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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

6z gfs still brings me the strip of snow on Christmas day, hey ill take whatever lol. Anyways, thats the area that needs to be watch as the low is pretty far south. NW trend would be good and on the same page as the Euro.. Someone in the SE could have a white Christmas
 
Man, that 384 6z GFS ice storm in the CAD region of the Carolinas, would be catastrophic!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Man, that 384 6z GFS ice storm in the CAD region of the Carolinas, would be catastrophic!
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Yikes! Temps in the teens in NC and low 20s in the upstate for this event! Classic high placement! Textbook ice/snow storm, even down to GA! Too bad it's day 15 on GFS!
 
Last night's 0z, and this morning's 6z of the GFS reminds me of how the last winter storm started on the models. It's elongated and a low pressure is embedded through Christmas eve into Christmas day.
 
whatalife said:
06z GEFS is very active.


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Definitely is. Fun and games could happen just after Christmas through the end of the run Jan 2. Hopefully we can all get in on the action. Hopefully @Storm5 can give us a detailed EPS report when he wakes up!
 
Wow the EPS is much improved .
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Well, it now looks like the SER will be beaten down. It comes down to timing on when. It happens to seem more important for many since the front is coming through right around Christmas. Let's see what the models say today.
 
packfan98 said:
Well, it now looks like the SER will be beaten down. It comes down to timing on when. It happens to seem more important for many since the front is coming through right around Christmas. Let's see what the models say today.
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Yeah the idea of a strengthening SER during christmas week is all but gone at this point .
 
Even though the 00z is warmer, it’s an improvement over the 12z yesterday as the height change over the east coast is trending favorably (toward a weaker SE ridge) as depicted here. The EPS is an obvious trend in the right direction but I expect the next few runs of the Op to trend toward the EPS. With this much cold available and 7 days left, you can’t discount a complete breakdown of the SE ridge and a cold Christmas.

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Thanks @Jon! Hopefully things are about to become more active for many of us starting next week. I always look forward to reading your posts. By the way, that was me who was commenting on your twitter posts.
 
packfan98 said:
Definitely is. Fun and games could happen just after Christmas through the end of the run Jan 2. Hopefully we can all get in on the action. Hopefully @Storm5 can give us a detailed EPS report when he wakes up!
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I wouldn’t let my guard down on someone in the SE having fun and games on Christmas just yet. Stay a long shot but who knows.


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deltadog03 said:
Model madness continues I see
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Yeah no doubt, although at least the models were converging on a general solution with the arctic air mass, it is just a matter of its timing still. I just hope we keep seeing a large, broad based continental air mass, those often give us our best, widespread events, especially overrunning
 
Quite crazy the EPS range for temps in Atlanta is larger for Christmas than it is for a two to three days after, and there is the least consistency of all the days seeing most members lie between the high 60s and mid to upper 40s.
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After December 23 the GFS hardly gets me above freezing through the end of run. I don't think cold air is going to be a problem here.
 
Not sure if this was mentioned, but does something seem off about the Euro at 240 and the two frames before it? It has multiple high pressures, and strong ones too, across the entire northern US that seems to start at 192 and get worse.
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GaWx said:
Webb, do these colder 0Z runs have anything to do with any changes with 97L??
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Bump for Webb. The overall guidance at 0Z was colder including the EPS. Was it 97L related? Is 97L likely to deveiop? Thanks.
 
GaWx said:
Bump for Webb. The overall guidance at 0Z was colder including the EPS. Was it 97L related? Is 97L likely to deveiop? Thanks.
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I think somewhere yesterday , Webb said it was looking very weak on the models now!?
 
GaWx said:
Bump for Webb. The overall guidance at 0Z was colder including the EPS. Was it 97L related? Is 97L likely to deveiop? Thanks.
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The vortex over northeastern Eurasia intensified this run in the short-medium range which intensified the Pacific jet just a tad, shifted the anticyclonic wave break and potential vorticity streamer further east and thus the entire anomalous wave pattern shifted east a tad and intensified over North America which was modestly more favorable for the SE US. Most guidance still doesnt develop 97W until it reaches the South China Sea (if at all), and squash it into Vietnam and Cambodia... Such a track configuration for WP typhoons normally teleconnects to ridging in the eastern US which will ring true leading up to and around Christmas...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yea, the GFS has a bad -AO bias in the longer term...
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Did I forget to mention the GFS's -WPO & -EPO biases too? Actual forecasts even several days out have been verifying considerably more positive, thus take what this model says especially beyond Christmas with an entire mine of salt and consider its solution a cool outlier...
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Webberweather53 said:
Did I forget to mention the GFS's -WPO & -EPO biases too? Actual forecasts even several days out have been verifying considerably more positive, thus take what this model says especially beyond Christmas with an entire mine of salt and consider its solution a cool outlier...
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What about the Euro? What’s its biases towards the -WPO and -EPO
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whatalife said:
What about the Euro? What’s its biases towards the -WPO and -EPO
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The Euro's biases esp with the EPO haven't been nearly as one-sided as the GFS, it was verifying more positive than forecast a week or so ago but recently has been more negative than anticipated, the GFS has been perpetually way too negative w/ the EPO & WPO...
 
Here's the GFS's temperature bias accumulated over the past month out to only 168 hours. Even at this range the model has been verifying way too cold vs reality here in the east-central US... The verification is likely much worse beyond 168 hr.
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Florida, Georgia, South & North Carolina are currently on pace for their warmest year on record. Most other states in the southern US aren't far behind, and with the exception of Arkansas and Oklahoma, every state is either warmest or top 5 warmest through November...
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Webberweather53 said:
Florida, Georgia, South & North Carolina are currently on pace for their warmest year on record. Most other states in the southern US aren't far behind, and with the exception of Arkansas and Oklahoma, every state is either warmest or top 5 warmest through November...
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That's weird. Doesn't seem like it was the warmest year here. We didn't hit 90 as much as last year did all summer, but maybe it was because of the blowtorch of late winter earlier this year.
 
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