• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Tarheel1 said:
Sounds like there's a little hurt and pain and anguish , in this post!? Have you experienced being on the wrong side of the 850 and 725 mb lines lately!?
Click to expand...

No never, never!
 
Honestly with how badly wrong the goofus was with the Friday storm, next Friday's is going to need to be watched by everything but Goofy and the storm around Christmas will need to be earmarked for when it gets into the 240 hour range with other models.

And I hate saying this, as I'll keep looking at the GFS anyway, loool.
 
Brent said:
Yeah im still not over the friday storm yet lol

Storms missing to the south are always way worse
Click to expand...
I know, and to be so close was just Mother Nature slapping me in the face, I stayed up all night watching the radar thinking it was moving way north, saw that dark greens moving fast my way, was only 80 miles away then just hit a wall. I think there will be a storm at Christmas, but could be St. Louis or could be down to Cuba this far out. Think it will be one of those sharp cut off storms also (no scientific reasoning at all), remember 1999 or something it was 70 in Tupelo and I promise 50 miles to the north, ice and snow. Memphis was getting pounded for 2 days and it was 70 here whole time, never seen such a sharp cut off in my life, I worked 19 miles northwest of here and it was 45 and rain but that shows how sharply it changed. Whole point is I think if there is a Christmas storm will be that way.
 
25188192_10209705226818540_1046929859_n.png
 
Stormlover said:
25188192_10209705226818540_1046929859_n.png
Click to expand...

The pattern makes it worth monitoring (our guy Larry said the pattern is going to change back again around Christmas time and sometimes we see big storms with pattern changes), but it's a period that's just going to have to be earmarked for a while as it's not worth watching on a model that can be so badly wrong in the GFS.
 
Usmeagle2005 said:
I know, and to be so close was just Mother Nature slapping me in the face, I stayed up all night watching the radar thinking it was moving way north, saw that dark greens moving fast my way, was only 80 miles away then just hit a wall. I think there will be a storm at Christmas, but could be St. Louis or could be down to Cuba this far out. Think it will be one of those sharp cut off storms also (no scientific reasoning at all), remember 1999 or something it was 70 in Tupelo and I promise 50 miles to the north, ice and snow. Memphis was getting pounded for 2 days and it was 70 here whole time, never seen such a sharp cut off in my life, I worked 19 miles northwest of here and it was 45 and rain but that shows how sharply it changed. Whole point is I think if there is a Christmas storm will be that way.
Click to expand...

Always seems to be a sharp cutoff i remember many in alabama especially to the north

I hope we all get our storm this year i just can't believe i missed such a huge historic storm lol

And yes the Christmas timeframe definitely has my interest
 
deltadog03 said:
I will 2nd what had been said before we are about to move into a much better MJO phase and combine that with a great upper pattern, could be an amazing shot of cold and stormy wx
Click to expand...
Might as well hope for another storm, or even shoot for two! Hope everyone scores from this pattern!
 
Man I got low to mid 60s in my forecast from the 18th on to about the 23rd!? Guess that's the re load period!?
 
B42CE381-8742-4FA1-9195-6498FAA9ADEB.png Latest euro (12z) sure wants to throwback some precipitation inland.. much farther north than previous runs.. also, UK is onto this idea.. Gfs showing its suppression bias.
 
Storm5 said:
Fwiw the GEFS wants nothing to do with any possible system next weekend . It is however excited about the period around Christmas
Click to expand...
The next great one , is only 13-15 days away! :(
 
I can almost guarantee you that if we don't have more high latitude blocking, this will trend NW as we approach verification time. Only problem is that the cold air will retreat NW as well. As many have already said, this one has some similarities with the past event. Only this time, we will have already laid the foundation of cold air down. This is an important step in getting a good winter weather event. Question is how far NW does it get, and how much cold air will still be available to tap? I am going to pay more attention to the NAVGEM, simply because it has the hot hand right now.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol another monster jet streak, this time displaced further south near the mid-Atlantic. Seeing a 185 kt jet streak this far south over VA at day 5 is unheard of
View attachment 1984
Click to expand...
Hmmm. That seems quite interesting to have another one. Could we technically see a repeat of this storm that just happened in either the exact same spot or south of the last track because of this seeing another low pressure and system is possible?
 
ForsythSnow said:
Hmmm. That seems quite interesting to have another one. Could we technically see a repeat of this storm that just happened in either the exact same spot or south of the last track because of this seeing another low pressure and system is possible?
Click to expand...

Yeah the jet entrance region in this case is displaced a few hundred miles further to the south & east vs the last event so intuitively that does imply that the best ascent and cyclonic vorticity advection would also be pushed SE of the last storm which could implicate the Carolinas more so here but we still have a long ways to go and timing as well as second order feedbacks and momentum fluxes between the storm, its concomitant latent heating and the jet core will also matters. Bears watching esp given how rare it is to see jet streaks this strong in such close proximity to the southeastern US
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top