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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Torchtember said:
I work outside and this summer was actually very pleasant in SC. I would have never guessed we were on pace for this. Hmm
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Yes, I said while ago the summer was quite pleasant for many in the SE US but the temperatures late last winter, spring, and fall have more than made up for the cool/pleasant summer we had this year.
 
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Stormlover said:
Not really, I'm in the Tenn Valley and nothing on that here..NW trend!
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Problem is the gfs could be too progressive with front which it does often . I still say the best chance of any frozen stuff around christmas is back to the NW around Memphis . Time will tell. At least it appears we won’t be near 60 on Christmas Day
 
It would be something else if AL had two 6"+ snowstorms in December. This could go down as the greatest winter on record in some areas.
 
I just love being on the warm fence..
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Storm5 said:
Problem is the gfs could be too progressive with front which it does often . I still say the best chance of any frozen stuff around christmas is back to the NW around Memphis . Time will tell. At least it appears we won’t be near 60 on Christmas Day
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You could be right, but this is starting to look to familiar. Gfs has been showing this for runs now, so it could happen for those whos been praying for a white Christmas lol.
 
Looks like some thermo issues again this run aloft... Like I said yesterday I believe screaming a possible icy setup... Edit to say talking about AL folks here... Northern fringe maybe less of an issue of model output correct of course


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Xtreme Weather said:
Looks like some thermo issues again this run aloft... Like I said yesterday I believe screaming a possible icy setup... Edit to say talking about AL folks here... Northern fringe maybe less of an issue of model output correct of course


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I agree . This screams ice vs snow. I’m not picky though. I’ll take an icy mess
 
I know alot of ppl on here thinks this Christmas storm wont verify,
Storm5 said:
I agree . This screams ice vs snow. I’m not picky though. I’ll take an icy mess
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Storm, if this were to verify, would you think your area would see more snow and my area ice? Or a ice to change over to snow event?
 
Storm5 said:
I agree . This screams ice vs snow. I’m not picky though. I’ll take an icy mess
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You take your icy mess and I'll take Darklordsuperstorm's avatar.... Merry Christmas!
Anyway I still like the cold push after this system

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Meanwhile from J.P. Dice on facebook. Hmmm
"FIRST ALERT: There is a threat for some gusty winds along with a marginal (low) tornado risk Tuesday night into Wednesday morning because of some increased wind shear and a small increase in surface-based instability. Most of this will be just a bunch of heavy rain. I'm out this week, but Wes and Jill are monitoring closely for changes. Make sure you have the WBRC First Alert weather app. This does not look like a huge deal, but worth watching."
 
metwannabe said:
You take your icy mess and I'll take Darklordsuperstorm's avatar.... Merry Christmas!
Anyway I still like the cold push after this system

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Cold push was much quicker this run impacting western areas. Let’s face it , being so Far East your gonna be last for many weather changes. You need to move . Try Boston I hear they do well lol


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Storm5 said:
Cold push was much quicker this run impacting western areas. Let’s face it , being so Far East your gonna be last for many weather changes. You need to move . Try Boston I hear they do well lol


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He gets one early December winter storm and the guy thinks he's Jack Frost

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Some wintry weather is certainly possible in association w/ the passage of the arctic front as we approach Christmas especially in the southern Plains/Arklatex (even w/ cold air chasing moisture), anything specific beyond that going into the New Year is up in the air and is merely noise at this juncture
 
metwannabe said:
He gets one early December winter storm and the guy thinks he's Jack Frost

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No Jack Frost here , looking for one more before January because Webber has me buying shorts and sunblock for the incoming pattern flip as we roll into next month
 
Cold push will need to be much better for anyone east of the mountains to have a shot at Christmas snow. Even for me up here GFS temps looked really bad.
 
Storm5 said:
No Jack Frost here , looking for one more before January because Webber has me buying shorts and sunblock for the incoming pattern flip as we roll into next month
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The first week of January certainly looks cool, I'm just hopeful we can avoid turning blowtorch warm through at least the climatological peak of the snow season here (~ January 25th/MLK Day) before the SE US ridge probably begins to take over. Certainly encouraging to see the Siberian Vortex remain a prominent feature for the next week or so (yet again) & continue to delay/slow the inevitable mid-late winter intensification of the polar vortex in the midst of the ongoing La Nina
 
I'm mildly intrigued about Christmas for my destination (again) but until the wild swings stop I'll keep my shorts ready.;)
 
Webberweather53 said:
The first week of January certainly looks cool, I'm just hopeful we can avoid turning blowtorch warm through at least the climatological peak of the snow season here (~ January 25th/MLK Day) before the SE US ridge probably begins to take over. Certainly encouraging to see the Siberian Vortex remain a prominent feature for the next week or so (yet again) & continue to delay/slow the inevitable mid-late winter intensification of the polar vortex in the midst of the ongoing La Nina
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The low-pass filtered constructed analog upper level height pattern from Paul Roundy's site looks pretty good until about the last week of January when the SE US ridge tries to come to life.
It's certainly not doing a bad job in capturing the general look of the pattern going into early January. One important note here is while the models try to push this ridge towards northeastern Eurasia in the longer term (as you'd anticipate based on planetary vorticity advection of large-scale planetary waves), the vortex has been more prominent than forecast in the last few model cycles...
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