• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

Parker said:
Only one Alabama weenie expected 6 inches. Most of us knew from previous experiences what to expect.
Click to expand...

Yeah I moved away in 2014 and I can still do pretty good with setups over there ? i figured you either needed to be in North Alabama or have some elevation it was too borderline
 
Lickwx said:
@GaWx I may be in Savannah Wednesday . Want to take a walk ? Good walking weather ?
Click to expand...

I thought you said you hated GA! ;) Actually, the good WW ends today, unfortunately. Thanks to winds off the ocean, dews will be rising to the sucky 60s Wednesday plus it is expected to be rainy (80% probability per NWS). So, not only is it not good WW, it is the opposite.

Have you ever been here? If you come, I recommend Crystal Beer Parlor near downtown (big menu/good service/great variety/delicious/reasonable prices/good atmosphere in old building with old photos/articles on the walls). Wait time may be long during prime hours though. I think I recommended that place when @metwannabe came for his run:

www.crystalbeerparlor.com

HOME

Enjoy a meal with family and friends at our restaurant in Savannah, GA. We offer a wide selection of Southern-style food, as well as beers and wines.
www.crystalbeerparlor.com www.crystalbeerparlor.com

And that reminds me, what is it with NC SouthernWx folks visiting SAV during terrible wx? When met came for that run in early November, SAV had constant rain, very windy, and 40s with record low maxes. It was so bad that they canceled the longer marathon! So, I’m begging that anyone from NC not ever plan a trip here during hurricane season!
 
Downeastnc said:
Its actually brilliant though, cause the message sent is, we hope for peace but if it does not work out we are prepared to keep at it and we want to secure as much foreign assistance as possible IE we are not going to quit or give up.

Russia is losing, and they know it, that's why they are talking, they are desperate to get something out of this though to prevent it from looking like a massive failure. Zelensky wants them to know that Ukraine is never going to surrender one inch of territory and that they are doing the things they need to do to secure the ability to make good on that.
Click to expand...
Dude your funny. I could've literally stated the move was brilliant and your rebuttal would've been the exact opposite, everyone has a schtick and you do it well. Kudos
 
__nevii said:
@Rain Cold @SD @Myfrotho704_ @GaWx

Have any of you (or others) figured out what it is that leads to constant H5 cool season trough anomalies in the SW? Even poleward areas like the PNW or Alaska can sustain decent ridging for a time with no problem. Yet there is always some type of trough carving out of the SW area and prolonging there ... even during the otherwise +PNA patterns through this winter (i.e. hence the "positive tilt" that probably was key in limiting performance/extent of Jan 21-22 and Feb 4-6 winter systems).

Just stating as it is a tendency I observed that could correlate w/ Southern US winter weather patterns, and I wasn't sure if it was discussed on these wx sites in the past. I have never directly participated on a wx forum until this year I joined ... but I have lurked such sites, as well as look through runs on places like tropicaltidbits, ever since late high school/early college high school (~2014-2016).

*Note: by "SW," I'm including the entire area from the Pacific of California to the Desert Southwest, and south to Mexican Baja and Sea of Cortez areas.
Click to expand...
Welcome aboard! My guess is that it has something to do with SSTs. I mean, we can analyze Nino and Nina patterns and derive analogs for those (in all their various forms: east based, west based, fading, increasing, etc.). But the fact of the matter is, you have a lot of warmth in the oceans. My guess is that it is creating conditions that favor specific convection movements in the tropical Pacific that drive jet patterns, favoring the configuration you've noted. We've seen it much easier to get cold and snow over the last several years in the center of the country than in the SE, for example. Even when we've seen ridging in pretty good spots, like you said, the configuration is off just enough to allow troughing back toward the SW. I think if we can shift the SSTs over time, we can shift that recurring pattern. But that's just me spitballing.
 
__nevii said:
@Rain Cold @SD @Myfrotho704_ @GaWx

Have any of you (or others) figured out what it is that leads to constant H5 cool season trough anomalies in the SW? Even poleward areas like the PNW or Alaska can sustain decent ridging for a time with no problem. Yet there is always some type of trough carving out of the SW area and prolonging there ... even during the otherwise +PNA patterns through this winter (i.e. hence the "positive tilt" that probably was key in limiting performance/extent of Jan 21-22 and Feb 4-6 winter systems).

Just stating as it is a tendency I observed that could correlate w/ Southern US winter weather patterns, and I wasn't sure if it was discussed on these wx sites in the past. I have never directly participated on a wx forum until this year I joined ... but I have lurked such sites, as well as look through runs on places like tropicaltidbits, ever since late high school/early college high school (~2014-2016).

*Note: by "SW," I'm including the entire area from the Pacific of California to the Desert Southwest, and south to Mexican Baja and Sea of Cortez areas.
Click to expand...

Hi Nevii, thanks for asking. I've learned from knowledgeable sources over the last few years that the single most likely reason for the rather prevalent winter H5 "southeast ridge" (SER), which correlates well with SW troughing, is near record/record warm Maritime Continent (MC). Typically in winter, the SER/-PNA is most favored when the MJO, an eastward moving disturbance in the tropics that traverses the planet, is crossing the MC (phases 4 and 5). There's some correlation between the level of warm anomalies of the MC and the % of winter spent in MJO phases 4 and 5. This can easily be seen by looking at the last 12 or so winters, when the % of days in the aggregate spent within phases 4 and 5 increased vs earlier winters. Another factor is that even when the MJO has moved beyond the abnormally warm MC, the downwind response in our area at H5 in some cases is for it to act as if the MJO were still in the MC, thus still favoring the SER/-PNA, due to higher than normal convection remaining in the MC.

So, to summarize, very warm anomalies in the MC (vs surrounding waters) tend to mean these two things that favor SER/-PNA in winter:
1) More time that MJO spends in phases 4/5
2) Even when out of 4 and 5, the effect on H5 in our area is the equivalent of 4 and 5 more often than if MC isn't so warm.

Side note regarding ENSO: La Nina tends to favor SER/-PNA and El Nino tends to favor +PNA. So, if one wants +PNA/no SER to dominate, the best bet is for El Nino without a very warm MC. If one wants -PNA/SER, the best bet is La Nina with very warm MC. Regardless, every winter varies due to other factors coming into play. These are just based on probabilities/tendencies and can be used as general forecasting tools.
 
Last edited:
Say what you want, but some of the annoying excessive "fail", "clown" faces are annoying and really uncalled for. If anything just like a post. Because about 99% of the people doing it or saying incredibly stupid stuff in response are not helping or informing in the threads. I like weather that's why I'm so into it. This shouldn't be a forum to mock others for having a different viewpoint or saying how they see it. Yes sometimes things are a bit too wacky and not the right time or right place but most are not. In my opinion, some of the more well-versed people are becoming semi- bullies to people who are very intrigued and try there best and love weather who post things that give insight on what they see.

Secondly,.. a lot of y'all really take things out of context when I've posted stuff. 6inch snow totals... Super Tuesday... Doomsday..

It's Really not conducive for a welcoming environment. And it's really annoying. Cool you may think it's fun, but keep the banter to banter a possibly life threating situation of weather event does not need poop or fail or clown or stupid commentary.

Quit the cliques and trolls in the actual weather threads please..
 
jackendrickwx said:
@Myfrotho704_ any thoughts on wednesday svr yet?
Click to expand...
Need a couple more NAM runs and the CAMS to come into range, pretty weird setup with the way the forcing is setup and how the QLCS moves in, honestly not 100% sure on coverage or evolution but wind fields are favorable for supercells with curved low level Hodographs and then nice mid and upper level shear, big question imo is the QLCS from AL/MS and how it effects us
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top