• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jarring January

Or that ^^ It's probably the RGEM called the CMC on some sites.
 
Webberweather53 said:
GFS is going to lose this storm before long unless something changes lol the southwesterly flow in the mid-levels is falling off w/ every run, thus we're eventually not going to have much, if any moisture to work with as verification approaches.
View attachment 2356
Click to expand...
No poo train yet!!! We all know the gfs at 00z tonight 12z tomorrow will have nothing . Let us enjoy this fantasy for a few more hours
 
The GFS looks weird with that storm, if it were much more refined I'd think it'd be MUCH warmer and a lot further north.
 
I'm not buying any model, .much less Goofy, 6 days out for my rarely hit area near the coast. However, even the EPS has suggested a threat to the coast on 1/1 in past runs. With the possibility once again of an unusually strong and expansive high even noting GFS bias, the chances for something quite unusual (dare I say maybe even boardwide (yes, possibly even including the extremely rare Phil hit) would be much higher than normal if a huge high anywhere close to that could somehow verify.

Regardless, the 18Z Goofy surface low track fwiw is not too far off the perfect track based on old wx maps to give the rare wintry precip all of the way to the GA/SC coasts. What we need for a better chance and even colder air in here earlier is for it to dip further down into the Gulf before taking that track across central or south FL (far S FL for Phil would be nice).
 
One thing the gfs does have on its side with the New Year’s Day storm. It is in the good range of the gfs when it does the best. Within 5 days (108hrs). So tomorrow we will start getting within nam long range.
 
If we don't score on the 1st, GFS gives us another storm on the 5th! I love you GFS!
 
lmao the GFS is going for another cold snap in coin flip land. That's sure to show 70+ degree weather on the 00z.
 
Does anyone anyone know how to load video. Was going to load video of the 18z gfs our weather guy used just now.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Given what's transpired of late we may need to be more concerned w/ it getting suppressed into oblivion instead of cutting into the Lakes
Click to expand...

On looking back on this run I can see what you are saying. Obviously I’d rather deal w/suppression vs the cutter but we’ll see.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Clem282340 said:
What's making the storm shift south
Click to expand...

The GFS consistently tries to dump a trough into the Rockies and western US and push the persistent trough over SE Canada out of the way into the North Atlantic too quickly, this causes the once moist west-southwest/southwesterly flow to veer out of the west-northwest and become predominantly dry as the trough further west fizzles and trough deepens over New England and SE Canada.
 
Shawn said:
Why is that local met above showing the average viewer a GFS run, known damn well, it is on it's own so soon?
Click to expand...
Who knows. Lol. For the ratings probably. He isn’t the chief meteorologist. He seems to be always on vacation. Lol
 
GaWx said:
I'm not buying any model, .much less Goofy, 6 days out for my rarely hit area near the coast. However, even the EPS has suggested a threat to the coast on 1/1 in past runs. With the possibility once again of an unusually strong and expansive high even noting GFS bias, the chances for something quite unusual (dare I say maybe even boardwide (yes, possibly even including the extremely rare Phil hit) would be much higher than normal if a huge high anywhere close to that could somehow verify.

Regardless, the 18Z Goofy surface low track fwiw is not too far off the perfect track based on old wx maps to give the rare wintry precip all of the way to the GA/SC coasts. What we need for a better chance and even colder air in here earlier is for it to dip further down into the Gulf before taking that track across central or south FL (far S FL for Phil would be nice).
Click to expand...
I'm not buying any either. No model is seeming consistent with one another, the GFS being a stubborn rock of major storms and record cold, the Euro being dry, the CMC being the weird fence in between.

I don't care about the Swiss model as it has so localized of an area I feel it is just like looking at the corner of the NAM for the tropics. Blows everything up because it can't see anything.

The German model? Maybe it did well once or twice but I would like to see it across an entire year and not just in winter. See how it stands up to severe weather and hurricanes if it can before passing any more judgement.

The UKMET isn't in range 90% of the time unless a storm actually gets close to happening.

The other short range models aren't close so what even is the point except 48 hours out?

Anyone riding the JMA and the other trains that have no wheels are just desperate.

Something got into the models that is making each one respond differently, and I'm not sure what it is. Maybe its that unlikely high pressure and extreme cold that is messing up the solutions. Hopefully the model madness comes to a consensus about something.
 
Decrease continues on the 18z gefs
8155bb2c739564e50dc18fdf2d81f8d9.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
I'm not buying any model, .much less Goofy, 6 days out for my rarely hit area near the coast. However, even the EPS has suggested a threat to the coast on 1/1 in past runs. With the possibility once again of an unusually strong and expansive high even noting GFS bias, the chances for something quite unusual (dare I say maybe even boardwide (yes, possibly even including the extremely rare Phil hit) would be much higher than normal if a huge high anywhere close to that could somehow verify.

Regardless, the 18Z Goofy surface low track fwiw is not too far off the perfect track based on old wx maps to give the rare wintry precip all of the way to the GA/SC coasts. What we need for a better chance and even colder air in here earlier is for it to dip further down into the Gulf before taking that track across central or south FL (far S FL for Phil would be nice).
Click to expand...
Larry,
Thanks!
Not nearly as sophisticated as your muse, but essentially I touched on somewhat the same point about models past 72 hours in Banter a little while ago.
Let's see where we go, but the current road map we're all looking at is like a really old one found in the glove compartment -- coffee stained and pretty much illegible ...
Best!
Phil
 
Storm5 said:
Decrease continues on the 18z gefs
8155bb2c739564e50dc18fdf2d81f8d9.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Well when the models were showning the suppression start on op runs, the ensembles didn't show this until a few cycles later. The ensembles are no greater than their op models, IMO
 
Eh I don't think the goofus has backed off yet on the cold but it's coming once it loses New Years Day for good. Then it'll show cold but more reasonable...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top