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Misc Winter Weather Support Group
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2021
- Messages
- 3,929
- Reaction score
- 12,347
- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
Big stupid is well funded
Not going to get too deep into this stuff, but I'm seeing 4F 850mb for mby showing up on these things in the time-frame. That's a bit extreme, but dang dude. It's been a long time since I've seen anything like this.
We'll be seeing Winter weather in Northern FL if this keeps up!
We'll be seeing Winter weather in Northern FL if this keeps up!
LickWx
Member
Links or we don’t believe you
First off, the data I am using is protected. Second off, it's extremely experimental. Third off, I posted some teasers earlier today.
IF things start to look good across the board, I'll post more of it closer to time. I'm looking for the Ensembles of our mainstream models to start really biting if there's truth to this.
LickWx
Member
Can’t keep teasing us that’s messed up
Breaking the PV off is part of it; which has shown recently on the mainstream models
What’s up with people creating their own models
Actually, looking at the Feb thread... it looks like others are starting to see what I hinted at earlier and it's not on experimental poop
I'm actually excited for this period, and that never happens.
BUCKLE UP FOLKS.
Machine Learning is the future.
Really, it's pointless looking at these patterns and indicies and model runs more than 5 days out. It's not like looking at all of it is going to make things happen the way we want. We're not going to make it snow looking at the model run 7 days from now. The weather patterns can look great for snow based on what happened in the past but that doesn't mean it's going to happen the same now. The weather is going to do what it's gling to do. We have no control over it. Knowing that it MIGHT snow a week from now is not going to change anything compared to if we saw the local weather man say it's going to snow the day before. It's just a distraction from life and it's really a waste of time and useless. 
Mark my words Brick. There will be multiple waves floating around, some wiffles some waffles, and some bangers. The banger is gonna come with a slight relax of the cold push.
TO BE FAIR; I would worry about too much cold for up your way but who knows.
Bill Smith
Member
Cary_Snow95
Member
You’ll be copy and pasting loops from American in 10 days time
Neither is anybody else. See GaWx post and everybody elses post in Feb thread. Nothing till after the 15th atleast! ? for you
Once upon a time, in the small town of Frostville, lived a man named Brick. Brick was not your ordinary man. He was known far and wide as the "Snow Weenie".
Brick had an unusual fascination with snow. He loved everything about it - the way it fell from the sky, the way it blanketed the town, and even the way it crunched under his boots. He would spend hours outside, building snowmen, creating intricate snow sculptures, and even hosting the annual Frostville Snowball Fight.
However, Brick's love for snow was not just for fun. He believed that snow had a magical quality to it. He thought it brought people together, made the world a little quieter, and turned the ordinary into something extraordinary.
One winter, Frostville experienced the biggest snowfall it had ever seen. While others were worried, Brick was ecstatic. He put on his warmest clothes and stepped outside, ready to embrace the snow. He spent the entire day helping his neighbors shovel their driveways, making sure everyone was safe, and of course, playing in the snow.
That day, Brick's love for snow brought the town together. People started helping each other, kids were playing outside, and there was laughter echoing through the streets of Frostville. Brick, the Snow Weenie, showed everyone that even in the coldest winters, there's warmth to be found.
And so, Brick's legend lived on, warming the hearts of Frostville's residents, one snowflake at a time.
Brick had an unusual fascination with snow. He loved everything about it - the way it fell from the sky, the way it blanketed the town, and even the way it crunched under his boots. He would spend hours outside, building snowmen, creating intricate snow sculptures, and even hosting the annual Frostville Snowball Fight.
However, Brick's love for snow was not just for fun. He believed that snow had a magical quality to it. He thought it brought people together, made the world a little quieter, and turned the ordinary into something extraordinary.
One winter, Frostville experienced the biggest snowfall it had ever seen. While others were worried, Brick was ecstatic. He put on his warmest clothes and stepped outside, ready to embrace the snow. He spent the entire day helping his neighbors shovel their driveways, making sure everyone was safe, and of course, playing in the snow.
That day, Brick's love for snow brought the town together. People started helping each other, kids were playing outside, and there was laughter echoing through the streets of Frostville. Brick, the Snow Weenie, showed everyone that even in the coldest winters, there's warmth to be found.
And so, Brick's legend lived on, warming the hearts of Frostville's residents, one snowflake at a time.
You do realize that a pattern that’s lead to winter storms in the southeast in the past doesn’t mean that they lead to a winter storm every time the pattern developed? This is a weather board. Of course to look at the pattern that looks to be developing, there is strong model and numerical agreement that a colder than average and potentially stormy pattern is developing and it’s not nearly 300 hours out
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JHS
Member
The 18z GFS is awfully unimpressive as far as winter precip and cold goes. Never really goes much below freezing here for the whole run and turns warmer at the end.
I would say taking the operational GFS verbatim any run past 5-6 days is messing up.
I can't wait to see the word verbatim, push all my chips in, and every man for himself every other post the next couple weeks.
Don’t forget, “if we don’t score with this look we suck”
Cary_Snow95
Member
I have “if you tweak this just a little it’s a monster for the whole board” and “if that run went 6 hours further it was likely heading for glory” on my bingo card
What about “dig you pig” and “suppression”
What about CBT ?
For those who say El Niño and La Niña don’t do what they used to, this is a great example of La Niña, and El Niño doing what they are suppose to do. Last year at this time sub-seasonally it was over for winter, just no hope at this time last year.
And next year at this time there will be no hope again.
I’d like to experience these again. I wasn’t around in 85’ but 14’ was a banger. Stupid cold
I was there in ‘89
It was amazing! Hate we missed the storm
I was there too! But I was only 6-7 months old ? froze the pacifier in my mouth
Better be 2-3 new pages when I wake up in the morning. I can’t hold my eyes open
This has been, pattern wise, typical of our “good” winters, sans the snow. First 3 weeks of Jan was a darn cold pattern and big winter storms for mid west, Deep South and MA. We then got the 2 week breather, now cold comes again.
But, can we get a good 2-3 multiple events affecting the east.
But, can we get a good 2-3 multiple events affecting the east.
Yep. Unless we somehow go cool neutral or weak nina, but earlier-mid next winter would most likely be the time period of interest
Omg. lol. coreytucker. Definitely a memorable one. Always stressing over his dew point.
Someone post this on --’s Twitter feed 
Blane20181990
Member
