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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

GaWx said:
The 12Z GEFS appears to bring the AO back down again late in the run and more than does the 0Z GEFS fwiw. Analogs favor it coming back down. So we'll see.
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That's good to hear. I sure hope we can score big at some point and see the PNA rebound as well.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z GEFS appears to bring the AO back down again late in the run and more than does the 0Z GEFS fwiw. Analogs favor it coming back down. So we'll see.
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If we get a repeating pattern, with cold shots and some blocking.. up until mid Jan. I read something you said about the rest of Jan being normal. Well, we get some good winter weather being normal :) I'll take repeated shots of normal Jan weather in Dec, then take the normal Jan weather after that, lol. This is shaping up alright! If I can get something over the next few day from of being in the sweet spot for so long, this could be a banner year with two or three shots early, then normal after that, lol. T
 
Even the EPS, which has been and still is going more zonal than the GEFS late in the 6-10, now has a restrengthening Alaskan ridge as we get later into the 11-15. As a result, there is at hour 360 (on 12/22) an impressively strong signal for so far out in time of a strong Arctic high (1032 mb is quite strong for an ensemble of 50 members 15 days out) accompanied by 850s as cold as -26 C along the western shore of Hudson Bay moving southward toward the US as the -AO begins to restrengthen. What's extra notable about this is that this -26 C 850
MB air, which first shows up as sub -24 C 850s as early as 12/20 further north, is the coldest of any on the entire run in Canada and appears to
fed by a cross polar upper flow.

I'm paying extra close attention to this because analogs have insisted on a solid cold E US Dec with accompanying solid and persistent -AO as opposed to a Dec that is cold for only a 10 or so day period and then just craps out late. This run, along with the 12Z GEFS and GEPS, are saying cold will be back to start dominating much of the US starting in about 2 weeks and it could easily be even colder than what will occur over the next 10 days. So, any break in the current cold pattern, which is common, regardless, may very well be shortlived. The model runs will likely waver back and forth. But stay tuned as the analogs and now the models again are saying look out late month.
 
GaWx said:
Even the EPS, which has been and still is going more zonal than the GEFS late in the 6-10, now has a restrengthening Alaskan ridge as we get later into the 11-15. As a result, there is at hour 360 (on 12/22) an impressively strong signal for so far out in time of a strong Arctic high (1032 mb is quite strong for an ensemble of 50 members 15 days out) accompanied by 850s as cold as -26 C along the western shore of Hudson Bay moving southward toward the US as the -AO begins to restrengthen. What's extra notable about this is that this -26 C 850
MB air, which first shows up as sub -24 C 850s as early as 12/20 further north, is the coldest of any on the entire run in Canada and appears to
fed by a cross polar upper flow.

I'm paying extra close attention to this because analogs have insisted on a solid cold E US Dec with accompanying solid and persistent -AO as opposed to a Dec that is cold for only a 10 or so day period and then just craps out late. This run, along with the 12Z GEFS and GEPS, are saying cold will be back to start dominating much of the US starting in about 2 weeks and it could easily be even colder than what will occur over the next 10 days. So, any break in the current cold pattern, which is common, regardless, may very well be shortlived. The model runs will likely waver back and forth. But stay tuned as the analogs and now the models again are saying look out late month.
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Great post, Larry! Was noticing much the same, and looking at the PNA which seems like it wants to stay on top of +; maybe we'll all get a nice treat from Santa, but, and as you say, stay tuned, it's a ways out there!
Again, great post!
Phil
 
Welcome some thoughts on the weeklies. I wasn’t overly impressed with them after about day 10...


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whatalife said:
Welcome some thoughts on the weeklies. I wasn’t overly impressed with them after about day 10...


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Euro weeklies pretty much put an end to winter after early January and the classical NINA torching begins by mid month. Eventually, this background state will catch up w/ us because Januarys usually arent cold here in a NINA, Decembers can be and Februarys are rarely near normal
 
Webberweather53 said:
Euro weeklies pretty much put an end to winter after early January and the classical NINA torching begins by mid month. Eventually, this background state will catch up w/ us because Januarys usually arent cold here in a NINA, Decembers can be and Februarys are rarely near normal
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I wasn't impressed either and, as you said, this is what would be expected in La Niña (I'm thinking cold til around Jan 15th and then mainly mild in the SE from then on though places like the Midwest would likely remain cold). If we can just remain cold dominated through near 1/15, I'll be a very satisfied camper after the last two mainly nonwinters.

However, two caveats:
1. The weeklies as you know are not at all dependable and they change a lot from run to run since all it is is a 45 day long EPS and we know that just the 11-15 can be unstable/unreliable. So, Monday's run could be wildly different.

2. The -AO, which I believe is more predictable than the midlatitudes, is still pretty stout just about all of the way to the end of the run. This is even stronger on the 12Z CFSv2. AO/QBO/ENSO analogs favor a rather strong
-AO continuing through 12/31 and even a decent -AO through at least the 1st half of Jan (after that a crapshoot). So, this may be our ace in the hole to keep it cold at least through Jan 15th.
 
Sadly, I haven't seen much if any fantasy storms on the GFS in recent days. This does not bode well through Christmas. What happened to the 13-16th time-frame!
 
yeah what happened to the storm next weekend?

Looks like we're going back to a boring pattern here and no real cold
 
The pattern relaxes toward the end of tonight's Gfs, but one thing I noticed was Western/Central Canada gets much colder... if this current cold pattern returns, early Jan could be interesting. (yeah, I'm kind of punting until then, lol)
 
Well lets hope that something is going to sneak in before the +PNA breaks down that I've been looking at on modeling. I get that we can get a reload, but as bad as Winter has been in recent years (especially here), I can't get too hopeful about it. It's like losing control of a golden egg and fumbling it off a roof top to lose the -NAO/+PNA combo before scoring.
 
Shawn said:
Well lets hope that something is going to sneak in before the +PNA breaks down that I've been looking at on modeling. I get that we can get a reload, but as bad as Winter has been in recent years (especially here), I can't get too hopeful about it. It's like losing control of a golden egg and fumbling it off a roof top to lose the -NAO/+PNA combo before scoring.
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yeah I'm still concerned this could be like last winter and the pattern goes to the dumps in January... Dallas is just now ending a record freeze less streak that began on January 9th 2017 lol
 
GaWx said:
Even the EPS, which has been and still is going more zonal than the GEFS late in the 6-10, now has a restrengthening Alaskan ridge as we get later into the 11-15. As a result, there is at hour 360 (on 12/22) an impressively strong signal for so far out in time of a strong Arctic high (1032 mb is quite strong for an ensemble of 50 members 15 days out) accompanied by 850s as cold as -26 C along the western shore of Hudson Bay moving southward toward the US as the -AO begins to restrengthen. What's extra notable about this is that this -26 C 850
MB air, which first shows up as sub -24 C 850s as early as 12/20 further north, is the coldest of any on the entire run in Canada and appears to
fed by a cross polar upper flow.

I'm paying extra close attention to this because analogs have insisted on a solid cold E US Dec with accompanying solid and persistent -AO as opposed to a Dec that is cold for only a 10 or so day period and then just craps out late. This run, along with the 12Z GEFS and GEPS, are saying cold will be back to start dominating much of the US starting in about 2 weeks and it could easily be even colder than what will occur over the next 10 days. So, any break in the current cold pattern, which is common, regardless, may very well be shortlived. The model runs will likely waver back and forth. But stay tuned as the analogs and now the models again are saying look out late month.
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Well, what do you know. Not only is the 0Z EPS backing up the above referenced 12Z EPS change back to a cold pattern, but it is even more emphatic! Make no mistake about it that it is reestablishing a very strong Alaskan/far E Pac ridge, which gets started around 12/20 and is quite strong by the end of the run. As a result of this, there's cross polar flow at the end of the run and the coldest air on the planet anomalywise by far covering nearly all of Canada and moving into the N Rockies/Plains as well as the upper MW on 12/22. There's also a restrengtheing of the -AO. There is once again a 1032 mb high in NW Canada. Remember that this is hour 360 of a 50 member ensemble run showing this strong of a high. It is then poised to move much further down into the US with eyes quite possibly on the SE US by no later than Christmas. I'm officially repumped like I was in late Nov in advance of the current cold.
 
yeah, if this pattern more or less repeats, we'll have dead of winter climatology, source region cold, and more ample snowpack working in our favor.. This winter really feels like it wants to be a slightly warmer, but still crazy and snowy repeat of 2010-11. IF I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Sue me.
 
Welcome to the pattern change: *CHA NOWData*

2017-12-01 66 46 56.0 10.0 9 0 0.00 0.0 0
2017-12-02 67 43 55.0 9.3 10 0 0.00 0.0 0
2017-12-03 66 38 52.0 6.6 13 0 0.00 0.0 0
2017-12-04 66 39 52.5 7.4 12 0 0.00 0.0 0
2017-12-05 60 42 51.0 6.2 14 0 0.86 0.0 0
2017-12-06 46 37 41.5 -3.0 23 0 0.00 0.0 0

It's only Day 1, folks....
 
People put WAY to much faith in those hourly model runs. The 23 hour hrrr is like the 360 hour GFS...
 
GaWx said:
Well, what do you know. Not only is the 0Z EPS backing up the above referenced 12Z EPS change back to a cold pattern, but it is even more emphatic! Make no mistake about it that it is reestablishing a very strong Alaskan/far E Pac ridge, which gets started around 12/20 and is quite strong by the end of the run. As a result of this, there's cross polar flow at the end of the run and the coldest air on the planet anomalywise by far covering nearly all of Canada and moving into the N Rockies/Plains as well as the upper MW on 12/22. There's also a restrengtheing of the -AO. There is once again a 1032 mb high in NW Canada. Remember that this is hour 360 of a 50 member ensemble run showing this strong of a high. It is then poised to move much further down into the US with eyes quite possibly on the SE US by no later than Christmas. I'm officially repumped like I was in late Nov in advance of the current cold.
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How well did the EPS handle, in advance, the current cold we are experiencing compared to what is now being forecasted for late December?
 
SD said:
Can't wait to get a SE ridge for Christmas

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:(

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png
 
SD said:
Can't wait to get a SE ridge for Christmas

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It’s coming. I don’t think we see the pattern repeat...I could be wrong and we’ll see.


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whatalife said:
It’s coming. I don’t think we see the pattern repeat...I could be wrong and we’ll see.


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Not sure about a pattern repeat as that is a ways out and things are a bit murky (and frankly, not looking so swell at this particular point in time). No doubt around the 19th things have a probability of getting N to AN in our neck of the woods.
sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif

What will be interesting to watch over the next several days is what the PNA does, as well as the AO and NAO (either or both).
For now, the PNA looks to go negative from about the 16th to 20th, but then tick back up to slightly positive (nothing like what we've seen recently); the NAO looks to stay positive, but not horribly so as we move past the 20th.
4indices.png

A lot to watch, but as Larry has pointed out, there are fish swimming upstream; just hoping they swim down and give all of us a winter from Christmas Eve until at least mid to late January.
Stay tuned ...
 
Shawn said:
Sadly, I haven't seen much if any fantasy storms on the GFS in recent days. This does not bode well through Christmas. What happened to the 13-16th time-frame!
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I am a little bummed that it doesn’t look like I have many snow chances in the next few weeks even though there’s plenty of cold. As I’ve said before though I really don’t except to see much snow until mid January most years. Hopefully the NINA doesn’t mess that up.
 
olhausen said:
I am a little bummed that it doesn’t look like I have many snow chances in the next few weeks even though there’s plenty of cold. As I’ve said before though I really don’t except to see much snow until mid January most years. Hopefully the NINA doesn’t mess that up.
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I think we're going to have to hope this doesn't verify as a front-loaded winter
 
pcbjr said:
Not sure about a pattern repeat as that is a ways out and things are a bit murky (and frankly, not looking so swell at this particular point in time). No doubt around the 19th things have a probability of getting N to AN in our neck of the woods.
sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif

What will be interesting to watch over the next several days is what the PNA does, as well as the AO and NAO (either or both).
For now, the PNA looks to go negative from about the 16th to 20th, but then tick back up to slightly positive (nothing like what we've seen recently); the NAO looks to stay positive, but not horribly so as we move past the 20th.
4indices.png

A lot to watch, but as Larry has pointed out, there are fish swimming upstream; just hoping they swim down and give all of us a winter from Christmas Eve until at least mid to late January.
Stay tuned ...
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That potential late Dec cold into the N US would initially be driven mainly by a -EPO but we could use a +PNA to help drive it down here.
 
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