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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

Rain Cold said:
Lol you better take a break the next 3 years then

Edit: Dang I thought you said Ninas. You can stay. :D
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Fortunately for us after strong nino's should typically get a nina or at worse neutral.

Sad that we have to hope for nina's to get snow, but it's where we are.
 
lexxnchloe said:
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Heart of winter temps and Normals go up from here.
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Its coming...
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I'm doing some things in the back end of the site. Seems like everything's broken, so I'm just going to leave it and hope nobody notices. Apologies in advance.

You guys should seriously look into the machine learning models on the ECMWF website. They seem extremely good for what I've looked over and forecasts so far. It's scary.

They never had a system for next week, aside from some warmer rain, a little sleet, and out to sea.
 
On the machine learning front, I am noticing more and more of their use from the NWS. The WPC were mentioning them the other day in the long range discussion.

Things are about to be a lot better modeling wise guys. These things are legit.
 
Snow Sucks! said:
On the machine learning front, I am noticing more and more of their use from the NWS. The WPC were mentioning them the other day in the long range discussion.

Things are about to be a lot better modeling wise guys. These things are legit.
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Great. We'll never see snow again. At least once in a while we get to see it at 300 hours out
 
Last day of January and not even a freeze in sight. Wow. We are not even ahead of last winters nightmare on snow so far although last winter never had anything else after this date...
 
I mean modeling can only be as good as the data/obs put in to it at the start of the run. I'd assume that's the hang up for making any big jumps in med-long range verification.

A "perfect" model is still going get skewed off course by the observation data put in to it.
 
rburrel2 said:
I mean modeling can only be as good as the data/obs put in to it at the start of the run. I'd assume that's the hang up for making any big jumps in med-long range verification.

A "perfect" model is still going get skewed off course by the observation data put in to it.
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From what I'm seeing, the ECMWF guys are feeding these models their initialization data to run them on a testing basis.. with good results.

All I know is euro is getting rid of the op runs soon, in favor of the eps and they are working on their own machine learning model based off tech of some of these good ones out there.
 
FallsLake said:
Going to Florida the end of February. Going to do Disney World. Keep getting a feeling we'll (mid/upper SE) score a winter storm then. Not sure how I would feel, walking around the "Most magical place on earth" while it snows back home.
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Hey, I’ll be there from like the 19-25th or so
 
KyloG said:
I loathe nino's...I hope we never see another one again.
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Hi my name is @SD welcome to team nina. Here you will find a massive western ridge potential from December to late January and a SER in Feb. The rain snow line isn't always kind but the potential to get a massive storm is always around
 
Snow Sucks! said:
It can work both ways though. When it does show something when others don't...
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Your right,
Unfortunately Rain Cold's logic still stands.
How often do we actually get snow in the last 5-6 years.
Hate to have a model be so accurate it kills the thrill of the chase.
 
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