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Pattern Dazzling December

CMC kinda resembles the euro to me
b7c51096d273bf01568b3a6a630d77ee.jpg




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Myfrotho704_ said:
I notice the gfs/cmc is weakening our -NAO but now starting to show tall pacific ridges lol. We just can’t got both to coincide
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I mean the processes that produce the tall western ridge will often weaken the -NAO. Like I said earlier though, I do think the -NAO will have some staying power though it may fluctuate some on strength.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
It’s showing a trend, and I use that word loosely when referring to the GFS, towards higher heights along the east coast and lower heights back west. Big change in the last 48 hours. Unfavorable but no one was really expecting this time period to produce. I think the only concern to be had is the kicking of the can. When does it stop?
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Bet the streak! W Coast trough is here, it’s not a mirage and most runs seem to come back to that after some waffling
 
griteater said:
Yep, CMC is on the Euro train. Looks tasty. GFS gets to where it needs to go late in the run
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What do you think about the prospects of severe weather as the pattern changes? I know from looking back there have been some winter severe weather outbreaks in the southeast as blocking builds in and leads to a colder pattern?
 
Chazwin said:
What do you think about the prospects of severe weather as the pattern changes? I know from looking back there have been some winter severe weather outbreaks in the southeast as blocking builds in and leads to a colder pattern?
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With respect to me commenting on severe weather, this quote comes to mind…

“Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt”
- Abe Lincoln
 
Euro pushing back cooler pattern outside of 240 hours now. EPS warmer than 12z (still not a horrible look). CFS warming trend each run. GFS/GEFS are king. I hate to say it but that’s what happening.


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0z from yesterday on 12/16 2m temps

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12z today on 12/16 2m temps
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0z today on 12/16 2m Temps
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I know many won’t like this post but it needs to be shown. A slow but steady warming trend. I chose this time because because this is when I believe that change was going to occur. I know many of you don’t want to believe it or accept the fact that this is a warming trend but it clearly is. First off, on the EURO and EPS the “pattern change” is getting delayed each run (things you don’t want to see). Also, the cold is getting less and less impressive each run (the 850s are also warming each run). This is obviously a bad trend for cold lovers, but assuring us that the GEFS could possibly be king.


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6z GFS is so terrible it's funny. It would indicate most of us wouldn't see freezing temps until at least day 14. And even that would be a quick hitting cool spell before the warmth comes back leading up to Christmas.

Edit: it does look to move towards a favorable pattern right at the end, which would be a few days before Christmas.
 
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BufordWX said:
Been watching my weather station back home today and I have to say that’s been a pretty persistent band of rain moving through north Georgia all day. Looks like it has been nearly continuous light to moderate rain there since about 1:15 PM

Already approaching 1.75” for the day and looks like a few more hours of rain are possible tonight. In addition to the 2.5” last week and there’s been a pretty decent burst of rainfall these past 7 days.
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I'm waking up to 3.55" in the gauge since yesterday. A major overperformer here.
 
The 0z EPS 850mb Mean is pretty much singing same tune as it was yesterday at 12z for My back yard. Its only about 12-15 hours latter with the arrival of below normal 850 temps from hour 240 all the way out to hr 360 which is as far as it goes. This isn't advertising Vodka cold at the surface, never has. Just shows the potential to run slightly below normal. As far as what can be offered at 500mb to whip up a storm, that's impossible to tell from 10 days out. Really about all one can ask for at this point, especially in light of last years December Roast Fest. See for yourself off pivotal. We would all love to have the Royal Flush pattern ( -NAO,+PNA etc). But right now the Scraps the -NAO is hopefully going to throw us, will be enough to cook something up, if not that then hopefully prevent another Torchmas Season.

www.pivotalweather.com

Models: EPS - Pivotal Weather

View EPS weather model forecast map image for 850 mb Temperature Anomaly [mean] in Continental US on pivotalweather.com.
www.pivotalweather.com www.pivotalweather.com
 
NCSNOW said:
The 0z EPS 850mb Mean is pretty much singing same tune as it was yesterday at 12z for My back yard. Its only about 12-15 hours latter with the arrival of below normal 850 temps from hour 240 all the way out to hr 360 which is as far as it goes. This isnt advertising Vodka cold at the surface, never has. Just shows the potential run slightly below normal. As far as what can be offered at 500mb to whip up a storm, thats impossible to tell from 10 days out. Really about all one can ask for at this point, espeacilly in light of last years December Roast Fest. See for yourself off pivotal

www.pivotalweather.com

Models: EPS - Pivotal Weather

View EPS weather model forecast map image for 850 mb Temperature Anomaly [mean] in Continental US on pivotalweather.com.
www.pivotalweather.com www.pivotalweather.com
Click to expand...
the control run had some snow 24 hours out from the last frame of the euro.
 
NCSNOW said:
The 0z EPS 850mb Mean is pretty much singing same tune as it was yesterday at 12z for My back yard. Its only about 12-15 hours latter with the arrival of below normal 850 temps from hour 240 all the way out to hr 360 which is as far as it goes. This isn't advertising Vodka cold at the surface, never has. Just shows the potential to run slightly below normal. As far as what can be offered at 500mb to whip up a storm, that's impossible to tell from 10 days out. Really about all one can ask for at this point, especially in light of last years December Roast Fest. See for yourself off pivotal. We would all love to have the Royal Flush pattern ( -NAO,+PNA etc). But right now the Scraps the -NAO is hopefully going to throw us, will be enough to cook something up, if not that then hopefully prevent another Torchmas Season.

www.pivotalweather.com

Models: EPS - Pivotal Weather

View EPS weather model forecast map image for 850 mb Temperature Anomaly [mean] in Continental US on pivotalweather.com.
www.pivotalweather.com www.pivotalweather.com
Click to expand...

Keep delaying it 12 hours and we are back to square one.


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NCSNOW said:
The 0z EPS 850mb Mean is pretty much singing same tune as it was yesterday at 12z for My back yard. Its only about 12-15 hours latter with the arrival of below normal 850 temps from hour 240 all the way out to hr 360 which is as far as it goes. This isn't advertising Vodka cold at the surface, never has. Just shows the potential to run slightly below normal. As far as what can be offered at 500mb to whip up a storm, that's impossible to tell from 10 days out. Really about all one can ask for at this point, especially in light of last years December Roast Fest. See for yourself off pivotal. We would all love to have the Royal Flush pattern ( -NAO,+PNA etc). But right now the Scraps the -NAO is hopefully going to throw us, will be enough to cook something up, if not that then hopefully prevent another Torchmas Season.

www.pivotalweather.com

Models: EPS - Pivotal Weather

View EPS weather model forecast map image for 850 mb Temperature Anomaly [mean] in Continental US on pivotalweather.com.
www.pivotalweather.com www.pivotalweather.com
Click to expand...
Yeah… I don’t really get caught up on temperature maps 9-10 days out as to me that’s just too much of a detail. I’m focused on the overall pattern at 500mb because that’s what is going to control everything else. Again the EPS remains steady as she goes, but of course as a stated before, it will ultimately be more of a blend of what we’re seeing from the two suites. This would give us a pattern starting around the 15-16th that favors mostly slightly below average temperatures for us… not Vodka cold, but cold enough for many if an individual storm were to come along.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Keep delaying it 12 hours and we are back to square one.


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The Canadian ens says same thing. Its actually 12 hours faster. So the date is 12/14-12/15. Id circle 12/15. Funny that's almost 2 weeks post the NAO indices starting into the neg territory. Always hears its a 2 week lag. So if we haven't dipped the 850 mean into below normal by 12/14-12/15. Then you can Have the roost in here and Crow us down lol. Or Crow me down. I'm a + PNA fan before a -NAO fan, if I get to choose just one. Grit and Others are -NAO fans between the two. We all like both. But we can score good and often with just the -NAO if it sets up right. End of day, thats all that matters.
 
NCSNOW said:
The Canadian ens says same thing. Its actually 12 hours faster. So the date is 12/14-12/15. Id circle 12/15. Funny that's almost 2 weeks post the NAO indices starting into the neg territory. Always hears its a 2 week lag. So if we haven't dipped the 850 mean into below normal by 12/14-12/15. Then you can Have the roost in here and Crow us down lol. Or Crow me down. I'm a + PNA fan before a -NAO fan, if I get to choose just one. Grit and Others are -NAO fans between the two. We all like both. But we can score good and often with just the -NAO if it sets up right. End of day, thats all that matters.
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That lag time is such a great point, and it’s definitely something we’ve seen many times over the years.
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah… I don’t really get caught up on temperature maps 9-10 days out as to me that’s just too much of a detail. I’m focused on the overall pattern at 500mb because that’s what is going to control everything else. Again the EPS remains steady as she goes, but of course as a stated before, it will ultimately be more of a blend of what we’re seeing from the two suites. This would give us a pattern starting around the 15-16th that favors mostly slightly below average temperatures for us… not Vodka cold, but cold enough for many if an individual storm were to come along.
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Trying to look for vodka cold on an 10-15 day mean is where most people get off track. Too much smoothing 95% of the time.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
EPS was all round better last night in the pacific with more western ridging throughout most of the run
View attachment 124879
View attachment 124876View attachment 124877View attachment 124878
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EPS still looks fine, but the end result still doesn't really get any real cold into the SE through the end of the run. I know the temp maps are not to be taken verbatim, but I like to use them to see general patterns of where the cold air is, where it's moving, and when. Even on the EPS, with a better pacific, the cold stays mostly locked up in the Northwest/Midwest. GEFS is the same with a worse pacific.

I could be wrong, but I'm starting to come to the opinion that this specific -NAO regime is not going to deliver the cold. We're going to need the pacific to open the gates of the cold out west before we have a real chance at a wintery event IMO. If we can get both, with the -NAO keeping the storm track south, that's great, but until the blues spill down the conus, I think it would be really difficult for us to get cold enough.

I have a lot of hope toward the end of the month, but a great pattern is really not visible yet in the models that I can see. Wonderfully early and happy it's only December. And again, if I can get a seasonal December and cold in January, that's an absolute win. So I wait.

eps_T2ma_namer_61.png
 
SnowNiner said:
EPS still looks fine, but the end result still doesn't really get any real cold into the SE through the end of the run. I know the temp maps are not to be taken verbatim, but I like to use them to see general patterns of where the cold air is, where it's moving, and when. Even on the EPS, with a better pacific, the cold stays mostly locked up in the Northwest/Midwest. GEFS is the same with a worse pacific.

I could be wrong, but I'm starting to come to the opinion that this specific -NAO regime is not going to deliver the cold. We're going to need the pacific to open the gates of the cold out west before we have a real chance at a wintery event IMO. If we can get both, with the -NAO keeping the storm track south, that's great, but until the blues spill down the conus, I think it would be really difficult for us to get cold enough.

I have a lot of hope toward the end of the month, but a great pattern is really not visible yet in the models that I can see. Wonderfully early and happy it's only December. And again, if I can get a seasonal December and cold in January, that's an absolute win. So I wait.

eps_T2ma_namer_61.png
Click to expand...
Interesting, weatherbell looks different C076EF9E-DBBB-4218-8128-887D85EDD0C1.png
 
This is funny from James Spann

Ya think maybe???

"We do note global models are showing signals for colder weather for the Deep South over the latter half of December"…
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Interesting, weatherbell looks different View attachment 124881
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This is one of the reasons I don’t pay attention to temperature maps at this lead. It’s like surface maps… depending on who you’re using to get them it can look different based on that company’s programming. We’ve all seen some the crazy outputs that TT has put out there
 
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