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Severe 4/12 - (?) Severe Weather

Iceresistance said:
Tomorrow could be a sneaky event for Oklahoma & Missouri
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The SPC did upgrade parts of MO to a slight risk and expanded the marginal risk southwest towards our areas in the latest day 2 outlook. Will be highly conditional on if the cap breaks, but still interesting nonetheless.CC4DC94B-0C25-4699-90EA-9E73B0F99073.jpeg
 
What the actual Shrimp?!
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The SPC has a pretty large hatched 30% risk area for Tuesday, stretching from DFW northward to Des Moines / Omaha.
 
That Mississippi Arkansas Louisiana border is intriguing for day 4.
 
Also that plains event not quite sure it's going to be a mega tornado event, your going to see some absolutely massive hail though but, I think the magnitude of the tornado threat is still in question. At this point, just glancing at Low level lapse rates. There pretty low again I don't know a whole lot about plains weather events but seen time and time again in the south where poor lapse rates really cut off tornado potential.

Color me stupid, but your higher confidence tornado event looks to be over the southeast on day 4. Higher ceiling is in the plains but your higher confidence tornado potential at this point is the southeast. But even so it's probably going to be messy and semi linear in the south with your typical prefrontal cells and your messy line producing some decent spinners.
 
All depends on your cap, 3km nam is pretty solid on it FV3 (Supercell printer) is not. But you can kinda gauge your possibilities with those two.

nam3km_ref_uv10m_scus_60.pngfv3-hires_ref_uv10m_scus_60.png

 
HSVweather said:
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It's a case where you gotta prepare for the worst for this event because it could very well come up on the day of the event that the cap is a lot less stronger than forecasted and if you down played it, you gotta start ramping up things which may not get seen in time. Or vice versa either way a pretty stressful forecast coming up..
 
Also often times controlled burns in central America can effect things. it helped April 27th 2011 and made things worse, and then on the forecasted super outbreak of 2019 it made things a lot better and prevented a substantial event, seen a few studies on those effects ?usually worse for the south and better for the plains from what I saw.
 
Seems like almost every system i see pop up this season is borderline moderate or higher risk
 
Wednesday event is starting to remind me of Mayfield or Super Tuesday... In my area, it seems we'll escape the brunt of the system.
 
NWMSGuy said:
You are really good at keeping up with these systems! What are your thoughts on Wednesday? Red Letter Day?
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Not quite sure, but a 30% large risk area 4 days out is worrying. still some questions but I think theres more confidence in a bad weather day in the south for tornadoes than in the plains currently, a bit different setup in terms of divergence aloft and placement of things than out last few events in the south.
 
Something else to consider, your probably gonna have a cold pool over the Mississippi region available for Wednesdays round of severe weather. Tuesday night through early morning a MCS looks to come through Mississippi and Alabama, kind've a precursor to decent severe events.
 
Zander98al said:
Something else to consider, your probably gonna have a cold pool over the Mississippi region available for Wednesdays round of severe weather. Tuesday night through early morning a MCS looks to come through Mississippi and Alabama, kind've a precursor to decent severe events.
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Good point. Not comparing here but I believe that was also the case back in 2011 for most folks in AL with morning storms before the big show later that afternoon/evening.
 
Wow. 18z nam really jumped sbcape in Mississippi, STP 7-8+ widespread near the Mississippi river and into Mississippi. Your probably looking at a significant regional tornado outbreak, one second and I'm going to upload some stuff.
 
Bro the 18z nam is a supercell printer for the Dixie alley wensday namconus_ref_frzn_seus_50.pngnamconus_ref_frzn_seus_52 (1).pngnamconus_ref_frzn_seus_51 (2).png
 
Zander98al said:
Something else to consider, your probably gonna have a cold pool over the Mississippi region available for Wednesdays round of severe weather. Tuesday night through early morning a MCS looks to come through Mississippi and Alabama, kind've a precursor to decent severe events.
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Any moving convection on Wednesday will only lay dow. Outflow boundaries for that afternoon and evening as we plenty time to destabilize …. Don’t be suprise if cape starts go up even more if only slightly as we get closer to event , still like areas se Arkansas / nw miss/ sw Tennessee formtonraod chasing that after noon in the wide open warm sector
 
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