• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

The EPS continues to advertise a good pattern going into Christmas week post D10.
c85b1ac209605d22b51c4da88777e503.jpg


Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 
Also as Tennesseestorm said the mjo is going into the favorable phases into the Christmas week and possible rest of December. With the PNA going positive after dropping neutral briefly, AO going back negative after it relaxes some, NAO maintaining a neutral state, and Larry's stats on how those telleconnections correlate to big Southeast winter storms (specifically +PNA/-AO). The future looks great.
a84af01112f950a3e1a36a2f7d75ec5e.gif
794d56644a0e5f3f5c94ae1e416cd691.jpg


Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 said:
Larry do you have any numbers on back to back winter storms in early December for the southeast? I'd assume there are very few if any
Click to expand...

Charlie,
Please don't shoot the messenger, but as you suspect since early Dec SE winter storms are rare, I don't know of any and would likely know at least about much of GA, especially the ATL area, going back to 1879 if they occurred. The closest thing I can find to this is the several day long three pronged Dec. of 1886 event. But I think of that as one very duration storm even though it had breaks. I may post about Dec of 1886 for N GA in a separate thread later. Now if we were to go later in the month (say mid to late), then Decembers like 1935 and 1963 and possibly 1917 could at least be discussed, especially in NC. I hope Webb sees this because I'd like to know the answer for the Carolinas, especially NC.
 
This is a good looking shot late week coming up for my area. I'll take my chances with this for mid December and be happy to pull another rabit out of the hat. Pay close attn to the ukie and see how consistent it is with itself rus to run.

Whole lot better cold air to work with than the previous storm.
 
WeatherLC said:
Any chance for zr in this coming pattern?
Click to expand...

I'm going crosseyed looking at the various runs, but if the low is too close to the coast and we have a high pressure anchoring in overhead, yes. The air would be too warm at say, 850mb for lots of areas, but the shallow mass of cold air being pushed down at the ground level per a high would cause a dicey ice situation.

Anyways, some of these model runs with the low hugging the Gulf/SE coast, is a bad look for lots of areas in the deep South. Add to that the NW trend, and it's a lot worse for people outside TN, Mountains.
 
GaWx said:
I don't think the ATL area is overdue as ATL just had a moderate ice storm last January when Greensboro got that big snow. Also, 2/2014 sure was a very bad one that hit south and east metro ATL hard including Tony and lead to the Eisenhower tree at Augusta National being taken down. Major ZRs occur in the ATL area about once every 4 years on average.

That being said, I count as many as 8 winters that had BOTH major ZR and major SN/IP in ATL since 1879 if I were to include the 2/2014 as an all in one storm as it had both major ZR and major SN/IP in south metro. So, odds may not be as low as one might think as these winters have occurred about once every 17 there. Before, 2014, the last ones were in 1978-1979,1961-2, and 1959-60.
Click to expand...
No, no, no, lol. I'd much rather have zippo than zr!! I'd even rather get screwed like this recent event, than get zr :) Even to include the 36 hour wait to get powder on the roofs. Much better than zr. In fact, I think, because of my extreme ill treatment, I need to get a 4 inch sleet in here, just to balance the score, lol. T
 
GaWx said:
Charlie,
Please don't shoot the messenger, but as you suspect since early Dec SE winter storms are rare, I don't know of any and would likely know at least about much of GA, especially the ATL area, going back to 1879 if they occurred. The closest thing I can find to this is the several day long three pronged Dec. of 1886 event. But I think of that as one very duration storm even though it had breaks. I may post about Dec of 1886 for N GA in a separate thread later. Now if we were to go later in the month (say mid to late), then Decembers like 1935 and 1963 and possibly 1917 could at least be discussed, especially in NC. I hope Webb sees this because I'd like to know the answer for the Carolinas, especially NC.
Click to expand...

Including trace events in the east-central part of the state, I've been able to pick up on multiple winter storms here in central NC in the first half of December in 1895, 1903, 1915, 1934, 1958, 1963, 1966, 1968, 1989, & 2010...
 
ForsythSnow said:
What would come of a typical NW trend if this keeps showing up? Is this too far NW to start with or could this bring the goods to NC and SC?
Click to expand...

It certainly could, it also depends on the systems in front of it. NWP tends to shear out systems in the southern branch and underestimates the mid-level warm nose and broad, isentropic upglide that often characterizes overrunning in the southeastern US (which is directly related to the extent and intensity of the precipitation shield and secondary ageostrophic frontal circulation to the NW of the storm because the stronger warm nose leads to more frontogenesis on the NW side of the storm which is often amassed in an cP regime, this creates more lift further northwest, thus the storm appears to move NW although in reality the parent low track is similar.) The course vertical resolution of NWP models (50 hPa) & our sparse upper air observational network are factors that are well within our control and are likely significantly contributing to this inherent suppressed bias in NWP during this type of setup. In our case, most of the lift was generated by upper level divergence associated w/ a record breaking upper level jet in the northeastern US to the north of the storm where we have few upper air observations...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Including trace events in the east-central part of the state, I've been able to pick up on multiple winter storms here in central NC in the first half of December in 1895, 1903, 1915, 1934, 1958, 1963, 1966, 1968, 1989, & 2010...
Click to expand...

Thanks! To clarify, I'm not including trace events in ATL. And I'm only looking early in Dec. Even if I went through 12/15, it wouldn't add much, if any (excluding traces). Regardless, I'd expect many more in NC than ATL of course.
 
GaWx said:
Thanks! To clarify, I'm not including trace events in ATL. Regardless, I'd expect many more in NC than ATL. And I'm only looking early in Dec.
Click to expand...

Sure thing! It's not clear to me why you'd only limit yourself to the first several days or so of December because this storm (if it materializes) wouldn't be observed until the 15th or so at the earliest, it probably would be more applicable to extend your range a bit. It also would be worth while to expand your research to outside the Atlanta metro area perhaps to encompass all of north-central Georgia, or maybe even look to neighboring states because the real question many are looking to answer on this forum is how frequent have we seen multiple winter storms affect a significant proportion of the board in the first half of the month? Limiting your findings to one point (which often can completely miss out or poorly represent the spatial coverage and intensity of snowfall in the southeastern US). may not give the most accurate picture of reality...
 
Tarheel1 said:
Cold is there, precip looks a little anemic!
Click to expand...
Isnt this how the last storm started? Seems like this was the same setup as this last one, with cold air coming into the mix. The low really didnt starting showing on the models until at least couple days before. I wouldn't be surprise if it trended NW again and bring some more wintry weather for the deep south.
 
accu35 said:
Isnt this how the last storm started? Seems like this was the same setup as this last one, with cold air coming into the mix. The low really didnt starting showing on the models until at least couple days before. I wouldn't be surprise if it trended NW again and bring some more wintry weather for the deep south.
Click to expand...
And the fun would continue.
 
accu35 said:
Isnt this how the last storm started? Seems like this was the same setup as this last one, with cold air coming into the mix. The low really didnt starting showing on the models until at least couple days before. I wouldn't be surprise if it trended NW again and bring some more wintry weather for the deep south.
Click to expand...
If that becomes the case, I hope more can score than last time. If we see snow here again even this winter, that would be a huge bonus.
 
It is crazy how similar this looks to the last storm. Let’s keep the good vibes going!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Sure thing! It's not clear to me why you'd only limit yourself to the first several days or so of December because this storm (if it materializes) wouldn't be observed until the 15th or so at the earliest, it probably would be more applicable to extend your range a bit. It also would be worth while to expand your research to outside the Atlanta metro area perhaps to encompass all of north-central Georgia, or maybe even look to neighboring states because the real question many are looking to answer on this forum is how frequent have we seen multiple winter storms affect a significant proportion of the board in the first half of the month? Limiting your findings to one point (which often can completely miss out or poorly represent the spatial coverage and intensity of snowfall in the southeastern US). may not give the most accurate picture of reality...
Click to expand...

I agree about your point about going through 12/15 though I still don't expect to find much at ATL as I was already peaking into there somewhat. The problem with outside ATL metro is that I don't have nearly as much of that though I did happen to find some for other parts of north and central GA as I was doing the ATL research (example: the great Dec 1886 storm) and I separately have found a lot for the SAV/CHS areas. That's why I'm glad you added your imput about the Carolinas. Much of my research came from ATL newspapers found at the ATL library and that, alone, took a very long time to gather. I don't at all disagree about looking to get more from outside ATL but I simply don't have it and am not currently in a position to attain it.
 
Let's try to reel another in.

Let's say 12/8/17 was our 4/15/11, hope we can get the snow version of 4/27/11 (that didn't sound bad did it?).
 
ForsythSnow said:
If that becomes the case, I hope more can score than last time. If we see snow here again even this winter, that would be a huge bonus.
Click to expand...
I agree, its seems every gfs run the precip feild keep creeping NW a little. Its really something to watch. Plus Euro and other models has the low toward coast.
 
Arcc said:
The last three GFS runs have increased the speed of the S/W over Mexico.
Click to expand...
Is that good? Because it gets here sooner and catches the cold air?? Is there a NS energy we need to watch!? What tilt are we wAnting to score wintry, positive, negative, or neutral?
 
Tarheel1 said:
Is that good? Because it gets here sooner and catches the cold air?? Is there a NS energy we need to watch!? What tilt are we wAnting to score wintry, positive, negative, or neutral?
Click to expand...
If you're looking for snow, you want it neutral, but not too neutral. More like positive or negative, but not too positive or negative. And you want the shortwave faster or slower and to dive in at the right angle, but not too right. It should be slightly obtuse or acute. Get all that just right and it might snow 25 miles north of you and me.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Is that good? Because it gets here sooner and catches the cold air?? Is there a NS energy we need to watch!? What tilt are we wAnting to score wintry, positive, negative, or neutral?
Click to expand...

I thought it was gonna eventually eject it, it didn't.
 
Rain Cold said:
If you're looking for snow, you want it neutral, but not too neutral. More like positive or negative, but not too positive or negative. And you want the shortwave faster or slower and to dive in at the right angle, but not too right. It should be slightly obtuse or acute. Get all that just right and it might snow 25 miles north of you and me.
Click to expand...
Sounds like there's a little hurt and pain and anguish , in this post!? Have you experienced being on the wrong side of the 850 and 725 mb lines lately!?
 
In regards of next weekends interest, i would love to see if the gefs members draw this closer North.
 
Hell, even the 18th storm is somewhat closer for NC! That Christmas miracle storm, just looks wonky! I mean 3-4 days of precip that barely moves and fluctuates from rain to ice to snow on the N edges!? But the 1030 high over NY, gives me hope for a good CAD
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top