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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Yeah that’s true. Didn’t we have a +NAO last January when it snowed 3 times? I believe we had a +PNA and +NAO
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Yeah that’s true. Didn’t we have a +NAO last January when it snowed 3 times? I believe we had a +PNA and +NAO
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My concern has been the absence of big cold on our side of the globe, outside of a couple of model runs. That said, a nice tall western ridge can establish cross-polar flow and resolve that issue fairly efficiently. In the meantime, weaker cold is still cold and will more than suffice in helping to establish crucial snow cover to our north.
Gefs just caved to the EPS in one run with a western ridge (+PNA/-EPO) 
Hypsometric
Member
What was that about the GEFS being a good model last night? Right or wrong, the way this ensemble varies is not the way ensembles were intended to operate. Only one word can accurately summarize the GEFS: trash.
I mean this is a joke!
Night and day to what it was showing 
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Yeah that was me who said it was good. I was wrong. The eps has definitely been the most consistent model out of them all. Still time to change but hopefully this is a start to good things
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If the EPS is the more correct (and we still aren't sure) look then you can still expect the GEFS to ebb and flow a bit but it's changes generally can subside to less radical swings and narrow more closely to the EPS
SnowNiner
Member
Is it colder with more ridging out west, taping that cold pool?
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I present to you the Canadian Center for Ensemble Forecasting
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I share that because the euro had snow in that very time frame last night on the control run.
Yeah this is beautiful 
packfan98
Moderator
A couple 12z GEFS members with good SE winter storms. Looks like this should be our best mean yet maybe?
ensembles coming in hot 
This is almost a 100% EPS cave, consistent Aleutian low-troughing/+PNA through much of the run 
Much more B.C ridging this euro run around day 7. Let’s see how it progresses 
GFS has been honking for a while with potential. Bad thing is the storms that show up on the long range keep getting pushed back a couple of days.
Yeah this is already better, that cutoff over the pacific about to slow down and pump a western ridge once that Rockies trough ejects 
Folks..
"Pattern change"..
Went from a, (forecasted), *Day of Rain* too NADDA & warmer Temps..
Here on the Coast.. currently..
71F
7% chance of precip, (down from nearly 90% earlier), via NWS..
Partly Cloudy Skies..
SE winds 5~10 MPH Dew @ 62%
"Pattern change"..
Went from a, (forecasted), *Day of Rain* too NADDA & warmer Temps..
Here on the Coast.. currently..
71F
7% chance of precip, (down from nearly 90% earlier), via NWS..
Partly Cloudy Skies..
SE winds 5~10 MPH Dew @ 62%
that’s a sexy evolution 
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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Definitely need to stay focused on how that cutoff trends
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Lots of time to change. But the EPS has been very consistent.
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So it seems that the new GFS upgrade still is bad with pattern changes.
NCSNOW
Member
2 runs in a row from the Crazy Uncle , correct?
This would work.
Monstrous pacific ridge this run, can see cold air dropping down into Canada 
NCSNOW
Member
47 and drizzle here. Typical wedge with 25+ degree spread and we are a 3hour drive apart as the crow flys. Be interested to see how fast the warm front (CAD breakdown) happens here overnight.
tennessee storm
Member
hard believe hardly no talk bout the system and trough coming down esrly
Next week ….shaking up be a substantial significant event models hold
Next week ….shaking up be a substantial significant event models hold
And I'm having the Dallas Cheerleading Squad at My house tonight!
Currently temp dropped 2F,, 68 now.. Partly Cloudy..
I think that huge storm next week is the beginning of a change for the Eastern US. I think once we get to this coming Saturday, we will be seeing some haymakers on models.
NCSNOW
Member
The Front coming through next wed night into Thurs has amazing agreement per all 3 Ops. Canadian even catches enough cold air dammed up for a sig ice storm foothills.
This is something I’ve been noticing for the last week. It is the first system to really get blocked to slow the flow down and the dominoes start falling after that.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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You bet I’m in the bullseye here in Roanoke. We get at least 2 ice storms a winter it seemsThe Front coming through next wed night into Thurs has amazing agreement per all 3 Ops. Canadian even catches enough cold air dammed up for a sig ice storm foothills.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Nice to see the 12z GEFS and 12z GEPS giving into the EPS. It's been a hot minute since I've seen legit -EPO/-NAO simultaneously present
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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End of the Euro certainly wipes the map to set up what would probably be some opportunities.
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
The issue is though, Is that it’s looked like this at hour 240 for the last couple of days. Keeps pushing back.
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