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Pattern Dazzling December

griteater said:
Euro Suite is taking baby steps toward the GFS Suite with respect to it wanting to send more of that low pressure from NE Siberia toward Alaska. On the flip side, this was a hardcore west-based Greenland block and east coast trough couplet on this run of the EPS....very nice.

Anecdotally / Historically, I tend to view the GFS Ensemble as being a little better performer on the Pacific side, and with how it depicts the associated downstream pattern over the U.S., while I tend to view the Euro Ensemble a better performer on the Atlantic side. A retrograding Greenland Block like this should be taylor-made for the Euro Ens
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It’s interesting that you mention the Euro suite is a better performer on the Atlantic side… I know that back in the winters of ‘09-10, ‘10-11, and ‘13-14, it always seemed like that when the Euro showed a storm in the 7-9 range you could pretty much take it to the bank that there would be a storm… you just had to wait for the specifics to be ironed out. Those winters of course, saw general patterns in which strong blocking up north dominated the pattern for long stretches
 
NOAA CPC goes mini-boom with Dec 8-14 500mb and Temperature Forecasts

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griteater said:
NOAA CPC goes mini-boom with Dec 8-14 500mb and Temperature Forecasts

i6nZKAg.gif


8mGjSuf.png
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I honestly cant remember a time in my tracking hobby where I've seen so much blocking up top, and lower heights from the Mississippi River all the way across the hemisphere to the far side of Siberia. Not sure 2010 was even that pure, though I'm sure I missed the comparisons a few pages back. I really hope this blocking pattern materializes. Seems like CPC thinks it will. At the very least, I'd bet the Mountains will get to start the ski season with a bang mid December, and I'll be there for it! ⛷️

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SnowNiner said:
I honestly cant remember a time in my tracking hobby where I've seen so much blocking up top, and lower heights from the Mississippi River all the way across the hemisphere to the far side of Siberia. Not sure 2010 was even that pure, though I'm sure I missed the comparisons a few pages back. I really hope this blocking pattern materializes. Seems like CPC thinks it will. At the very least, I'd bet the Mountains will get to start the ski season with a bang mid December, and I'll be there for it! ⛷️

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Oh I can assure you, the Dec 2010 block was hardcore to the max. It had one of the all-time low daily AO values for winter. But no doubt, the one upcoming looks really good if it materializes. This was the 7-10 day forecast image from the Euro in early Dec 2010

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griteater said:
Oh I can assure you, the Dec 2010 block was hardcore to the max. It had one of the all-time low daily AO values for winter. But no doubt, the one upcoming looks really good if it materializes. This was the 7-10 day forecast image from the Euro in early Dec 2010

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Thanks Grit! Interestingly, it looks like it had the same issues in the pacific, Aleutian ridge that this upcoming one may have. Hopefully this one will bully the TPV into Vermont to give us the confluence we need. Lol.
 
SnowNiner said:
That could have been the one....old school TX to Carolinas. I'll just imagine it kept going and wedged us a solid snow.

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It seems like it’s been so long since we had one of those…it used to seem like we would be good for at least one every year or two
 
Chazwin said:
It seems like it’s been so long since we had one of those…it used to seem like we would be good for at least one every year or two
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Yeah Rain Cold and I mentioned this way back, there was a time when I'd watch the weather Channel 5 day planner and whenever I saw pink and blue shades show up in Texas, I knew there was a threat about to come east. That was the basis for my tracking back then. Lol. Most of the time though when that happened, frozen would be mentioned in the local news. It worked. Simpler times. ⛄
 
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This is basically how things are breaking down mid to late December. Cold air finally being able to pour further into the US from Alaska, some pieces of energy from pacific trying to help any pieces of energy that get stuck under the block and shoved south.. then that blocking slowing everything down giving time for amplification and potentially storm development.. a very pretty sight to see right out the gate this winter. A pattern that models go crazy in (so best not to get too attached to any one deterministic model) but that ensembles help smooth out the confusion. If this all keeps up we will be seeing more and more in the way of fantasy runs sooner rather than later. A3DAD9F2-47D4-4FC2-BFC1-D6CA2F93A4C0.jpeg
 
I just had a chance to look at the updated teleconnections, and you can certainly see why the ensembles are going so big on the blocking. The NAO now looks to go between -2 to -2.5 and the AO right about -3. I would have to check but I’m fairly certain those are the lowest December values on each of those since 2010. Even the MJO now to me is starting to look better… it’s getting lower amped as it comes out phase 7 and goes into COD in phase 8… it makes a run through phase 1 and 2 in COD and as it starts to head towards phases 3 and 4 it starts to loop back towards 8, but staying in the circle… the biggest key on that to me though is that it stays low amp
 
It's about to be time for somebody to go up in the attic and dig down to the bottom of that box way over there in the corner and pull out the guarantee stamp that's been patiently waiting for all these years underneath all the faded, yellowed-out pictures and letters and paper...waiting for just the right moment to rekindle that Christmas magic of long ago. It's just about time.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's about to be time for somebody to go up in the attic and dig down to the bottom of that box way over there in the corner and pull out the guarantee stamp that's been patiently waiting for all these years underneath all the faded, yellowed-out pictures and letters and paper...waiting for just the right moment to rekindle that Christmas magic of long ago. It's just about time.
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You in?
 
I'm kinda shocked with the nao and ao dropping to pretty low values, that models aren't more aggressive with cold. I feel imo the big monkey wrench is the flat Aleutian ridge and until that shifts or becomes poleward, it will be longer than we think before cold weather sets in. We shall see
 
Itryatgolf said:
I'm kinda shocked with the nao and ao dropping to pretty low values, that models aren't more aggressive with cold. I feel imo the big monkey wrench is the flat Aleutian ridge and until that shifts or becomes poleward, it will be longer than we think before cold weather sets in. We shall see
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The Greenland block is the key.
 
I will say back in 2010-11 it took until beginning of January before the pattern became ripe for winter storms and that carried on until mid February and then winter pretty much ended.
 
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