• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

If we keep seeing the repeating block and tanking AO I would be willing to bet December will produce for many. I had a cached image of the AO forecast from last week and when I refreshed it today it was even more in the tank. Something has to give!

ao.sprd2.gif
 
Considering that most wintry events here feature marginal near surface temperatures and the bgd climate isn't getting any more conducive, any variable that makes these temperatures less marginal including but not limited to) a feeble snow pack to our northwest which allows incoming arctic air masses to modify appreciably more quickly will hurt our chances for wintry weather. Similar to the argument wrt major tropical volcanic eruptions, ENSO, AO, SSWEs, etc. yes while no single variable guarantees or completely eradicates the potential for a winter storm here, the probability distributions are heavily skewed towards less frequent, large winter storms when you don't have a deep snow cover to the north particularly when the bgd climate is getting warmer...

The 50th percentile snow extent for winter storms in the Carolinas since 2000 is in/around the I-70 corridor (w/ a lot of event-event variability of course), but you'd be very hard pressed to find any major storms that occurred when the snowpack was locked almost entirely into Canada as it is now and will be for the next week or so
 
BillT said:
the deepest single snowfall i have seen was in 1993 here in bama, without even checking i am certain there was NO snowpack anywhere near us when that snow started falling.
Click to expand...

This isn't true at all, in fact as I mentioned earlier the snow cover extent in the week leading up to the March 1993 superstorm had snow cover extending down to about the I-80 & I-70 corridors which is where you should at least expect it to be when a winter storm may threaten the SE US...
Screen Shot 2017-11-28 at 1.17.22 PM.png
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
JB said on his twitter that this December setting up like, 1950, 95 and 2010!
Click to expand...

Not now of course since it isn't, but for once I'd love for JB to say that a current winter month is setting up like a cr*ppy winter month from the past. Just for something different. Has he ever done this? If only Mack would take over his twitter!
 
The entire premise of bringing forward the snow cover argument is to tamper expectations at least in the first week-several days of this pattern change for something substantial to show up in our neck of the woods. Yes we have an amazing looking pattern but this doesn't automatically mean that we'll magically pull a storm out of the hat as soon as a big trough shows up over the east-central US in the midst of a fantastic high latitude blocking pattern...
 
wow Webber, amazing you call my post not true at all then post a picture showing NO SNOW cover anywhere near alabama.......my post was ACCURATE as your own post showed.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The entire premise of bringing forward the snow cover argument is to tamper expectations at least in the first week-several days of this pattern change for something substantial to show up in our neck of the woods. Yes we have an amazing looking pattern but this doesn't automatically mean that we'll magically pull a storm out of the hat as soon as a big trough shows up over the east-central US in the midst of a fantastic high latitude blocking pattern...
Click to expand...

since you corrected my already correct post i must ask what does the word "tamper" mean, i would use temper expectations and have not seen any poster here claim there will be an immediate storm.......
 
BillT said:
since you corrected my already correct post i must ask what does the word "tamper" mean, i would use temper expectations and have not seen any poster here claim there will be an immediate storm.......
Click to expand...

You know that old saying it's not about what you said but about what you didn't say? Yes, no one (besides maybe weatherwatch earlier in the past week or so) has come out and said there could be a storm as soon as the pattern changes, but the overall vibe by many and those aren't as familiar w/ general pattern evolution (even when a great setup is likely abound somewhere down the road) need to lower their expectations a bit...
 
BillT said:
wow Webber, amazing you call my post not true at all then post a picture showing NO SNOW cover anywhere near alabama.......my post was ACCURATE as your own post showed.
Click to expand...

Pulling '93 as a example is about as crazy as you can get. Webb is right that you need some snow pack across the central US for nearly all snow in Bama. It's just the way it is. You can probably find examples where it happened without it, but using an event that will not happen again in our lives is a horrible example anywho.
 
BillT said:
wow Webber, amazing you call my post not true at all then post a picture showing NO SNOW cover anywhere near alabama.......my post was ACCURATE as your own post showed.
Click to expand...

If you actually read the arguments and statements I've put forth on this forum, I explicitly stated (even in my response to you) that the median of events usually has a snow cover somewhere around the I-70 corridor, which is about where it was before the March 1993 event (which I also mentioned), thus there's nothing unusual or dismal about the snow cover extent leading up to the March 1993 superstorm in context of other winter events (as you were trying to tout)... However the snow cover extent going into the pattern change that sets in next week is definitely on the lower end of the distribution preceding winter storms that hit the SE US
 
wow so saying you really need vast snowcover down into the middle of the states is a good comment and i am wrong for showing that isnt always the case.......and get called crazy even, time for me to stop posting and just read.
 
BillT said:
wow so saying you really need vast snowcover down into the middle of the states is a good comment and i am wrong for showing that isnt always the case.......and get called crazy even, time for me to stop posting and just read.
Click to expand...
You don't have to asinine about my response I'm just relaying facts to you as they are. All of what I just said doesn't also go without saying the March 1993 superstorm was one of the strongest extratropical cyclones ever observed in our portion of the Western Hemisphere, the intensity of the precipitation and dynamic cooling it generated was exceptionally anomalous... Storms like that are the exception not the rule
 
Webberweather53 said:
You know that old saying it's not about what you said but about what you didn't say? Yes, no one (besides maybe weatherwatch earlier in the past week or so) has come out and said there could be a storm as soon as the pattern changes, but the overall vibe by many and those aren't as familiar w/ general pattern evolution (even when a great setup is likely abound somewhere down the road) need to lower their expectations a bit...
Click to expand...
No, I didn't say there was going to be a storm right away. At one point, I said that some storms will cut, and some will come along in the southern stream. Also, with storms that cut, sometimes storms can come up along the frontal boundary from the cutter, while the deeper cold air is progressing southward. The east is favorable for storminess with a -NAO and strong blocking.

Sent from my SM-J327T1 using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
WeatherWatch said:
No, I didn't say there was going to be a storm right away. At one point, I said that some storms will cut, and some will be come along in the southern stream. Also, with storms that cut, sometimes storms can come up along the frontal boundary from the cutter, while the deeper cold air is progressing southward. The east is favorable for storminess with a -NAO and strong blocking.

Sent from my SM-J327T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Ok lol whatever you say... You don't think I already know all of this ?
 
From Judah Cohen's twitter page
7d17e11c4bf49050c75c0f157d13a3e5.jpg


Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 
Everybody ... deep breath ... now exhale ... deep breath again ... now exhale

Everybody seems ramped because we're seeing some stuff on models that we've not seen in a long time. Understandable that emotions are high. But no need to let that excitement morph into quibbling about what may or may not ultimately happen ... :cool:

Now, as to the road ahead, this looks enticing ...

sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif


and there may be a better than average chance of some SE precip in there (which at least is a start) ...

sfc_count_sup814_prec.gif


exhale again ...

Off the soap box and back to working ...
 
WeatherWatch said:
No, I didn't say there was going to be a storm right away. At one point, I said that some storms will cut, and some will be come along in the southern stream. Also, with storms that cut, sometimes storms can come up along the frontal boundary from the cutter, while the deeper cold air is progressing southward. The east is favorable for storminess with a -NAO and strong blocking.

Sent from my SM-J327T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
wont be storm for a while to be honest out of this pattern.... boring pattern yoou ask me.... cooler yeah
 
I don't recall reading anywhere where Webber said it can't snow unless there's a snowpack just to the north and west. So where exactly is the disagreement? If it doesn't seem intuitively logical that a snow pack immediately in the direction of the cold air source region is a good thing and is obviously a useful ingredient for a SE winter storm, then I don't know what to tell you. I don't see anybody making that case either. So, I'm not sure where the disagreement is.
 
As much as i want snow, im willing to wait for the right timing. Im glad were headed to fantastic pattern change and also around Christmas time, how long has it been since we had a cold Christmas? We will get our storm soon just be patient, if i spelled that right lol. Another thing, lets not get so emotional and raped up and upset over "snowcover" or "boring pattern" as some say lol. This pattern change coming gets me excited for whats to come. One things for sure the cold is coming. Lets have fun.
 
Anyway, the trends of recurring blocking and PV development in eastern Canada are definitely encouraging. My gut feeling is that the pattern will take some time to produce a winter storm here. Getting cold nearby is the first step IMO, and that is starting to look likely. Let's build the snowpack to the north and get some high pressure in here and we'll be in bidness. :)
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't recall reading anywhere where Webber said it can't snow unless there's a snowpack just to the north and west. So where exactly is the disagreement? If it doesn't seem intuitively logical that a snow pack immediately in the direction of the cold air source region is a good thing and is obviously a useful ingredient for a SE winter storm, then I don't know what to tell you. I don't see anybody making that case either. So, I'm not sure where the disagreement is.
Click to expand...
i pointed out an EXCEPTION to that general rule......and indeed Mr. Webber is implying there cant be a snow right after the pattern changes, i did read all of his posts.....i agree having snowcover to the n and nw really helps the possibility of snow in the se, i also agree 1993 was a very UNusual storm, but since it did happen and there was no snowcover close to bama, 93 shows strange weather can and does happen..........i did disagree when shown the snowcover that the post saying i was wrong was NOT backed up by showing NO snowcover within 1000 miles of central bama...the rebuttal post showed my post was accurate....not here to argue here to learn and share info when i have some to share, so in summary i simply state it is possible to get a large storm in the SE with very little snow cover to our n or nw......POSSIBLE, not likely in fact a large snow storm is the SE is "never" likely but always a possibility....those that read this TY.
 
whatalife said:
I need to be in more counseling session. I’ve been away for an hour and look at the fireworks


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
More like snap n pops! The real fireworks / grenades come when tracking a legit winter storm!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top