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Pattern November 2022

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Snowlover87 said:
You act like a southerner when it comes to snow. Do most people in Iowa get excited as you do ?
Click to expand...
They hate snow up here! Just like they would hate heat if they lived down South! I get excited about every clipper, the first flakes I see fall every winter, which looks like will happen in the next hour! And I track every storm on the models, just like when I was in SC
Currently 33/drizzle
 
Long range GFS but it's interesting that, despite multiple cold pushes, the freezing mark never makes it east of the apps. I don't really buy that, but then again, that's kinda happened with the upcoming front; I'm only supposed to be below freezing once.

gfs_T2m_us_9.png


This is the most eastward push of any of them

gfs_T2m_us_13.png


gfs_T2m_us_25.png


gfs_T2m_us_29.png


gfs_T2m_us_37.png


I love those mountains, but man they really make it tough for a lot of us to get cold!
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Long range GFS but it's interesting that, despite multiple cold pushes, the freezing mark never makes it east of the apps. I don't really buy that, but then again, that's kinda happened with the upcoming front; I'm only supposed to be below freezing once.

gfs_T2m_us_9.png


This is the most eastward push of any of them

gfs_T2m_us_13.png


gfs_T2m_us_25.png


gfs_T2m_us_29.png


gfs_T2m_us_37.png


I love those mountains, but man they really make it tough for a lot of us to get cold!
Click to expand...
GFS is holding a lot of the cold back west but it is on its own with that look. EURO/CMC/GEFS/EPS all have several pushes of cold air with highs in the 40's and low 50's and lows in the 20's and 30's.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Long range GFS but it's interesting that, despite multiple cold pushes, the freezing mark never makes it east of the apps. I don't really buy that, but then again, that's kinda happened with the upcoming front; I'm only supposed to be below freezing once.

gfs_T2m_us_9.png


This is the most eastward push of any of them

gfs_T2m_us_13.png


gfs_T2m_us_25.png


gfs_T2m_us_29.png


gfs_T2m_us_37.png


I love those mountains, but man they really make it tough for a lot of us to get cold!
Click to expand...
I totally buy it. Trough axys stays over the center of the country. Cold shots sink south through the plains and retreat northeast. Very typical pattern of winters of late. So, I buy it from what the model is showing. Is it correct? It fits the trend as i noted above, but we'll see.
 
NWS now mentioning a dusting here possible Monday

Near the time of precipitation onset, surface winds will reverse
to northerly with cooler air sloshing back in. CMC/ECMWF forecast
soundings suggest precipitation will initially be rain in all
areas, but as temperatures wet bulb and the mid level atmosphere
cools in the wrap around, snow will likely begin to develop. As
noted previously, there is still uncertainty with respect to when,
where, and how long a transition to snow would take place. In
general, it appears likely many locations will at least see snow
in the air for a time Monday evening and a minor dusting of snow
is possible for much of the area, but especially over areas of
higher elevation. In those locations minor accumulations
(Trace-1" or so) seems reasonable. There is still a low
probability (10%) that heavier precipitation rates (like the GFS)
could result in higher totals and over a broader area.
 
Brent said:
NWS now mentioning a dusting here possible Monday

Near the time of precipitation onset, surface winds will reverse
to northerly with cooler air sloshing back in. CMC/ECMWF forecast
soundings suggest precipitation will initially be rain in all
areas, but as temperatures wet bulb and the mid level atmosphere
cools in the wrap around, snow will likely begin to develop. As
noted previously, there is still uncertainty with respect to when,
where, and how long a transition to snow would take place. In
general, it appears likely many locations will at least see snow
in the air for a time Monday evening and a minor dusting of snow
is possible for much of the area, but especially over areas of
higher elevation. In those locations minor accumulations
(Trace-1" or so) seems reasonable. There is still a low
probability (10%) that heavier precipitation rates (like the GFS)
could result in higher totals and over a broader area.
Click to expand...
Got the Euro onboard! Lockstep with GFS! It’s happening @Brent 36333A22-F84A-4635-934B-06837222CB5B.png2AA42BA7-C6AE-491A-9869-6C80D77E864C.png
 
Chazwin said:
Oddly enough, there are some real similarities in the pattern next week to 11/19/2000.
Click to expand...
I was thinking the same thing.
It snowed here for about 7 hours but the boundary level took forever to cool.
As a result N GVL county ended up with 2.5 - 4 depending upon location.
It was the day after the SC @ Clemson game.
 
Billypg70 said:
I was thinking the same thing.
It snowed here for about 7 hours but the boundary level took forever to cool.
As a result N GVL county ended up with 2.5 - 4 depending upon location.
It was the day after the SC @ Clemson game.
Click to expand...
I was fortunate to get some fairy heavy precip early on with that one. I was living in Concord at the time not far from the Speedway, and we had about an hour of mixed sleet, rain, snow, but when the precip picked up it became all snow very quickly by mid-morning. That ended being a very nice little storm for my back yard. A solid 8 hours of day time snow with about 3” piling up is always nice…it’s the only time I’ve seen anything more than a light dusting in November
 
kinda shocked at the step the 18z EPS took. We might actually have something to track. No crazy support but the change on H5 is much better this run. This would be a big time event a month later because overrunning precip arrives as 850s crash from the strong TPV pressing down. We just are fighting BL temps E1A44949-FAD2-480E-BA63-D455D9E864DE.png5E4BA657-62CF-4207-9E30-424F5867C904.png43B004AF-883E-467F-8DCF-73F87B90CB5C.pngA6D2D635-A49C-4D50-9A7D-6CD9FC23F253.png
 
Cold looks to be here to stay for awhile and some reinforcements coming down the pipe! Trying to build my snowpack up, to help with the SE winter events!26084EB2-44F7-4B1E-BD5A-CFBE0D885C28.png
 
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