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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

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NW/W trend? 18z GFS brings the shield of moisture further inland verses it's 12z run.
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bouncycorn said:
New 18z GFS has a NW shift from 12z. Hopefully that trend will start up soon and we have a classic miller A HSWS by 48-72 hours out ;)
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Andrew, I'm thinking that this system will turn out to be a text book Miller A system.

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WeatherWatch said:
Andrew, I'm thinking that this system will turn out to be a text book Miller A system.

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For now, it's looking like a Miller A-ish system but there's a low in the NE instead of a high. If trends go the opposite direction it could be a miller B, but the system in the NE is traveling faster to the NE.

Another thing is that miller A's usually form earlier and start to mature near Florida (instead of forming at Florida).

I hope the trends continue though.
 
The recently added more realistic snow depth change on tidbits but I still like it...

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This change over started in south central Alabama of you look at the map, into Ga. If this comes little more N/NW with that cold then game on for folks in at least southcentral Bama. Still time to get better and still time for the cold air to filter in quicker.
 
The GFS r/s line knows the contours of the Wake county borders quite well!
 
GFS definitely more amped and colder but I'd hedge my bets on RDU getting fringed w/ some modest snow at best w/ legitimate snow accumulations occurring towards the northwest & western piedmont, including in/around Greensboro-Roxboro and points northwestward (**if at all**)
 
bouncycorn said:
An Atlanta met (David Chandley) said "There will be absolutely no snow. 0 snow. 0 Chance in Metro Atlanta later this week or at all until we get deeper into winter. Stop the rumors.
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All ATL Mets HATE to say the S word. Burns, Mellish Etc..... even if it’s snowing outside there office they will Say it’s just dandruff..
 
Even if it isn't significant, it'd be fun to see token flakes this early, so I kind of hope it ends up being wet enough here to change over a couple times in the day...even with no accumulation.
 
The one positive I'm seeing (& it's substantial) is the southern stream shortwave is slowing down a lot relative to the northern stream vortex. If this continues, it could help establish more cold air in advance of this coastal low and give us a fighting chance. Lots to sort out in the meantime however
 
FWIW, the LRNAM has the trough in the central US much deeper than most modeling... much of the system is just more amped on the LRNAM (which would indicate a deeper trough/sw when it gets to the se)
 
bouncycorn said:
FWIW, the LRNAM has the trough in the central US much deeper than most modeling... much of the system is just more amped on the LRNAM (which would indicate a deeper trough/sw when it gets to the se)
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It's also the LR NAM which is usually dead wrong. Get it within 48-60 hours then ok
 
The utter lack of snow cover to our north (aside from areas downwind of the Great Lakes) and this big low over the Great Lakes really instills confidence this will end up being a significant winter storm for central NC.... Not.
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Webberweather53 said:
The utter lack of snow cover to our north (aside from areas downwind of the Great Lakes) and this big low over the Great Lakes really instills confidence this will end up being a significant winter storm for central NC.... Not.
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It's not easy to get a big NC winter storm with a big Lakes Low. I mean, it can happen, and it's not necessarily a death knell. But in early December with a marginal air mass with no good snow pack up to our northwest, it does make it quite a lot harder. If we ever see high pressure up there and a wave developing over the NE Gulf, then I'll get excited. In the meantime, any flakes we see from this will be a pleasant surprise.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's not easy to get a big NC winter storm with a big Lakes Low. I mean, it can happen, and it's not necessarily a death knell. But in early December with a marginal air mass with no good snow pack up to our northwest, it does make it quite a lot harder. If we ever see high pressure up there and a wave developing over the NE Gulf, then I'll get excited. In the meantime, any flakes we see from this will be a pleasant surprise.
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Yep exactly. In a setup like this we probably are gonna need the coastal low to get very strong and give us a lot of CAA and dynamic cooling to potentially allow us to changeover to snow at the end
 
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