• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

WeatherWatch said:
Well, this is crazy...
If that verified, some places would be required to have ice skates.
c4c30caecc78c4989ba206c850982093.gif
Click to expand...
We are over due with a ice storm in the SE. what’s the odds of a huge snow storm followed by a huge ice storm. This winter is getting fun. Hope it stays.
 
NoSnowATL said:
We are over due with a ice storm in the SE. what’s the odds of a huge snow storm followed by a huge ice storm. This winter is getting fun. Hope it stays.
Click to expand...
That is a "weird look" for ice here.. Typical has true CAD with overrun not a "Bermuda High" ridge look... which tends to warm the surface layer too much....
 
Lol! Looking at 15 day GFS
 
SD said:
Anyone watching this bills game? I'd love to see snow like that

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
You didn't see those rates with the death band yesterday!? :)
 
You know the Navgem did not do that bad with the last event...looks similar to the 12Z Ukie.

nav_120.png

nav132.png
 
Anyone got map from Euro? Looks interesting next weekend
 
im interested for sure around christmas time.... plenty artic air lurking north of us... 12zgfs pops up a se ridge off the eastern florida coast... bit weak for now.... but ample moisture to work with.... still affraid someone is going get nailed with a big ice event.... during timeframe... especially upper south.... maybe my area o my. lol
 
accu35 said:
ecmwf_T850_seus_6.png
Click to expand...
That's some borderline cold right there! I think Euro had some warmer runs than other models with the last event! Iffy temps and moisture, hard to get excited yet! Need some good ensemble support!
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Ya I can’t get excited for this until I see more cold air support
Click to expand...

There was actually no cold air support for this past storm in a general sense, all the cold air was diabatically driven by melting hydrometeors, it's pretty obvious this was the case when there was no snow cover to be seen south of the Canadian border.
This storm will probably have more cold air to work with especially over the Carolinas w/ the snow cover on the eastern seaboard extending down into VA and western NC by day 5, with some even lingering in shady areas of the North GA mountains.
nsm_depth_2017120705_National.jpg
Screen Shot 2017-12-10 at 1.09.26 PM.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
There was actually no cold air support for this past storm in a general sense, all the cold air was diabatically driven by melting hydrometeors, it's pretty obvious this was the case when there was no snow cover to be seen south of the Canadian border.
This storm will probably have more cold air to work with especially over the Carolinas w/ the snow cover on the eastern seaboard extending down into VA and western NC by day 5, with some even lingering in shady areas of the North GA mountains.
View attachment 1978
View attachment 1979
Click to expand...

Exactly. One can easily see how much cold air was associated with this recent storm with how quickly everything has warmed...already in the 50s again. This was not a long lasting cold, nor was there an existing cold air in the region prior so in a lot of ways, we "threaded the needle" this weekend. I do find it hard to see it happening two weekends in a row,but the set up definitely needs to be watched...could easily see a decent snow event for parts of the Carolinas. I like their chances more than the areas that got decimated this weekend.
 
Tarheel1 said:
That's some borderline cold right there! I think Euro had some warmer runs than other models with the last event! Iffy temps and moisture, hard to get excited yet! Need some good ensemble support!
Click to expand...

The Euro was one of the colder models in NC, the GFS, CMC, et al showed little-no snow even in the northwestern part of the state until the last second when it was already pretty obvious we were going to see snow there
 
My mother, may she rest in peace, always admonished not to say anything if it can't be said nicely; ergo, holding back on commenting about the models today, at least for way down south (except the PNA prog, which is the narrow beam of light ...) ... :confused:
 
NoSnowATL said:
We are over due with a ice storm in the SE. what’s the odds of a huge snow storm followed by a huge ice storm. This winter is getting fun. Hope it stays.
Click to expand...

I don't think the ATL area is overdue as ATL just had a moderate ice storm last January when Greensboro got that big snow. Also, 2/2014 sure was a very bad one that hit south and east metro ATL hard including Tony and lead to the Eisenhower tree at Augusta National being taken down. Major ZRs occur in the ATL area about once every 4 years on average.

That being said, I count as many as 8 winters that had BOTH major ZR and major SN/IP in ATL since 1879 if I were to include the 2/2014 as an all in one storm as it had both major ZR and major SN/IP in south metro. So, odds may not be as low as one might think as these winters have occurred about once every 17 there. Before, 2014, the last ones were in 1978-1979,1961-2, and 1959-60.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
I don't think the ATL area is overdue as ATL just had a moderate ice storm last January when Greensboro got that big snow. Also, 2/2014 sure was a very bad one that hit south and east metro ATL hard including Tony and lead to the Eisenhower tree at Augusta National being taken down. Major ZRs occur in the ATL area about once every 4 years on average.

That being said, I count as many as 8 winters that had BOTH major ZR and major SN/IP in ATL since 1879 if I were to include the 2/2014 as an all in one storm as it had both major ZR and major SN/IP in south metro. So, odds may not be as low as one might think as these winters have occurred about once every 17 there. Before, 2014, the last ones were in 1978-1979,1961-2, and 1959-60.
Click to expand...
2/16/16 was a significant zr event for the northeast burbs in cad favored zones
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top