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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

Don’t know when the damnE79F6FB4-DD02-4F4E-8CBA-04611DBA6F91.png pattern change is coming or SSW, but Jesus we need help up here! Only 15-25 degrees above normal for next 2 weeks
 
packfan98 said:
Yeah. It’s too close to write off at this lead time. We seemingly get slightly favorable changes each run and different looks at the surface to keep things interesting. What’s your gut feeling right now?
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You definitely can’t count this out yet but it seems like we’re stuck between a rock and a hard place in this setup. While I have some reservations about the lack of precip inland of the coastal low, many of the colder solutions are also drier with mass subsidence behind the trough, while the wetter ones mostly focus wintry precip over the mtns and are too warm. Even if all the synoptic pieces fall into place for us, it still might be a struggle to get much of anything here.

Alll that being said, given the uncertainties at play (Rex blocking type patterns are notoriously difficult to forecast in the medium range) there’s still a chance here. Heck, even as this trough moves out over me on Friday and Saturday, we still don’t have a good grasp on what the winds are gonna be like here because the EPS and GEFS + GEPS are so far apart setup-wise.
 
The precip is coming inland. Just don't think it's going to sit off the coast. Had the same feeling before all the mets started sounding the alarms on the 11:00 news that night in January 2000. I remember looking at the radar before leaving work that night and thinking there's no way all that precip is going to miss us
 
Atleast it looks like we will have one more shot sometime in mid feb. Now will it work out probably not. I’m sure something will not go our way. But oh well.
 
I am more inclined to think the problem with the system next week would be lack of cold air than lack of precip. Lack of precip is not something we have had this winter.
 
FallsLake said:
Going to Florida the end of February. Going to do Disney World. Keep getting a feeling we'll (mid/upper SE) score a winter storm then. Not sure how I would feel, walking around the "Most magical place on earth" while it snows back home.
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I'm in Utah the last week of Feb...I ain't worried about missing a snow event here in Raleigh.
 
SD said:
Good we can see if either of you are bad luck.
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Considering all the pattern chasing going on in the February thread, this should hit everyone in their jollies, but I'll be out of town 2/15 - 2/19. I'm pretty sure everyone on this board will agree if Mother Nature hates anyone here, we know who it is...may want to go ahead and fire up the thread for that time period.
 
KyloG said:
I'm in Utah the last week of Feb...I ain't worried about missing a snow event here in Raleigh.
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I've been to Boone about every month this winter (own a house / remodeling). Been up there three times when it has snowed. It was really nice, but it's not the same as a low elevation (..home) snow.
 
1300m said:
Considering all the pattern chasing going on in the February thread, this should hit everyone in their jollies, but I'll be out of town 2/15 - 2/19. I'm pretty sure everyone on this board will agree if Mother Nature hates anyone here, we know who it is...may want to go ahead and fire up the thread for that time period.
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I guess I need to leave to see if it's me too
 
1300m said:
Considering all the pattern chasing going on in the February thread, this should hit everyone in their jollies, but I'll be out of town 2/15 - 2/19. I'm pretty sure everyone on this board will agree if Mother Nature hates anyone here, we know who it is...may want to go ahead and fire up the thread for that time period.
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?

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-conus-z500_anom_7day-8387200.png
ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom_7day-8473600.png
 
SD said:
Good we can see if either of you are bad luck.
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1300m said:
Considering all the pattern chasing going on in the February thread, this should hit everyone in their jollies, but I'll be out of town 2/15 - 2/19. I'm pretty sure everyone on this board will agree if Mother Nature hates anyone here, we know who it is...may want to go ahead and fire up the thread for that time period.
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I have to decide today or tomorrow whether to travel the week of 2/26 or 3/4. I feel like if I travel the week of 2/26 Raleigh will get 10-12" on 2/27 but if I move it to 3/4 or later it won't snow. Tough decision...
 
ILMRoss said:
mainly referring to the non-euro suite. you're not wrong it doesn't look great

tbh haven't had a change this morning to take a fair crack at the euro as i've been selling some speakers on the fb marketplace. a dude drove all the way from newport news to sit in my living room and listen to radiohead

the euro isn't infallible but it has me on "cave watch" for everything else on the 12z suite
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This post is very funny for to me I can't lie. Radiohead is that important I guess.
 
Time is running out. You guys do a great job by the way. I just hope when upper 50's and 60's for highs come back next week they don't stay for the rest of February. Close to 800 days east of the mountains snowless. We are due....
 
ILMRoss said:
tbh haven't had a change this morning to take a fair crack at the euro as i've been selling some speakers on the fb marketplace. a dude drove all the way from newport news to sit in my living room and listen to radiohead
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You still have both kidneys?
 
Snowlover87 said:
I have a hard time believing the next cold wave will be stronger than the one earlier this month. It’s a lot harder to get that kind of cold in Late February than it is in Mid January.
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Yea its over, severe season starts soon. We all know it doesn't snow in late Feb or March anymore in ATLANTA!
 
rburrel2 said:
Did you tell him how much models overdo dynamic cooling these days?
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Seriously though it still can be a thing that even the hi-res models don't fully pick up.
It saved me and delivered glory for this storm from my notes:

February 8, 20203.25 inches all snowmin temp
31.5-32.2		all snow, started at 10:15am ended around 1:45pmhi res models showed a dusting to an inch, and warm surface temps. globals showed nothing in the medium range. - 4 850's and -2 925mb. surface temps rose to 33.5 as it ended. beautiful tree sticking snow
 
LukeBarrette said:
This post is very funny for to me I can't lie. Radiohead is that important I guess.
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it's just what came on shuffle. i was spending 10 seconds per song to give him the full sonic experience. radiohead song played was "jigsaw falling into place" btw. was really close to playing him sicko mode to try out the bass

was kind of funny to tell this guy at 8:45 to be like "come in and sit here my bluetooth is ready"
BullCityWx said:
You still have both kidneys?
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still have both kidneys and i'm 240 richer
 
LukeBarrette said:
It’s just Weather Analysis 2 I’ll be ok haha. I’ll really have to pay attention when I take Dynamics next school year.
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ok fair. tbh despite how dorky this sounds those intro to weather-ish courses are a breeze if you've been ingesting forecasting and learning via osmosis on fb groups and forums and twitter for years
 
ILMRoss said:
ok fair. tbh despite how dorky this sounds those intro to weather-ish courses are a breeze if you've been ingesting forecasting and learning via osmosis on fb groups and forums and twitter for years
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You’re exactly right, I got a 98 in Analysis 1 without studying one luck. Just knew most of it already. I guarantee most on this board could do the same.
 
LukeBarrette said:
You’re exactly right, I got a 98 in Analysis 1 without studying one luck. Just knew most of it already. I guarantee most on this board could do the same.
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its fun bc you probably met some of your cohort at orientation and have group chats that's just half gfs screenshots and half memes and you're having in depth forecasting arguments

and you walk in to the first meteorology class and the professor is like

good morning. today we will be discussing high pressure vs low pressure.
 
ILMRoss said:
its fun bc you probably met some of your cohort at orientation and have group chats that's just half gfs screenshots and half memes and you're having in depth forecasting arguments

and you walk in to the first meteorology class and the professor is like

good morning. today we will be discussing high pressure vs low pressure.
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There are a couple group chats with the Met Club and Forecasting Club that are just the Met students posting fantasy images from every single model in existence.
 
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