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Wintry December 23-26 2022 Winter Weather and Cold

I was just reading the Chicago AFD about a crippling blizzard... Might be more of a miserable cold rain ?
 
It’s a Nuke, occlusion around southern MI, 970 range. A sub 995 meso is still on the table, ILM area.
 
GFS still only model showing some backside flakes (east of Apps) and this almost never happens. Temps will be crashing fast but mountains will most likely delay it just long enough for moisture to exit
 
With Thu/Fri I’m hoping that scenario plays out similar to December 12, 2010. I think that was a cutter where the front swept thru early Sunday morning and temps dropped rapidly from the low 50s to the upper 20s w/ NW flow snow showers. I got lucky and got about 1/2 inch from a couple heavy snow showers. Not sure if the airport got much of anything though.
 
metwannabe said:
I'm actually concerned that's too big of a west jump already this far out lol
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Yep, but we need something to focus on..

Here's the last part of RAH's discussion:
"There is then the potential for another shortwave or two to rotate
through the trough Sun-Tue before heights aloft begin to recover
next week, but currently moisture and all precip remain offshore.
Temps will be slow to recover with highs in the 30s and lows in the
teens and 20s through Monday."
 
FFC mentions possibility of a High Wind Watch/Warning because of the strong wind gradient expected. It wasn’t mentioned in this morning disco, but previous ones did also mention Wind Chill Advisories were likely for Friday/Christmas Eve.

National Weather Service

forecast.weather.gov forecast.weather.gov
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Ugh I don’t wanna get sucked into something that’s only got pixie dust around it.. give me a full cycle today of good 500 vort looks and anyone other than the gfs showing something at the surface along with some more ensemble support .. and then I’ll raise an eyebrow
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Yeah at this point the gfs is not to be trusted as it stayed on its island for far too long regarding the 23rd storm.
 
Shaggy said:
Yeah at this point the gfs is not to be trusted as it stayed on its island for far too long regarding the 23rd storm.
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True but it had the 23rd storm off the coast and look where it ended up lol. It's still too early for my liking to see anything pop and start trending NW just yet
 
So looking at the 06z GFS 500mb vorticity maps, it looks to me that the piece of energy that is capable of spawning a low off the SE coast is separate from the other wave we've been watching. There is more separation and it originates from the Northern stream.

If at all possible, it would be nice for that energy to slow down and bundle with the Southern wave (more concisely) to start a low pressure system around Northern Florida before creeping up the coast.
 
Of note to go with my last post above, the 00z CMC also has the idea of dropping a substantial piece down also:

xx.PNG

With that said; I'd be looking for anything from the big models later today in the 26-28th time-frame.
 
MMFS was down yesterday or in “experimental mode” while I did some investigating into why it made mistakes similar to GFS (too far east) with the 23rd system, and made notes for the next upgrade.

Here’s the 00z snowfall map-
78D560E1-1462-4B71-9E51-05DFA60B07F9.jpeg

Obviously the 23rd threat has been gone for most of us for a couple of days now. The potential on 26th-27th may be enticing, but the first system needs to get out of the way so the second one can have some separation.
 
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