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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

ForsythSnow said:
That's weird. Doesn't seem like it was the warmest year here. We didn't hit 90 as much as last year did all summer, but maybe it was because of the blowtorch of late winter earlier this year.
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Yeah I agree. This past summer wasn't that bad and this fall wasn't that warm either. I'm pretty sure 2016 was significantly warmer than 2017, or at least it felt that way to me.
 
I don't mind a warm Christmas as long as it's dry. I'd like to have snow, but warm and dry or cold and dry is better than rain.

Things look interesting between Christmas and the first of the new year. Just have to take the pattern and the models one day at a time now. The models have been all over the place, so really nothing is set in stone. And the weather here can change drastically in a week's time in winter, so I wouldn't worry about a warm up. We've seen it 70 here one day and a big snow storm a week later.
 
ForsythSnow said:
That's weird. Doesn't seem like it was the warmest year here. We didn't hit 90 as much as last year did all summer, but maybe it was because of the blowtorch of late winter earlier this year.
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The summer was slightly below average across the TN and Mississippi Valleys but the JFM period of last winter was record or near-record warm, the spring was well above to near record warm esp in the Carolinas, and the fall was above average....
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Maybe it's just me, but last year as a whole seemed warmer than this year.
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The map Webber posted just fills in the entire state. Here is a higher resolution map for pretty much the same time period. Notice North Georgia looks way less extreme than south.
january-november-2017-us-average-temperature-percentiles-map.png
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Yeah I agree. This past summer wasn't that bad and this fall wasn't that warm either. I'm pretty sure 2016 was significantly warmer than 2017, or at least it felt that way to me.
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Both the summer and fall of 2016 were well inside the top 5 warmest on record, and the spring was solidly above average... It's comparable to this year for sure and in some areas it's a tad cooler but overall this year is warmer by the skin of our teeth for many
 
I looked at Atlanta's temps from Jan-Nov 2016 and Jan-Nov 2017 and Atlanta was about 1/2 degree cooler this year than last year.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Both the summer and fall of 2016 were well inside the top 5 warmest on record, and the spring was solidly above average... It's comparable to this year for sure and in some areas it's a tad cooler but overall this year is warmer by the skin of our teeth for many
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You can probably blame last winter. Last Jan and Feb were both +9 in Atlanta. So I imagine for most areas the largest anomalies were in the winter months.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The map Webber posted just fills in the entire state. Here is a higher resolution map for pretty much the same time period. Notice North Georgia looks way less extreme than south.
january-november-2017-us-average-temperature-percentiles-map.png
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It's interesting that most of the record warmest areas were in the southern half of the US. I wonder why that is ?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Atlanta is slightly cooler this year, but last year was record warmest for them, this year, southeast GA is record warmest while Atlanta is a smidge cooler
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It looks like the nation as a whole may be a little cooler this year ? It looks like more areas in the "above average" category. I don't see any areas in the "above average" category last year.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
It looks like the nation as a whole may be a little cooler this year ? It looks like more areas in the "above average" category. I don't see any areas in the "above average" category last year.
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It's cooler but not by very much. This January-November is the 3rd warmest on record only behind last year and 2012.
Screen Shot 2017-12-18 at 10.55.57 AM.png
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Good news is atleast in NC GSO and espeacilly RDU seem to have turned the corner. Hopefully trend continues

RDU was BN November and currently -2.2 for December. FACT Rdu has a streak of 11 straight days at or below normal. Might squeeze out number 12 today,but it's gonna end most likely.
 
If I remember correctly the first half of 2012 was the warmest part of that year. I remember March 2012 seemed like it felt like May or June.
 
I for one would certainly not take above normal temperatures every year because eventually it will catch up with you as it progressively has done so over the course of the 20th & 21st centuries as you'd expect from the canonical Law of Averages...
Snowstorms like these put the recent event to shame esp wrt the background climatology of where they occurred...
Screen Shot 2017-12-18 at 11.09.59 AM.png
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Christmas Eve and Day, still have an interesting look on the NW fringe. Don't think it's cold chasing moisture, looks like some overrunning to me
 
Tarheel1 said:
Christmas Eve and Day, still have an interesting look on the NW fringe. Don't think it's cold chasing moisture, looks like some overrunning to me
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Yes, that's overrunning. There is a 2nd system, it's elongated and embedded just like the last winter storm.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Florida, Georgia, South & North Carolina are currently on pace for their warmest year on record. Most other states in the southern US aren't far behind, and with the exception of Arkansas and Oklahoma, every state is either warmest or top 5 warmest through November...
View attachment 2094
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I work outside and this summer was actually very pleasant in SC. I would have never guessed we were on pace for this. Hmm
 
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