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Pattern November 2022

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Brent said:
No flakes here that I've seen but whoa View attachment 123741
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Best band set up a little north of me up towards OKC. Still had about 20-30 minutes of light to moderate sleet/snow mix here. Had a dusting on grassy surfaces and could see/hear the sleet on sidewalks. Most of it has melted by now though. Decent enough winter appetizer.
 
BufordWX said:
Best band set up a little north of me up towards OKC. Still had about 20-30 minutes of light to moderate sleet/snow mix here. Had a dusting on grassy surfaces and could see/hear the sleet on sidewalks. Most of it has melted by now though. Decent enough winter appetizer.
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Monday looking more interesting now. TV met just said there could be up to a couple inches ?
 
looks like a southern slider could be in the works.
 
6z gfs was featured a ridge quite a bit. Cold couldn’t get east of the mountains


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Ollie Williams said:
The GEFS does not agree with the OP. Just looks like cold rain.
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Given this was a month from now this would be a decent southern slider.. oh well ??‍♂️ it’s nice seeing this type of pattern this early .. we probably repeat at some point after we warm up
 
Gulf Low really slowing this boundary down to a trickle today.

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Loganelliott99 said:
Personally, I don’t believe it has potential. There is not support for this.


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You could be right, there’s not a lot of support for this but there are a few members starting to show up now for this timeframe. Something to watch for someone in the southeast. Thats why I believe there’s potential.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Personally, I don’t believe it has potential. There is not support for this.


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The 0z Euro was actually moving into this direction. Also as stated yesterday, there is a lot similarities showing up in the H5 pattern to 11/19/2000. It’s definitely a very long shot right now, but as Webb stated last night, there is definitely some ingredients there for an overrunning event
 
Happy thanksgiving
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GFS solution about as marginal as it gets but it’s enough to get it done for some areas of the SE. Ensembles have the storm but keep it mostly as a cold rain.. the key will be if we can bring enough cold air down from previous quick hitting storms to be able to give that final storm a chance at throwing flakes on top of us in NOVEMBER. Still this is a slim chance as of right now ..
 
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Canadian has the cold air but not precip


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Icon has a similar set up just further south with precip. But still snow in areas of the south
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Lots of wave shearing on models today Vs the GFS. Not in a bad spot but the GFS is the most mature progression with the shortwave and it’s the most amped at H5
 
Despite the apparent lack of support from modeled precipitation type output, the general ingredients are absolutely still there for a potential winter storm later next week.

I suspect that the ECMWF + CMC operational are stringing out this upper trough a little too much over my neck of the woods & causing them to be potentially too dry/suppressed over the SE US. These kind of overrunning events have a notorious reputation for sneaking up on you at the very last minute . Often times, the modeled upstream mid-upper level trough to the W-SW is too weak and the weakly forced ascent & associated large-scale light-moderate precipitation from isentropic upglide and modest warm advection is grossly underestimated. I've of course seen a few cases bust the other direction, but I'd anecdotally say more than half-2/3rds of the time, a system like this is going to trend wetter/further north inside the medium range. I'd probably bet on happening here, esp since it's the middle of November and it's hard for even the biggest cold shots at this time of the year to suppress the baroclinic zone so much that it keeps any would-be storm offshore to the E-SE. If anything, I'd be more worried about the opposite (potentially) happening.

Jan 28-29 2014, Feb 11 2014, Dec 7-8 2017, & Feb 8 2020 are somewhat analogous overrunning-type examples that immediately come to mind for me of cases where a winter storm seemingly cropped up almost out of nowhere inside day 3.

We'll see. I'll be (sort of) watching this from the sidelines in New Mexico, as I may get some light snow out of it later on Wed night into early Thursday morning.

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