Of which, the 0z he was taking about or the 12z that looks like garbage?
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Pattern Winter outlook 2022/2023
- Thread starter whatalife
- Start date
Just find his last 2 and this one won't be any different.
La Nina, low sea ice, warming climate=above average temps and below average snowfall. But will end by saying he may bust on snowfall because its extremely difficult to forecast and it only takes one storm at the right time to get to average snowfall even in a warm winter. Saved you the trouble of staying up for it
J1C1111
Member
That's exactly right. Well said.
ghost1
Member
Looks really warm Thanksgiving through 1st week of Dec for the south. Will the northern stream return after that for a good chill down?
Tablesetter
Oconeexman
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Cloudhealer
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Wow. Brad actually projecting above average snowfall. Surprising
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Today’s 12z CFS 500mb pattern looks really good for mid December. Think somebody in the southeast could score near or right before Christmas. First 2 weeks of December will a period of moderation. Blocking in NAO region seems like a good bet but need mjo to propagate for 7-8-1 to get pac jet to extend. Pac pattern is bad for couple weeks of December imo
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NoSnowATL
Member
Bring the heat. This cold sucks.
They’ve probably been burned a thousand times predicting a below normal outlook for the southeast. Best to just go with what happens most of the time.
I can't remember the last time they predicted below average temps for the southeast. Definitely a safe forecast since it's not easy to get below normal for the whole winter.
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I imagine they’re probably seeing signs that there could be a number of bouts of CAD during the milder periods. These maps always have to be taken with a grain of salt though… let’s not forget their mao going into January this past year. They went with well above average and it busted big time
JHS
Member
Just a gut feeling, but I think this winter will follow 1998-99 rather closely. I think this may be the year the CAD area from Georgia to NC gets a major icestorm. Sometime from late Dec into Jan.
I think we’ll see more alternating between mild and cold than what we saw that year. Since early October we’ve seen this repeating pattern of 10-14 days mild then 10-14 days cool/cold. ‘98-99 was back and forth but it was basically broken down into 4 parts… the first 3 weeks of December were warm and then got abruptly cold with that Christmas Ice Storm followed by another one a week later. Then after thing warmed back up after the first week of January, the second half of February was quite cold into March
I guess sooner or later. But considering GSP can't even get a double digit year, asking for a double digit storm seems a little much. It's been 30 years this winter since GSP last had a double digit year in 92-93. So the better question is will any of us still be alive when it finally happens again?
Snowlover87
Member
What this map means is that it will probably be one of the coldest winters on record.
JHS
Member
Meanwhile down here in Jonesville we got 12 on Jan 24 2000 and the same in late Feb 2004.. You would have to go back to 1988 I think for the last 10+ snow in Anderson.
Not sure when I'll get that kind of snow again though since I live on the wrong side of I-85.