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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

This could be the big one here after all these little teasers

One thing for sure it's gonna usher in probably the worst cold here since February 2021
 
sfct-mean-imp.us_ma.png

Looks like a repeat of last Saturday.
 
From a 500 MB level, what needs to happen to make this go boom for us here in the Mid-South?
 
For those of us in north Alabama who remember the January’21 storm…this looks like a repeat. It snowed 3 inches in northern Madison county while east/southeast parts of the county saw a cold rain. Please not again
 
Pup12 said:
For those of us in north Alabama who remember the January’21 storm…this looks like a repeat. It snowed 3 inches in northern Madison county while east/southeast parts of the county saw a cold rain. Please not again
Click to expand...
I am also getting the 6 inches 50 miles north of me - cold rain here vibes after today, hoping it will change.
 
CaryWx said:
I wouldn't count out a line from Norfolk/Raleigh/Charlotte/GSP to all areas north & west just yet. Need a better press though
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I mentioned a couple days ago that this could end up being a Miller B/CAD for those of us east of the mountains. That vortex in se Canada appears to be trending in the right direction
 
Latest from Memphis regarding the potential winter storm for the Mid-South:

Guidance indicating the potential for an impactful winter storm
Sunday night into Monday as an even colder airmass moves into the
Midsouth. Snowfall totals are still highly questionable but
accumulating snow looks possible. Perhaps more importantly is the
extreme cold expected early next week. Morning lows Monday are
expected to be in the teens with below zero temperatures possible
Tuesday morning. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the upper
teens to middle 20`s across most of the area resulting in
multiple days of sub freezing temperatures. A Wind Chill Advisory
will likely be needed for portions of the Midsouth. Now is the
time to prepare for this upcoming cold snap.
 
The 18z icon isn't consolidating the first vortex and as a result seems to be pressing the height field down significantly with the 2nd lobe which would be exactly what we need out in front of our potential day 7 storm. Assuming it can turn the corner and generate precip I'd imagine it would be mostly snow for those of us east of the apps. Only question is if there's enough room for amplification behind the 2nd lobe.

Thoughts?Screen Shot 2024-01-09 at 4.31.51 PM.png
 
You can see here the 12z GFS just has a consolidated vortex and thus there isn't a secondary cold press. With that look we're most likely screwed east of the apps, (unless the vortex itself trends a lot further south and east.

Screen Shot 2024-01-09 at 4.35.36 PM.png
 
Cold is definitely pressing quicker this run.
 
This looks to be nothing but some light snow for most of the midsouth except for ares of I40. one thing that is becoming certain is there is some very cold air on the way
 
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