I said, temps will be a big problem on that run for the spittle that does fall.
 
Euro is so much warmer its not even that cold

We barely even hit freezing on this run while the GFS had 3 days we fail to make freezing

:rolleyes:
 
HSV is buying the cold:
As most models push a strong cold front through the region Monday
morning, our first true arctic air pushes into the Tennessee
Valley. Highs in the lower 30s look like a good possibility (this
may be generous) with lows it the teens for sure Monday through
Tuesday night. If we do see the afore-mentioned snowfall over the
weekend or Monday, temperatures might only make it into the teens or
lower 20s on Monday (with lows in the single digits) due to snowpack
effects and lingering cloud cover.
 
Stormlover said:
HSV is buying the cold:
As most models push a strong cold front through the region Monday
morning, our first true arctic air pushes into the Tennessee
Valley. Highs in the lower 30s look like a good possibility (this
may be generous) with lows it the teens for sure Monday through
Tuesday night. If we do see the afore-mentioned snowfall over the
weekend or Monday, temperatures might only make it into the teens or
lower 20s on Monday (with lows in the single digits) due to snowpack
effects and lingering cloud cover.
Click to expand...
That’s taking the middles ground . Nothing supports the gfs cold . We’ve seen all winter have it overplays the cold . Here is the eps . While still cold no doubt it’s nowhere near the gfs op cold
efb8629a8967c3c86aa73f7e4bcf219f.jpg
 
The GFS is WAY too cold IMO and will verify 10-15 degrees warmer. We see this time and again every winter, the temps modify greatly after showing cold 3-5 days before, much the same as it tends to underestimate the cold in a CAD even, the Goofy misses the temps during a cold snap only in the other direction.
 
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