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Pattern Winter outlook 2022/2023

Loganelliott99 said:
Brad p releases his forecast tonight btw


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Just find his last 2 and this one won't be any different.
La Nina, low sea ice, warming climate=above average temps and below average snowfall. But will end by saying he may bust on snowfall because its extremely difficult to forecast and it only takes one storm at the right time to get to average snowfall even in a warm winter. Saved you the trouble of staying up for it
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Just find his last 2 and this one won't be any different.
La Nina, low sea ice, warming climate=above average temps and below average snowfall. But will end by saying he may bust on snowfall because its extremely difficult to forecast and it only takes one storm at the right time to get to average snowfall even in a warm winter. Saved you the trouble of staying up for it
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That's exactly right. Well said.
 
Looks really warm Thanksgiving through 1st week of Dec for the south. Will the northern stream return after that for a good chill down?
 
ghost1 said:
Looks really warm Thanksgiving through 1st week of Dec for the south. Will the northern stream return after that for a good chill down?
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Tablesetter
 
Today’s 12z CFS 500mb pattern looks really good for mid December. Think somebody in the southeast could score near or right before Christmas. First 2 weeks of December will a period of moderation. Blocking in NAO region seems like a good bet but need mjo to propagate for 7-8-1 to get pac jet to extend. Pac pattern is bad for couple weeks of December imo


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GaStorm said:
TWC going with the usual above average temp forecast due to La Niña. NC and eastern TN are below normal for their December outlook but not the rest of the southeast for some reason. ?

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December

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They’ve probably been burned a thousand times predicting a below normal outlook for the southeast. Best to just go with what happens most of the time.
 
Stevo24 said:
They’ve probably been burned a thousand times predicting a below normal outlook for the southeast. Best to just go with what happens most of the time.
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I can't remember the last time they predicted below average temps for the southeast. Definitely a safe forecast since it's not easy to get below normal for the whole winter.
 
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GaStorm said:
TWC going with the usual above average temp forecast due to La Niña. NC and eastern TN are below normal for their December outlook but not the rest of the southeast for some reason. ?

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December

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I imagine they’re probably seeing signs that there could be a number of bouts of CAD during the milder periods. These maps always have to be taken with a grain of salt though… let’s not forget their mao going into January this past year. They went with well above average and it busted big time
 
Chazwin said:
I imagine they’re probably seeing signs that there could be a number of bouts of CAD during the milder periods. These maps always have to be taken with a grain of salt though… let’s not forget their mao going into January this past year. They went with well above average and it busted big time
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Just a gut feeling, but I think this winter will follow 1998-99 rather closely. I think this may be the year the CAD area from Georgia to NC gets a major icestorm. Sometime from late Dec into Jan.
 
JHS said:
Just a gut feeling, but I think this winter will follow 1998-99 rather closely. I think this may be the year the CAD area from Georgia to NC gets a major icestorm. Sometime from late Dec into Jan.
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I think we’ll see more alternating between mild and cold than what we saw that year. Since early October we’ve seen this repeating pattern of 10-14 days mild then 10-14 days cool/cold. ‘98-99 was back and forth but it was basically broken down into 4 parts… the first 3 weeks of December were warm and then got abruptly cold with that Christmas Ice Storm followed by another one a week later. Then after thing warmed back up after the first week of January, the second half of February was quite cold into March
 
Maybe this is the year we finally get a big snowstorm. Not a little 2-3 inch one but 8+ inches. It’s gotta happen again at some point right?
 
Stevo24 said:
Maybe this is the year we finally get a big snowstorm. Not a little 2-3 inch one but 8+ inches. It’s gotta happen again at some point right?
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I guess sooner or later. But considering GSP can't even get a double digit year, asking for a double digit storm seems a little much. It's been 30 years this winter since GSP last had a double digit year in 92-93. So the better question is will any of us still be alive when it finally happens again?
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I guess sooner or later. But considering GSP can't even get a double digit year, asking for a double digit storm seems a little much. It's been 30 years this winter since GSP last had a double digit year in 92-93. So the better question is will any of us still be alive when it finally happens again?
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Meanwhile down here in Jonesville we got 12 on Jan 24 2000 and the same in late Feb 2004.. You would have to go back to 1988 I think for the last 10+ snow in Anderson.

Not sure when I'll get that kind of snow again though since I live on the wrong side of I-85.
 
JHS said:
Meanwhile down here in Jonesville we got 12 on Jan 24 2000 and the same in late Feb 2004.. You would have to go back to 1988 I think for the last 10+ snow in Anderson.

Not sure when I'll get that kind of snow again though since I live on the wrong side of I-85.
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Has it been that long? I wasn’t even born in 88 lol
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I guess sooner or later. But considering GSP can't even get a double digit year, asking for a double digit storm seems a little much. It's been 30 years this winter since GSP last had a double digit year in 92-93. So the better question is will any of us still be alive when it finally happens again?
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I didn’t realize it had been that long since GSP had a double digit year. There’s a lot of cities in the Carolinas that are due for a double digit year. I know CLT’s last one was ‘03-04 and I’m pretty sure RDU’s last was ‘99-2000.
 
Chazwin said:
I didn’t realize it had been that long since GSP had a double digit year. There’s a lot of cities in the Carolinas that are due for a double digit year. I know CLT’s last one was ‘03-04 and I’m pretty sure RDU’s last was ‘99-2000.
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Yeah it's been some pretty bad luck for GSP. There have been localized spots in the area outside the mtns get a foot. I know Inman did in Dec 2018 and as others have said the eastern upstate did well in Jan 2000 and Feb 2004. But as far as a storm that brought widespread double digits it's been 30 years!
 
Chazwin said:
I would love to experience a storm like that again…it was the last time that CLT has experienced a snowstorm with temperatures in the teens.
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I will never see a snowstorm like that in my lifetime, even here in Iowa! They Havnt had a double digit single snow event since 2012 or something. So they are rare up here also! ?⛄️
 
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