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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
Just saying, If we retract the pacific jet any, that warmth is gonna come to a end rather quick lol
packfan98
Moderator
I’ve been looking at the models and seeing not a terrible 5H pattern, but no cold air to work with. Where will the cold air come from?
iGRXY
Member
Whenever you doubt the wedge, you’re already losing. It’ll come. 70’s will quickly switch to 45 and rain in a blink of an eye. Happens too often
It’s pacific polar derived
Itryatgolf
Member
I think you meant extend unless this is a totally different situation
Sorry but that’s not a wedge pattern, there’s no SE Canada vortex, but a SE Canada torch, maybe when the pattern initially switches, but mid on, no. there’s no high pressure feed from Alaska. the pacific trough doesn’t allow Arctic high pressure to enter Canada. It’s different when you have a -EPO/-WPO coupled to a -PNA, but Theres a +EPO/+WPO here with a -PNA. There’s literally no cold on our side of the globe with this look
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I think we’re burning through at least the first week of January. It does look like cold comes back after the first ten days of the month on the CFS. We’ll see, I guess.
No. We look to overextend the pacific jet due to much +EAMT, it’s a SPV slow killer, but we actually need the pacific jet to calm down via retraction or a weak -EAMT event, that way we back back the Alaskan low off and build heights our west/in western Canada
Itryatgolf
Member
Hopefully we can get what we need to get colder again in January then
It’s worth noting Those looks with Alaskan lows /-PNAs often mean robust severe weather events for the western Southeast since there’s nothing stopping return flow like high pressure in the NE, and AK vortexes favor cutoff lows
Good Ole JB said warm until around 10th then cold coming but who pays attention to him.
JHS
Member
We may have something in the Carolinas too if things go just right. Some models bring dewpoints up to the mid 60's east of the mountains in both states.
Gives me January 2021 vibes
As said before, these models have been so bad I don't believe anything. Right now the first week of January could be warm and dry (as alluded to above) or cold and snowy.
Here's the 12z CFS for day 18:
Here's the 12z CFS for day 18:
That’s basically what happened in January 2011. If you remember we had a pretty good warm up a few days after the Christmas storm and it was fairly mild going into the New Year before the pattern switched back to cold and we had that long tracked storm around the 10th. The good news is that both AO and NAO look to start dropping quickly negative again after spending a few days in neutral territory later next week. So it doesn’t look like the PV is gonna start getting really wound up anytime soon.
It very much could. La Niña years are know to screw up one of the winter months with SER and stale warm pacific air zonal crap. But it doesn’t stay like that forever so I’m glad we look to get it to start January when we then have great climo odds after for when the pattern wants to flip again.
Honestly I’m fine to just scrub the pattern completely and start from scratch! Maybe get in a fun severe threat or two while we’re at it to keep things interesting.
I read recently that it looks like the ENSO will be in a neutral state by the time we get the February. Do you think that will have any effect on the back half of winter?
It takes a little bit for large scale forcing to effect things downstream.. by the time we get to February we’re in the back half of things and would think if there is an enso shift it would effect things for the summer time and beyond
That’s I thought, but dang if some of the patterns we’ve seen in the late fall and now early winter don’t seem more of what you expect in a neutral ENSO.
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Euro control has Charlotte missing a record high by four degrees on NYD.
Yeah pattern favors a period with strong southerly flow and even severe weather given the right set up.. but that will feel pretty damn nice after all this cold we have been through and will go through over the next week.
NCSNOW
Member
My January Forecast for Greensboro is + .05, half a degree Above Normal.
Torch 
GoDuke
Member
Thought this cold had staying power?
SnowNiner
Member
The models for January look pretty horrible, with an Alaskan low. So, have we concluded what went wrong yet? Our +EMT jet extension goodness looks to last about a week.
Overextended pacific jet.
No, it’s lasting way more than a week. We’re just going to overextend the pacific jet and go zonal and mild. I mentioned that as a fail possibility a couple times along with grit. It’s going to put pressure on the SPV though
SnowNiner
Member
I can't post it from my phone for some reason but the EPS didn't look too far east with the jet, but it seems to just be too much.
Hopefully January will continue the theme of blocking, over the top and a weak PV, and that Alaska low is temporary. Yuck. ?
GoDuke
Member
So this is breaking down the Greenland block?
NCSNOW
Member
Yea , I think around 12/11-12/13, Ill have to go back and check. But that's when Gboro started hitting BN on the means. It will definitely stay BN through almost New years eve at least. So it will be close to a 2 week stretch of consecutive BN days. No frozen precip outside of Frost mind you. But the pattern will have delivered on the Cold when all is said and done, tallied up.
That’s a nice QLCS severe look and heavy rain look
Oh and #torch
Oh and #torch
LickWx
Member
That’s a CAD look. CAD source is roasting , CAD galore!
Prestige Worldwide
Member
I wouldn’t be so comfortable embracing a huge torch.
We will have a brief torch for sure. But I agree I’m not all in on long term “extreme warmth” really nice to see the retrograding nature of that trough but would like to see that continued to be modeled as we get closer or we will continue to kick the can. But I think the warm up will be nice after this cold attack we will be dealing with. We can worry about what comes next after.
MichaelJ
Member
Looking at the teleconnections and MJO, it is most definitely a mixed bag in the long term (of course it can and likely will change). Ensembles show us losing the -AO, -EPO, -NAO but getting a slightly positive PNA. The deterministic OP's show a big difference between the EURO and the GFS and it would behoove us to be pulling for the GFS in this fight because the EURO OP is pretty awful. MJO looks to sneak into Phase 7 but then likely enter the null phase and moving ever slightly towards 5 and 6
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packfan98
Moderator
Do you have the temperature anomalies? I keep seeing a huge lack of cold air available on most of the long range modeling I’ve looked at.
Yeah, there's that positively tilted ATL trough and the negatively tilted PAC trough. Easy way to get big snowstorms along the East Coast. It's just the Euro Control, so this is cherry-picking.
