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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

__jump_off_a_cliff___emoticon_by_neek_zique.gif


just kidding...its too early to jump.:p
 
Another note, the upcoming colder pattern could last for a good while. Cold air is dense, which is more of a difficult air mass to move. A good coverage snow pack adds to the dense cold air, making even more difficult for the air mass to move. The tall ridging will have the cold air "locked" in place, which also adds, making it difficult to move. Need to watch for impulses (short waves) at the baroclinic zone for cyclogenesis.
 
12z gfs was great, sustained cold pretty much the whole run, maybe a relax day or so but im ok with that LOL!! Allows more moisture to creep up without being squashed. What more could we ask for for this pattern, its by far the best we had in a long time. Lets keep the positive vibe going on
 
so, I'm going camping in pisgah national forest next weekend. looks like i may be able to leave the cooler at home! :)
 
I'm just looking at basic Euro model but that first cold round at 96 does appear deeper the 0z run not sure what will be play-out downstream

yep definitely colder for SE at 120 compared to 0z
 
Rain Cold said:
Webb, great read and excellent technical detail. Are parts 1 and 2 available to read? You may have referenced them before and I just missed it.
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It also probably would have been useful to graphically show this wrt how convective heating in the mid troposphere generates anticyclonic (cyclonic) potential vorticity above (below) it. (LHR = Latent Heat Release)
Screen Shot 2017-12-01 at 1.21.09 PM.png
 
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noda-wx said:
Will definitely check this out, this was a perfect storm for me. Was in college at Wingate and we got dumped on...being from long island I was kind of used to snows like that but not used to the lack of removal equipment. The entire county was basically shut down for days, all stores within walking distance of campus sold out of beer. It was a giant week long party!

Now, regarding the current models for the 14-16 range...glad we are looking at storm possibilities popping up, but will be even happier when that giant swath of ZR isn't destroying my area. if something like that does develop someone will get crushed with ice though...we'll just have to wait and see.
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Wow, if only that could happen here while I'm up at NC State, I would totally be down to party for a week. I definitely won't be a happy camper if a winter storm decides to strike (& completely screw over Fayetteville in the process) while I'm gone for winter break...
 
pcbjr said:
If you really want to know - in and out ... just wondering if this is a one shot deal or if the pattern will reload and rebound or if the models past 8 days just are having issues ...
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I don’t know and with the way our Decembers have gone of late it’s a one shot deal...But we’ll see!


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This 12z euro run definitely reminds me of this event in January 2016 where cold air chased moisture (anafront) and it managed to change over to heavy wet snow briefly just to the NE of Raleigh and produced an inch or two of accumulation in Nash, Franklin, eastern Warren, Halifax, and Northampton counties.
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Webberweather53 said:
This 12z euro run definitely reminds me of this event in January 2016 where cold air chased moisture (anafront) and it managed to change over to heavy wet snow briefly just to the NE of Raleigh and produced an inch or two of accumulation in Nash, Franklin, eastern Warren, Halifax, and Northampton counties.
View attachment 1680
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Like I said time to start thinking of a metwannabe special lol. Not out there in la-la land either and I believe the GEFS had a couple of members showing the same thing

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metwannabe said:
Like I said time to start thinking of a metwannabe special lol. Not out there in la-la land either and I believe the GEFS had a couple of members showing the same thing

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Yep this is also that infamous "Gee Whiz" storm where NWS RAH sort of jinxed the accumulations that fell and only expected many to see snow (if at all) in the form of "gee whiz it's snowing outside annnnddd it's gone". Rip lol
 
Wonder if it's too early for a thread for next week. The first one on the 7th is just 6 days out.
 
If the models continue to hint of it snowing next week, the thread will be started
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yep this is also that infamous "Gee Whiz" storm where NWS RAH sort of jinxed the accumulations that fell and only expected many to see snow (if at all) in the form of "gee whiz it's snowing outside annnnddd it's gone". Rip lol
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Having a gee whiz storm beats the heck out of a storm that just whizzes on you

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Instead of getting a nice ridge to take over NE Siberia (-WPO), we've decided to keep a big vortex up there in the longer term... Definitely a good sign if you want to see the polar vortex held back from getting too strong over the next several weeks. This stratospheric conduit will continue to apply the pressure on the polar vortex
ecmwf_z500a_5d_nh_41.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Instead of getting a nice ridge to take over NE Siberia (-WPO), we've decided to keep a big vortex up there in the longer term... Definitely a good sign if you want to see the polar vortex held back from getting too strong over the next several weeks. This stratospheric conduit will continue to apply the pressure on the polar vortex
View attachment 1686
Click to expand...

075efdf811f37563b715ba3e94854b5b.jpg


The EPS would agree.



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